低端白酒

Search documents
口子窖:基地市场稳固,Q1实现稳增-20250429
HTSC· 2025-04-29 04:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 43.05 RMB [7][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.01 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.66 billion RMB, down 3.8% year-on-year. The performance in Q4 2024 showed a revenue of 1.65 billion RMB, up 9.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 340 million RMB, down 7.5% year-on-year. The Q1 2025 revenue was 1.81 billion RMB, up 2.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 610 million RMB, up 3.6% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience in a flat industry demand environment [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 6.01 billion RMB, with a slight increase of 0.9% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.66 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year. The Q4 2024 revenue was 1.65 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, while the net profit was 340 million RMB, down 7.5% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 1.81 billion RMB, up 2.4% year-on-year, and the net profit was 610 million RMB, up 3.6% year-on-year [1][4] Product Performance - In 2024, the revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 5.68 billion RMB, 70 million RMB, and 130 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.1%, -10.4%, and +33.0%. In Q1 2025, the corresponding revenues were 1.72 billion RMB, 20 million RMB, and 40 million RMB, with year-on-year changes of +3.5%, -12.5%, and -9.0% respectively. The company expects that products in the mass price range will perform better due to external environmental influences [2][3] Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin in 2024 decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 74.6%, with Q4 2024 showing a further decline to 74.1%. The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 76.2%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The increase in sales and management expense ratios in 2024 was attributed to increased promotional spending [3][4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in 2025, driven by ongoing marketing reforms and product series development. The expectation is for industry demand to improve and channel confidence to gradually recover, leading to a positive internal and external resonance [1][4]