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国投证券军工及新材料团队:涅槃:两个中周期间的机遇与风险
Guotou Securities· 2025-07-02 06:58
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current time point is at the intersection of two five-year periods, closer to the transition between the fourth and fifth years, with expectations of structural upward marginal EPS after 2025, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][8] - The supply side is expected to experience an expansion period from the end of 2023 to the end of 2026, while the demand side will see a "filling gaps" demand expansion period from 2025 to 2026, characterized by more consumable equipment and a pulse-like rather than growth-type opportunity [2][26] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is anticipated to be a critical five years for global development, with military trade demand becoming a significant variable due to changes in international geopolitical strategies [2][26] Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Cycle Position - The industry is currently in a mid-cycle phase, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" nearing its end, leading to expectations of structural upward movement in EPS and PE due to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [8][9] Section 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply side is projected to expand from late 2023 to late 2026, while the demand side will focus on "filling gaps" and "creating revenue" as core themes for the next five years [15][26] - The demand for military equipment is expected to be more pulse-like, with a balance point in civilian demand anticipated around 2027, supporting price declines [2][26] Section 3: Investment Strategy - Investment strategies are categorized into "filling gaps" and "creating revenue," focusing on completed and pending equipment from the "14th Five-Year Plan," as well as military trade and civilian sectors [29] - Specific attention is given to small-cap stocks in the aftermarket for completed equipment and larger-cap stocks for potential opportunities following event-driven declines [29]