（来源：谭谈研究） 瑞银（UBS）最近对3000名中国消费者进行草根调研，根据收回的3000份调研报告显示，中国消费者目 前消费倾向还在持续下滑，核心原因在于收入下滑+资产下降带来的财富负效应。 1.居民收入下滑 第一张图是针对 3000 名中国消费者的总收入（包括工资、投资收益、房租收入）所做的调研。结果显 示，工资收入与房租收入的增长均出现明显放缓——其中房租收入的降幅甚至大于工资收入。唯一略有 上升的是投资收入，这与今年 A 股走牛有一定关系。 不过，由于中国家庭的资产主要集中在房地产，加上收入预期不太稳定，受访者在展望接下来 12 个月 时，对收入的信心比 2024 年的调查还要弱，尤其是工资和房产租赁收入方面。这直接拉低了他们对未 来财务状况改善的预期。 别小看收入下滑，它跟消费不是简单的"减多少就少多少"的关系，而是乘数关系——比如收入少了 1 万，消费减少的可能不是 1 万，而是 3 万、5 万甚至更多。 原因有两个：一是手头能花的钱变少了，二是消费倾向也会跟着下降——人们更倾向于把钱存起来而不 是花出去。这正是经济学里的乘数效应，也引出我们接下来要讲的内容。 2.储蓄意愿增强，消费意愿减弱 由 ...

东方证券研究所 黄燕铭 陈至奕 站在2025年末，消费是否能够成为明年宏观乃至资本市场的热点存在很大分歧。尽管投资对于增长数字 而言确实比较重要，但消费很可能会产生超预期的亮点，在这个社零10月单月同比增幅2.9%、资本市 场相应板块信心也较为低迷的时点，对消费无需悲观。 消费结构正在不断向"限额以上"转变。新旧动能转换的背景下，"消费降级"成为热点话题，这一现象理 应带来限额以下消费更好的表现，但与直觉不同的是，当前限额以上受益于政策（地方消费券、"以旧 换新"、消费贷贴息等措施主要都作用于限额以上），增速明显更高，而限额以下增速，不论是商品还 是餐饮，已经有相当长的时间停留在0增长的附近。这并非近期特点，而是长期趋势。拉长周期看，不 论经济增速如何表现，中国居民限额以上消费的占比总体呈现提升趋势，背后是消费品工业化、人口城 镇化的推动，这也有利于更高标准、更高质量的消费供给龙头胜出。 值得注意的是，外资选择彰显了中国消费机遇。一些观点认为汉堡王、星巴克、黛安芬等外资近期集中 卖出控制权或退出中国市场是国内市场规模不足的体现，但恰恰相反。不难发现，外资商品品牌撤出中 国，往往是将品牌、运营都撤出，化妆品最为 ...

Core Viewpoint - JD.com reported a net revenue of 356.7 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.4%. However, the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 6.2 billion yuan, down from 12.6 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The adjusted net profit, not in accordance with US GAAP, was 7.4 billion yuan, compared to 14.5 billion yuan in Q2 2024 [1]. - The revenue growth was driven by strong demand in the "electric products" category, which saw an overall revenue growth rate exceeding 20% [2][3]. Strategic Initiatives - JD.com is actively responding to the "old-for-new" policy, emphasizing its strong supply chain capabilities to ensure stable and sufficient product availability [2]. - The company is focusing on product structure optimization by developing smart home appliances and customized products to meet consumer demands for quality upgrades [3]. Market Competition and External Factors - The management acknowledged increased competition in the delivery sector, with multiple players vying for market share, and emphasized the importance of long-term investment and commitment to improve unit economics [4][5]. - JD.com is enhancing its delivery service by increasing the number of full-time delivery personnel to over 150,000, which aims to improve user experience and order fulfillment rates [4]. User Growth and Engagement - In Q2, JD.com experienced significant user growth, with active user numbers and shopping frequency increasing by over 50% year-on-year, marking one of the strongest growth periods in recent years [13][14]. - The introduction of the delivery service has attracted a younger demographic, significantly boosting the purchase frequency of JD Plus members [13]. Long-term Vision and Innovation - The company is committed to sustainable growth, focusing on enhancing supply chain efficiency and user experience through innovative technologies, including AI and automated logistics [8][15]. - JD.com aims to expand its international presence, leveraging its supply chain capabilities to assist Chinese brands in entering overseas markets while establishing local operations [16][17].

Core Insights - The decline in marriage registrations reflects a growing anxiety among young people regarding marriage, with the average age of first marriage for men at 30.7 years and women at 29.2 years [3] - The housing market is significantly impacted by the decreasing marriage rates, as the traditional concept of a "marriage home" is challenged by high property prices, which are seen as a barrier to marriage [3] - Population structure changes, including aging and declining birth rates, are reshaping the real estate market, leading to a shift in housing demand towards senior-friendly accommodations and a decrease in demand for traditional residential properties [4][8] Marriage Registration Trends - In Q1 2025, marriage registrations fell to 1.81 million couples, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9 million couples, equating to 1,760 couples daily opting out of marriage [3] - The total number of marriage registrations in 2023 dropped below 6.1 million, the lowest since 1978, and less than half of the figures from a decade ago [3] Housing Market Dynamics - In Beijing, the number of newly married households over the past decade was approximately 1.112 million, while new home transactions were only 615,000, resulting in a conversion rate of less than 55% [3] - The housing market in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen is experiencing a significant downturn, with marriage registration numbers dropping over 13% in 2024, leading to reduced demand for new homes [3] Demographic Changes - The aging population is shifting housing demand towards rental or existing housing, with a 30% decrease in demand for new homes among those aged 65 and above [4] - The birth rate remains critically low at 6.77‰, with a total of 9.54 million births in 2024, despite a slight increase from the previous year [3] Regional Variations - Cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu are experiencing stable marriage rates due to population inflow and favorable policies, while Beijing and Shanghai face challenges despite hidden demand from non-resident populations [6][7] - New policies in cities like Shenzhen and Nanjing aim to lower the barriers for home purchases, such as increasing loan limits and introducing low down payment options [7][10] Future Outlook - The real estate market is undergoing a transformation due to demographic shifts, with a focus on "precise matching" of housing supply to demand [10] - Long-term health of the housing market will depend on alignment with demographic trends and economic structures, with cities and companies that adapt to changing demands likely to succeed [11]