作者|远禾 数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com） 2026一开年，上证指数已然站上4100点。 与此同时，白酒行业却持续不振。 最近，口子窖还发布了白酒行业第一份2025年业绩预减报告。 预计2025年口子窖归母净利润为6.62亿元至8.28亿元，同比下滑50%至60%，而2024年，口子窖净利润为16.55亿元。 这样一份业绩预减报告的背后，是去年全年，白酒板块整体下跌近15%，"茅五泸洋汾"，几乎全部跌下神坛。 新的一年，持续惨烈的局面之下，贵州茅台展开了前所未有的重大改变，500毫升53度飞天茅台正式上线"i茅台"。 在行业龙头史无前例的"自救行为"之外，各大机构也纷纷在研报中表示，2026年，白酒行业有望出清改善。 但，事情却并非容易。 01 茅台的这一重大改革，从去年年底的茅台酒全国经销商联谊会上，就可一见端倪。 彼时，茅台新任董事长陈华表示，茅台2026年不再使用分销方式。 飞天茅台，正在走下神坛。 效果当然是显著的，根据茅台官方数据，开售仅3天，已经有超过10万人在"i茅台"上抢购了飞天茅台。 1月9日，i茅台再次上新第二款大单品，精品茅台酒，售价2299元/瓶，仍旧迅速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with major companies like Kweichow Moutai undergoing drastic changes to adapt to market conditions, while overall industry performance is declining sharply [3][4][6][41]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The white liquor sector saw a nearly 15% decline in overall performance last year, with Kweichow Moutai's major reform efforts indicating a critical turning point for the industry [6][8]. - Kweichow Moutai's projected net profit for 2025 is expected to drop by 50% to 60%, from 16.55 billion yuan in 2024 to between 6.62 billion and 8.28 billion yuan [5][41]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the combined revenue of 20 A-share listed liquor companies was 317.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%, with net profit down 6.93% to 122.57 billion yuan [41]. Group 2: Kweichow Moutai's Strategy - Kweichow Moutai has launched a direct sales initiative through its "i Moutai" platform, marking a significant shift away from traditional distribution methods [7][11][25]. - The introduction of a stable pricing strategy at 1,499 yuan for new products aims to combat price volatility and improve market control [24][27]. - The direct sales model is expected to enhance profit margins in the long run, despite potential short-term profit impacts due to price control [26][27]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is experiencing widespread inventory pressure, with 58.1% of liquor companies reporting increased channel inventory stress [40]. - The average inventory turnover days for the industry reached 1,424 days by the end of Q3 2025, a 65% increase from the previous year [47]. - The market is witnessing a phenomenon of price inversion, where retail prices are falling below wholesale prices, leading to potential inventory devaluation for distributors [30][33]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The white liquor industry's recovery is closely tied to macroeconomic factors, including consumer demand and national development strategies [51][66]. - The market for mid-range liquor priced between 100-300 yuan is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan, representing a new growth opportunity for the industry [62]. - Companies that fail to adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences may face significant challenges in the upcoming industry reshuffle [63][69].

2026年1月1日9点，飞天茅台（普茅）上线i茅台，经过多次补货，也是半小时即售罄，这拉开了茅台市场化改革的序幕，也拉开了2026年中国白酒三端改 革（酒厂端、经销商端、消费者端）的深刻序幕。 知酒君注意到，在去年12月，中国白酒的前三甲茅台、五粮液、汾酒都召开了经销商大会，酒企领导也在会上宣布了很多重磅的改革措施。茅台集团（股 份）党委书记、董事长陈华定调"以消费者为中心、推进市场化转型"；五粮液集团（股份）公司党委书记、董事长曾从钦声称"改革力度前所未有"；汾酒 集团党委书记、董事长袁清茂提出"真情共鸣，彼此成就，与消费者共创未来"。 虽然四季度的财报数据尚未发布，但普遍认为不容乐观，会延续三季度的消费疲软态势。2026年的春节比2025年晚了将近20天，所以传统的元春促销旺季 对四季度业绩的拉升效果也会比较弱。 经销商大会既是复盘过去一年的成绩与得失，也是布局未来一年的战略与战术，其主题更是直接凸显企业对行情的审慎思考与对未来的预判。 2025年，茅台换帅，陈华首次亮相经销商大会，他也为茅台带来了巨大的变化。他提出"坚持以消费者为中心，全面推进茅台酒营销市场化转型"，结合会 后的系列动作：取消分销、普茅 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing significant pressure in the mid-to-low-end liquor market, with a notable decline in demand and traditional distribution channels facing challenges. The high-end liquor segment shows a smaller decline, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [1][3] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in key areas such as Xi'an and Lanzhou while optimizing its sales channels through a new model combining direct sales, partnerships, and recommendations [1][3] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook remains positive due to potential reform benefits and market expansion strategies [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 163 million yuan, down 17.82% [1] - The revenue breakdown shows high-end liquor contributing 800 million yuan (75.30%), mid-range liquor at 197 million yuan (18.58%), and low-end liquor at 65 million yuan (6.12%) [1] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 49.30%, a slight decrease of 1.22 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.31 percentage points to 15.19% [2] - The company expects revenues of 1.836 billion yuan, 1.968 billion yuan, and 2.164 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 239 million yuan, 256 million yuan, and 284 million yuan for the same years [4][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 43.05 RMB [7][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.01 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.66 billion RMB, down 3.8% year-on-year. The performance in Q4 2024 showed a revenue of 1.65 billion RMB, up 9.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 340 million RMB, down 7.5% year-on-year. The Q1 2025 revenue was 1.81 billion RMB, up 2.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 610 million RMB, up 3.6% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience in a flat industry demand environment [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 6.01 billion RMB, with a slight increase of 0.9% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.66 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year. The Q4 2024 revenue was 1.65 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, while the net profit was 340 million RMB, down 7.5% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 1.81 billion RMB, up 2.4% year-on-year, and the net profit was 610 million RMB, up 3.6% year-on-year [1][4] Product Performance - In 2024, the revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 5.68 billion RMB, 70 million RMB, and 130 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.1%, -10.4%, and +33.0%. In Q1 2025, the corresponding revenues were 1.72 billion RMB, 20 million RMB, and 40 million RMB, with year-on-year changes of +3.5%, -12.5%, and -9.0% respectively. The company expects that products in the mass price range will perform better due to external environmental influences [2][3] Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin in 2024 decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 74.6%, with Q4 2024 showing a further decline to 74.1%. The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 76.2%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The increase in sales and management expense ratios in 2024 was attributed to increased promotional spending [3][4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in 2025, driven by ongoing marketing reforms and product series development. The expectation is for industry demand to improve and channel confidence to gradually recover, leading to a positive internal and external resonance [1][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating a potential upside of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.2 billion RMB in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 290 million RMB, down 15.9% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 800 million RMB, down 4.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 140 million RMB, down 9.3% year-on-year, indicating performance in line with expectations despite external pressures [2][3]. - The revenue structure shows a significant improvement in product mix, with high-end products achieving a revenue of 1.53 billion RMB in 2024, up 4.3% year-on-year, while mid-range and low-end products saw declines of 8.2% and 20.5% respectively. In Q1 2025, high-end products continued to grow, while mid-range and low-end products faced substantial declines [3]. - The company aims for a revenue target of 2.3 billion RMB in 2025, representing a 4% increase, and a net profit target of 405 million RMB, remaining flat compared to 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 13.0%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points, while the gross margin increased by 4.1 percentage points. The sales expense ratio rose by 2.5 percentage points [4]. - For Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 18.1%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin decrease of 3.1 percentage points [4]. Revenue Breakdown - Product revenue in 2024 was 1.53 billion RMB for high-end, 510 million RMB for mid-range, and 130 million RMB for low-end products, with respective year-on-year changes of +4.3%, -8.2%, and -20.5% [3]. - In Q1 2025, high-end products generated 620 million RMB, mid-range 130 million RMB, and low-end 30 million RMB, with year-on-year changes of +8.8%, -30.7%, and -41.0% respectively [3]. Future Projections - The company expects revenue growth of 4.6% in 2025, 6.1% in 2026, and 10.0% in 2027, with net profit growth of 10.6%, 13.9%, and 18.5% respectively [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.67 RMB in 2025, 0.76 RMB in 2026, and 0.90 RMB in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21.8, 19.1, and 16.2 [5].