同期，德国失业人数显著上升。德国联邦统计局根据基于劳动力调查的初步估计，2025年德国失业人数 增加16.1万人，增幅达10.8%。以失业人口占劳动力人口的比例衡量的失业率，则由上一年同期的3.1% 上升至3.5%。 除了2020年因新冠疫情导致就业人数有所下降外，自2006年以来，德国就业人数一直持续增长，直至 2024年达到历史最高。 德国联邦统计局分析认为，德国经济增长放缓和人口结构变化正在影响劳动力市场。越来越少的年轻工 人入职以替代即将退休的"婴儿潮"一代，而外籍工人的净移民和老年人、女性就业增长带来的国内劳动 力参与率的提高，继续支撑劳动力市场。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经法兰克福1月3日电（记者尹亮） 德国联邦统计局2日发布数据显示，根据初步估计，2025年约 有4600万人在德国工作，年平均就业人数较2024年减少了约5000人。这是自2020年以来，德国就业人数 首次出现下降。 数据显示，2025年，德国制造业就业人数大幅减少14.3万人，下降1.8%；建筑业就业人数减少2.3万 人，下降0.9%。从事农业、林业和渔业的就业人数延续了近年的下降趋势，比上一年减少3000人，下 降0.5 ...

中新社柏林1月2日电 (杨楚瑜马秀秀)德国联邦统计局2日公布的数据显示，2025年德国就业人数约为 4600万，较2024年减少5000人。这是德国就业人数自2020年疫情以来首次下降。 据报道，除2020年受疫情影响外，德国就业人数自2006年以来持续增长，并于2024年达到自1990年以来 的最高水平。 从行业分布看，2025年德国就业形势呈现明显分化。其中，制造业就业人数大幅下降，减少14.3万人， 降至790万人。建筑业就业人数减少2.3万人，降至260万人。只有服务业就业人数实现增长，增加16.4万 人，总人数达到3490万人，占全部就业人数的75.9%。 在服务业内部，公共服务、教育和医疗卫生领域的增长尤为显著，合计增加20.5万人。此外，金融和保 险业就业人数增加1.6万人，其他服务业(包括协会和利益代表组织等)增加2.6万人，而对经济形势较为 敏感的企业服务业则出现了就业人数减少情况。 分析认为，除经济疲软外，人口结构变化带来的影响日益加剧也是2025年德国就业人数下降的原因。随 着大量婴儿潮一代逐步退出劳动市场，能够接替他们的年轻劳动力却越来越少。除此之外，外国劳动力 净流入以及本国人口劳动 ...

在当前低利率持续、权益市场呈现结构性机遇的背景下，"固收+"产品凭借债券打底，权益增强的攻守 兼备属性，成为投资者平衡风险与收益的较优选择。华商基金旗下年度重磅 "固收+"新品华商安元债券 基金（A类：026045，C类：026046）应运而生，该基金拟由华商基金股债全能实力派基金经理胡中原 管理，力争在复杂市场中为投资者带来"稳中求进"的高质量投资体验。 华商安元债券基金拟以不低于80%的基金资产配置于债券资产，构筑基础收益与安全垫；同时以 5%-20%的基金资产灵活投资在股票、可转债及可交换债券等权益类资产，以增强组合收益弹性；此外 该基金还可将股票资产的0%-50%配置于港股通标的股票（基金投资比例及投资策略详见基金法律文 件）。该基金依据大类资产配置框架，通过把握债券、股票市场的投资机会，谋求在控制波动的前提 下，追求资产的长期稳健增值。 华商安元债券基金拟由华商基金多资产投资部副总经理胡中原担纲管理，股债全能背景使得他在管 理"固收+"产品时具备天然的优势。 胡中原 华商基金多资产投资部副总 华商安元债券基金拟任基金经理 华商双翼平衡混合基金经理 局，谨慎下沉信用资质，重点考虑流动性管理。权益投资方 ...

在低利率持续、权益市场呈现结构性机遇的背景下，"固收+"产品凭借债券打底，权益增强的攻守兼备 属性，成为投资者平衡风险与收益的较优选择。华商基金旗下年度重磅 "固收+"新品华商安元债券基金 （A类：026045，C类：026046）应运而生，该基金拟由华商基金股债全能实力派基金经理胡中原管 理，力争在复杂市场中为投资者带来"稳中求进"的高质量投资体验。 华商安元债券基金拟以不低于80%的基金资产配置于债券资产，构筑基础收益与安全垫；同时以 5%-20%的基金资产灵活投资在股票、可转债及可交换债券等权益类资产，以增强组合收益弹性；此外 该基金还可将股票资产的0%-50%配置于港股通标的股票（基金投资比例及投资策略详见基金法律文 件）。该基金依据大类资产配置框架，通过把握债券、股票市场的投资机会，谋求在控制波动的前提 下，追求资产的长期稳健增值。 华商安元债券基金拟由华商基金多资产投资部副总经理胡中原担纲管理，股债全能背景使得他在管 理"固收+"产品时具备天然的优势。 胡中原 华商基金多资产投资部副总 华商安元债券基金拟任基金经理 胡中原擅长于将债券和股票投资在宏观逻辑和产业判断上进行相互印证，并灵活把握两类资产 ...

在成为国人集体学习的标杆之前，泰国商业曾经有一段黑色记忆。 1997年夏天，泰国币值暴跌后的第二周，湄南河畔一座正在施工的49层高楼突然停工。工人撤离，塔吊停在半空，脚手架裸露在烈日下。那座楼叫 Sathorn Unique Tower，后来被全世界称为——"曼谷鬼楼"。 这栋鬼楼如今成为了曼谷的"都市探险目的地" | 来源：daxward.com 之后的十多年里，一批如今耳熟能详的项目因此而诞生：Siam Discovery、Siam Scape、The Commons、Central Park…… 他们把废弃资产、闲置地块、甚至是问题项目，重新激活为了极富魅力的社区商业与公共空间，成为全球存量商业改造的标杆。 而在今天的中国，存量商业的改造，也愈益成为行业关注的焦点。 闲置之殇：结构性过剩的去化困境 当前，国内商业不动产市场正经历深刻的格局重塑 ——严重的结构性过剩，已然成为中国商业地产必须直面的 "成长阵痛"。 即使在地产开发已经大规模降速的这今年，根据万商俱乐部统计的数据，全国规模以上的购物中心的数量，还是从2022年初的5,851座，上升到了2024年 末的7,245座，平均每年新增超400座。 而 ...

Economic Trends - The domestic economy is expected to show six major trends in the second half of 2025 under the backdrop of "stability and improvement" [1] Demographic Changes - A significant decline in the number of newborns is anticipated to continue, driven by young people's financial pressures, such as rising housing costs and high childcare expenses. This will pose unprecedented challenges for industries related to maternity, childcare, and early education [3] - The long-term implications include a shortage of young labor supply, diminishing demographic dividends, and increased pressure on the social security system as the aging population grows [3] Financial Market Dynamics - With declining interest rates, there will be a rapid increase in demand for wealth management products. Deposit rates are falling, with three-year rates dropping below 2% and one-year rates nearing 1.5%. This trend is expected to continue, leading to a significant influx of savings into the stock market, funds, and bank wealth management products [4] - However, in a deflationary environment, the pursuit of high returns often comes with high risks, necessitating caution among investors [4] Rural Development - A trend of returning to hometowns for development is emerging, driven by high urban living costs and decreasing job opportunities. The government's "rural revitalization" strategy provides a platform for returnees to engage in various entrepreneurial activities, such as e-commerce, farming, and rural tourism [6] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is expected to show more pronounced differentiation, with varying price trends across regions. Cities that have experienced significant price declines, such as second and third-tier cities, will have limited downward potential. In contrast, first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may face inevitable price corrections due to high housing price-to-income ratios [7] Employment Challenges - Middle-aged individuals are facing increasing employment difficulties due to a sluggish real economy and shrinking recruitment demand. Age discrimination in hiring is becoming more prevalent, with many companies preferring to hire individuals under 35, making it challenging for those over 40 to find jobs [7] - As a result, more middle-aged unemployed individuals may turn to flexible employment options, such as temporary work or self-employment [7] Impact of Artificial Intelligence - The rapid penetration of artificial intelligence (AI) is disrupting job markets across various industries. Companies are increasingly adopting AI technologies to replace human roles, such as customer service and delivery, leading to significant impacts on traditional employment [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing transformation of China's population structure, highlighting a decrease in the proportion of the population aged 0-14 and an increase in those aged 65 and above, indicating a trend towards an aging society [1][4][5]. Population Structure Changes - In 2024, the proportion of the population aged 0-14 is projected to be 15.81%, while those aged 65 and above will reach 15.66%, indicating a near parity between these age groups [6][8]. - By 2024, 19 provinces will have over 14% of their population aged 65 and above, with 8 provinces exceeding 18%, reflecting a significant increase in aging demographics [1][4]. Regional Population Dynamics - The article identifies three distinct population structure characteristics across provinces: low youth population with high elderly population, high youth population with low elderly population, and balanced youth and elderly populations [9][10]. - For instance, Shanghai has a 65+ population proportion of 20.25% compared to 9.50% for the 0-14 age group, while provinces like Guizhou show a contrasting trend with a 0-14 age group proportion of 21.90% and a 65+ proportion of 12.90% [9][10]. Policy Recommendations - The "Fifteen Five" period will focus on addressing challenges related to low birth rates and increasing aging populations, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive population service system that covers all life stages [11][12]. - Key tasks include promoting positive marriage and childbirth views, improving maternity insurance, and developing inclusive childcare services [12]. Employment and Resource Utilization for the Elderly - The article emphasizes the importance of developing a friendly employment environment for the elderly, suggesting that companies should adapt their workplaces to be more accommodating for older workers [2][13]. - It highlights the need for training programs to enhance digital literacy among the elderly, enabling them to engage in various employment opportunities [16][17]. Opportunities Amidst Challenges - The changing population structure presents both challenges and opportunities, necessitating collaborative efforts from central and local governments to address emerging issues [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to adapt educational resource allocation mechanisms in response to changing population structures, highlighting the importance of promoting educational equity and supporting high-quality population development [3]. Population Trends and Educational Resource Allocation - The current demographic trends in China include declining birth rates, aging populations, and regional population disparities, which necessitate adjustments in educational resource allocation [3]. - The number of students enrolled in junior high schools increased by 941,200 in 2024, marking four consecutive years of growth, while elementary school enrollment decreased by 2.6125 million to 16.1663 million [4]. Educational Resource Configuration Mechanisms - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to optimize the layout of basic education resources, including monitoring changes in school-age populations and enhancing resource supply in urban areas experiencing population influx [5][6]. - Various regions are implementing shared use of school facilities between elementary and junior high schools to address changes in school-age populations [6][7]. Management System Reforms - The article discusses the establishment of a "city-county combined" management system for basic education, encouraging localities to enhance resource allocation and funding [7]. - The article highlights the need for educational management reforms to address the disparities in educational resources between urban and rural areas [7]. Teacher Resource Optimization - Teachers are identified as a critical educational resource, and the article suggests optimizing the management of teachers through a "county-managed, school-hired" system [8]. - Some regions are reallocating teachers from elementary to junior high schools to address the imbalance in teacher supply [8]. Higher Education Resource Supply - The article notes that the school-age population for higher education is expected to continue rising, necessitating efforts to meet the demand for quality higher education [9].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant decline in property prices of old and dilapidated neighborhoods in Wuhan, Qingdao, Dongguan, and Ningbo, contrasting with the relatively stable prices in Beijing and Shanghai due to school district factors [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Property prices in old neighborhoods of Wuhan, Qingdao, Dongguan, and Ningbo have dropped to new lows, indicating a severe market downturn [1] - These cities are not traditional price basements, suggesting that the decline is driven by specific local factors rather than general market conditions [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The decline in property prices is attributed to a combination of policy shifts, urban expansion, and changes in population structure, which have collectively diminished the competitiveness of these old neighborhoods [1] - The lack of competitiveness has forced property owners to resort to price reductions as a primary strategy to attract buyers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market reflects a stark contrast between high-priced urban areas and low-priced regions, highlighting a significant divide in housing affordability and demand dynamics [1][3]. Population Structure - The primary demographic supporting the housing market, individuals aged 25-44, has decreased from 40.2% in 2010 to 31.8% currently, with a continued decline expected over the next decade [4]. - The population of the post-90s and post-00s generations is 120 million less than that of the post-80s generation, facing challenges such as slowing income growth and historically low marriage rates [4]. - The aging population, with over 310 million individuals aged 60 and above, exacerbates demand shrinkage, leading to increased housing supply due to vacant homes left by deceased elderly individuals [4]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - Over the past two decades, developers have constructed 600 million housing units, sufficient for 3 billion people, while China's population is only 1.4 billion, indicating a surplus of over 100% [6]. - The planned construction of 6 million affordable housing units by 2025 will further pressure the market for commercial housing [6]. - High inventory levels are evident, with 760 million square meters of unsold commercial housing in third and fourth-tier cities, leading to aggressive pricing strategies by developers [6]. Policy Shift - The government is shifting its focus towards affordable housing, planning to build 6 million units over five years, which will divert demand from the commercial housing market [8]. - Financial leverage is tightening, with first-time home loan rates dropping to a historical low of 3.05%, but lending standards becoming stricter, effectively closing off speculative avenues for investors [9]. - The introduction of a property tax trial is anticipated, which will increase holding costs and further diminish the investment appeal of real estate [9]. Urban Differentiation - The real estate market is experiencing irreversible differentiation, with core areas in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen seeing slight price increases due to their scarcity and high demand [11]. - Conversely, non-core cities are facing significant price declines, with some areas experiencing a drop of up to 50% from peak values, primarily due to population outflows [11]. - This differentiation indicates a shift from the era of guaranteed profits in real estate to a more selective approach in choosing cities and locations for investment [11]. Conclusion - The debate surrounding the rationalization of housing prices raises questions about whether real estate can still symbolize wealth as it loses its financial attributes, prompting a potential shift towards viewing housing primarily as a necessity rather than an investment [13].