银行 存款搬家股市放缓，中小行储蓄回流大行 2025 年 12 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《存款非银化放缓，关注 2026Q1 大 行资负缺口压力—11 月金融数据点 评》-2025.12.13 《测算：BCBS 调整利率冲击幅度对Δ EVE 的影响 — 行业点评报告》 -2025.12.10 《大行 ΔEVE 指标测算及承接债券 能力评估—行业深度报告》-2025.12.8 ——11 月央行信贷收支表要点解读 | 刘呈祥（分析师） | 吴文鑫（分析师） | | --- | --- | | liuchengxiang@kysec.cn | wuwenxin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523060002 | 证书编号：S0790524060002 | wuwenxin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524060002 负债端：非银存款增长放缓，或反映股市脱媒减弱，定存到期持续流入理财 11 月大型银行非银存款下降 8 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The performance of the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices over the past year shows significant fluctuations, with a notable increase in the last few months [1] - The top five industries by yesterday's performance include non-ferrous metals, electronics, communications, basic chemicals, and automobiles, with gains ranging from 1.784% to 3.051% [1][2] Group 2: Fund Management Insights - In October 2025, the performance of industry rotation-type fund advisory products was relatively strong, with stock-type advisory products outperforming mixed equity funds [5] - The average returns for different types of fund advisory products in October were 0.31% for pure bond, 0.41% for fixed income+, 0.01% for mixed equity, and -0.90% for stock-type products [5][6] - Fund advisory products showed a shift in asset allocation, with an increase in exposure to non-bank financials and non-ferrous metals, while reducing exposure to the pharmaceutical and biological sectors [7] Group 3: Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector is characterized by a low interest rate environment and a focus on stable high-dividend assets, highlighting the scarcity of such investments [12] - The investment strategy emphasizes buying high-dividend, defensive stocks while also considering the growth potential and long-term value of banks [12][16] - Recommendations include a three-tiered approach: large state-owned banks for core holdings, banks with strong wealth management capabilities for core configurations, and high-growth regional banks for flexible allocations [16] Group 4: Non-Bank Financials - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching HKD 218.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37% [18] - The trading and settlement fees, which are directly linked to ADT, saw substantial growth, indicating a robust performance in the trading sector [19] - The outlook for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange remains positive, with expectations of continued growth driven by the return of quality assets and sustained inflows from southbound capital [18][19] Group 5: Retail Sector Insights - The baby products retailer reported steady growth in its main business, with revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching CNY 2.725 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [23] - The company is expanding its store network and enhancing its product offerings through partnerships, which are expected to drive future growth [25] - The jewelry retailer experienced a decline in revenue but improved profitability due to adjustments in product and channel strategies, focusing on enhancing operational quality [28][29] Group 6: Supermarket Sector - The supermarket chain faced significant revenue decline in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of CNY 42.434 billion, down 22.2% year-on-year [32] - The company is undergoing a transformation towards quality retail, with ongoing supply chain reforms and store optimization efforts [32][34] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains optimistic as the company aims to improve operational efficiency and adapt to changing consumer habits [32][34]

Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of stable high-dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the scarcity of such assets as a key investment opportunity [4][12] - It discusses the regulatory cycle and the reduction of potential credit risks through local debt resolution, reinforcing the concept of a "stable anchor" for banks [4][15] - The economic transformation from land credit to technology and consumption-driven growth is seen as providing a "growth sail" for banks, particularly in corporate deepening and wealth management [4][18] Policy Background and Investment Context - The low interest rate environment and asset scarcity highlight the attractiveness of stable high-dividend assets, with bank stocks favored for their strong performance stability and high dividend yields [4][12] - The ongoing resolution of local government debt is expected to reduce systemic credit risks, thereby solidifying banks' "stable anchor" [4][15] - The shift towards technology and consumption is anticipated to enhance banks' growth potential, particularly in wealth management and corporate services [4][18] Deep Revaluation of "Stable Anchor" - Bottom Line of Value - The report identifies the stability of earnings, attractiveness of dividends, and sustainability of payouts as key components of dividend value [5] - It notes that the expansion of bank balance sheets and the potential recovery of net interest margins are crucial for long-term value [5] - Enhanced investment capabilities in financial markets and asset circulation are highlighted as factors contributing to banks' stability [5] "Growth Sail" Capability Breakthrough - Elasticity of Value - The report emphasizes the importance of stable and high risk-adjusted return on capital (RAROC) for banks, which reflects their efficiency in capital usage [6] - It points out the advantages of wealth attributes and customer base, as well as strong non-performing asset management capabilities [6] - The ability to adjust and manage financial market investments effectively is seen as a significant strength for banks [6] Medium to Long-term Incremental Capital Drivers - Good Wind with Favorable Conditions - The report suggests a potential trend shift in insurance capital allocation towards bank equities, with a target dividend yield of 3.5%-4% seen as a reasonable baseline [7] - It notes that actively managed equity funds are currently underweight in bank stocks, while asset management companies (AMCs) are accelerating their investments in this sector [7] Investment Recommendations: Hold "Stable Anchor" and Raise "Growth Sail" - The report recommends a foundational allocation in large state-owned banks, with H-shares offering better value than A-shares, particularly for Agricultural Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank [8] - Core allocations should focus on banks that combine stability with strong wealth management capabilities, such as China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank [8] - For flexible allocations, it suggests high-quality regional banks with unique characteristics in specific areas or business lines, such as Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Bank [8] Dividend Value Analysis - The report indicates that the operating income of listed banks grew by 0.91% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit growth of 1.48% [28] - It highlights the significant performance differentiation among banks, with state-owned banks showing stable revenue growth while smaller banks face challenges [28][30] - The report notes that the dividend sustainability of banks is influenced by profitability, dividend policies, and capital considerations, with larger banks maintaining a more stable dividend distribution [41][43]