分析师 王泽宇 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523070002 分析师 赵博轩 SAC执业证书编号：S1110525020002 国防军工 战争步入智能时代，全领域全产业链演变加速 作者： 证券研究报告 2025年09月24日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 • 基础层：云端大脑、边缘节点和终端装备的融合协同构设指挥链路，为新质战斗力建设提供强大算力支撑。我们认为，战场形态逐渐转向制智权争夺，这 一方面为AI开拓新的应用方向，军用模型训练推理的增量需求有望驱动算力基础设施建设，另一方面受益于智能装备的需求，端侧算力或打开需求空间。 • 技术层：相比传统装备领域，军工软件产品的发展基数较低，但采购方式更为灵活，定价体系更为开放。我们认为，AI技术的进步有望推动军工软件在装 备体系中的权重提升，或促进军工产业格局迈向更深度的军民融合，产品形态从硬件向软件的革新或为军工市场提供估值重塑的可能。 • 应用层：人工智能的多技术域使得多领域的战争形态产生革新。我们认为，人工智能在军工领域的应用是全景式的，下游装备端或在软件性能加强驱动下， 提高对智能自主作战性能要求、拉动无人装备列装需求。 建议关注：1）算力侧：景嘉微、复旦 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The military industry in China is mature and has significant international market potential, with foreign trade becoming a focal point [1][2] - The end of the 14th Five-Year Plan has catalyzed policies, leading to a recovery in upstream military electronics orders, although challenges remain [1][2] - The 15th Five-Year Plan will commence in 2026, with a goal of military modernization by 2027, emphasizing the need for new combat capabilities [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - Increased global military equipment demand due to rising geopolitical tensions and conflicts, validating the performance of domestic equipment in international markets [1][2] - The integration of AI in military applications is driving modernization, with China aiming for AI development goals by 2030 [1][2][5] - The 2025 military parade showcased advanced military technologies, including hypersonic weapons and unmanned systems, indicating a shift towards joint operations and modern combat systems [1][6] AI Applications in Military - AI applications in the military encompass various areas, including command operations, equipment maintenance, autonomous drones, and logistics management [5][7] - The U.S. leads in military AI, with significant investments in AI companies and rapid decision-making enhancements within NATO [5][9] - China's military AI development involves numerous companies, including aerospace and navigation firms, contributing to a comprehensive upgrade of military capabilities [9] Emerging Technologies and Equipment - The 2025 military parade highlighted new technologies such as AI-enabled drones and ground robots, enhancing overall military effectiveness [8][9] - Specific advancements include lightweight automatic rifles and smart wearable devices for soldiers, improving operational efficiency [8][9] Long-term and Short-term Outlook - Long-term prospects for military informationization and intelligence construction in foreign trade are promising, potentially expanding the domestic military market [10] - Short-term recovery in foreign trade requires time, with the military sector showing thematic investment trends [11] New Production Forces and Trends - Key development areas include commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea technology, which are prioritized in national development plans [12][14] - The deep-sea technology sector is crucial for national security and economic interests, with ongoing advancements in underwater research and resource development [13][14] Investment Recommendations - Focus on military AI industrialization, with attention to emerging themes in commercial aerospace and unmanned intelligence [16][17] - Key companies to watch include those involved in national defense and aerospace, as well as firms specializing in AI and information technology [16][17]

军工板块 2025 年中报总结：Q2 营收利润增速环比向好， 需求结构性反转逻辑加速兑现 20250903 摘要 2025 年上半年军工板块整体营收和净利润增速分别为 3.84%和- 26.7%，但二季度显著好转，表明行业景气度正在回升，订单持续提升 有望进一步改善利润增速。 地面装备、通用配套和电子元器件三个细分方向上半年营收已实现同比 增长，其中地面装备利润端也实现同比增长，电子元器件和电力装备二 季度毛利率同比提升，反映出不同细分领域复苏节奏存在差异。 民参军企业营收增速在一、二季度均实现转正，而国有企业主机厂则呈 现环比回落趋势，但全年维度参考意义更强，表明产业链不同环节的企 业表现分化，小核心大协作格局下，上游企业毛利率环比改善。 毛利率较高的企业面临的降价压力持续，预计未来毛利率在 30%以上， 特别是 60%以上的企业将继续面临价格压力，企业需关注成本控制和产 品升级。 军工行业整体库存有所提升，但电子器件领域营收增速已高于存货增速， 库存水平持续向好，预示着高速增长将从电子器件逐步扩散到其他赛道， 库存水平有望进一步改善。 Q&A 2025 年上半年军工板块的整体表现如何？ 2025 年上半年 ...

Core Insights - The company, Zhimin Da, experienced a 2.32% decline in stock price on August 26, with a trading volume of 230 million yuan [1] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 295 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 84.83%, and a net profit of 38.3 million yuan, a staggering increase of 2147.93% [2] Financing and Trading Activity - On August 26, Zhimin Da had a net financing purchase of 5.5 million yuan, with a total financing balance of 218 million yuan, accounting for 3.43% of its market capitalization [1] - The company’s margin trading balance is at a high level, exceeding the 90th percentile of the past year [1] - The short selling activity on the same day included the repayment of 2,900 shares and the sale of 1,500 shares, with a short selling balance of 8,701 shares valued at approximately 329,800 yuan [1] Shareholder and Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, the number of shareholders increased by 7.98% to 5,306, with an average of 31,592 circulating shares per person, up 37.99% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 52.6 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 31.8 million yuan distributed over the past three years [2] - Notable institutional investors include Guangfa Technology Innovation Mixed A and Changxin National Defense Military Industry Quantitative Mixed A, with significant increases in their holdings [2]

Revenue and Profit Growth - The company achieved significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, with total operating revenue reaching 295 million yuan, an increase of 84.83% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 38.298 million yuan, up 2147.93% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 35.6825 million yuan, an increase of 2901.58% [1] - In Q2, total operating revenue was 214 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.77%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 29.9803 million yuan, up 133.82% [1] Main Business Composition - The company's main business revenue is derived from several key areas, including embedded computers for aviation and other high-end equipment [2] Financial Indicators - The revenue from airborne embedded computers was 200 million yuan, accounting for 67.72% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 53.16% [4] - Other products generated revenue of 61.3986 million yuan, representing 20.83% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 58.58% [4] - The net profit margin was 12.99%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1116.13% [4] - The company's cash flow per share was 0.17 yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 960.06% [4] Accounts Receivable and Cash Flow - The accounts receivable stood at 863 million yuan, which is 4437.75% of the latest annual net profit, indicating significant pressure on receivables collection [4] - The company's cash and cash equivalents amounted to 39.98 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.64%, but the ratio of cash to current liabilities was only 21.92% [4] - The average net cash flow from operating activities over the past three years has been negative, highlighting potential financial pressure [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant recovery in performance for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 295 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.3 million yuan, up 2147.93% year-on-year [8] - The core reason for the performance surge is the concentrated release of downstream customer orders, particularly in demand for airborne, missile-mounted, and unmanned equipment, leading to rapid expansion in delivery scale [8] - The company’s main revenue source remains airborne embedded computers, contributing 200 million yuan, accounting for approximately 67.8% of total revenue, showing a significant increase compared to the same period last year [8] - The company has achieved key breakthroughs in both technology and market, solidifying its leading position in high-reliability embedded computing [8] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 663 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.58%, and a net profit of 96.26 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 27.73% [1] - For 2025, the expected net profit is 111.17 million yuan, corresponding to a staggering growth rate of 471.42% [1] - The report forecasts the company’s net profit for 2025-2027 to be 111 million, 142 million, and 165 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 51, 40, and 34 times [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (看好) for the defense and military industry, marking the first rating of its kind [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the ongoing geopolitical complexities, such as the recent conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, are likely to sustain military trade benefits, leading to an increase in the valuation of the military industry [3]. - China's share in the international arms trade market is expected to continue rising, with a reported market share of 5.8% from 2019 to 2023, as the demand for advanced weaponry remains high [4]. - Sub-sectors such as unmanned equipment and rocket artillery are anticipated to benefit significantly from international conflicts and military trade orders, with specific companies identified as potential beneficiaries [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry is experiencing a favorable outlook due to escalating geopolitical tensions and increased military spending [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The international transfer of major weapons has increased by 3.2% from 2019 to 2023 compared to the previous five-year period, indicating a robust demand for military equipment [4]. Investment Opportunities - Key beneficiaries in the unmanned equipment sector include companies like Jingpin Special Equipment and Aerospace Rainbow, while ammunition-related companies such as Gaode Infrared and Guangdong Hongda are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower construction project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly impact the engineering machinery industry, creating substantial demand for various types of equipment [1]. Group 1: Equipment Demand - The Yarlung hydropower project, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan and a construction volume close to 500 million cubic meters, will create a market space of over 200 billion yuan for equipment, as equipment costs may account for nearly 20% of the total investment [2]. - Different stages of the project will require various types of machinery: large excavators, loaders, and bulldozers will be essential during the initial earthwork phase, while concrete machinery like mixers and pumps will be crucial during the main construction phase. Additionally, tunnel boring machines will be needed for water diversion [3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The engineering machinery industry is currently on an upward cycle, with excavator sales showing positive year-on-year growth since March of last year. The opening of the Yarlung project is seen as a "bonus" that will further enhance domestic demand for engineering machinery [4]. - The core driver of the industry's upward cycle is the replacement of old equipment, which has been ongoing since the sales of excavators turned positive. The Yarlung project will reinforce this upward trend, but the primary factor remains the demand for equipment replacement [4]. Group 3: Export and Domestic Demand - The engineering machinery industry's revenue is significantly supported by exports, which contributed approximately 52% of total revenue last year. The export momentum is improving, with a year-on-year increase of about 11% in June for excavator exports [5][6]. - Emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, are showing strong demand and growth. The European market is also recovering, with a notable year-on-year increase of about 29% in excavator exports to Western Europe [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The combination of a domestic upward cycle, favorable export conditions, and the additional demand from the Yarlung project positions the engineering machinery sector as a high-value investment opportunity. Following a valuation correction in May, the sector is currently at the lower end of its historical valuation range, making it an attractive time for investment [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current time point is at the intersection of two five-year periods, closer to the transition between the fourth and fifth years, with expectations of structural upward marginal EPS after 2025, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][8] - The supply side is expected to experience an expansion period from the end of 2023 to the end of 2026, while the demand side will see a "filling gaps" demand expansion period from 2025 to 2026, characterized by more consumable equipment and a pulse-like rather than growth-type opportunity [2][26] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is anticipated to be a critical five years for global development, with military trade demand becoming a significant variable due to changes in international geopolitical strategies [2][26] Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Cycle Position - The industry is currently in a mid-cycle phase, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" nearing its end, leading to expectations of structural upward movement in EPS and PE due to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [8][9] Section 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply side is projected to expand from late 2023 to late 2026, while the demand side will focus on "filling gaps" and "creating revenue" as core themes for the next five years [15][26] - The demand for military equipment is expected to be more pulse-like, with a balance point in civilian demand anticipated around 2027, supporting price declines [2][26] Section 3: Investment Strategy - Investment strategies are categorized into "filling gaps" and "creating revenue," focusing on completed and pending equipment from the "14th Five-Year Plan," as well as military trade and civilian sectors [29] - Specific attention is given to small-cap stocks in the aftermarket for completed equipment and larger-cap stocks for potential opportunities following event-driven declines [29]

Group 1 - SANY Group's unmanned equipment is participating in the construction of the Xuhai-Fu Expressway, expected to open in July, showcasing high reliability and efficiency [1] - The unmanned equipment has been operational for over 200 days, covering more than 200 kilometers, utilizing a drone swarm consisting of pavers and rollers, integrating advanced technologies [1] - The unmanned equipment significantly enhances production efficiency, allowing for 24-hour continuous operation while improving engineering quality and reducing defect rates [2] Group 2 - Other companies, such as XCMG and Fulongma, are also developing unmanned equipment for various applications, including remote-controlled excavators and cleaning robots, indicating a trend towards automation in multiple industries [2] - The emergence of unmanned equipment is expected to drive industry upgrades, promoting the transformation of the engineering machinery sector towards intelligence and digitalization, enhancing overall competitiveness [3] - The demand for unmanned equipment will necessitate the cultivation of technical talent, supporting the development of related industries and providing intellectual resources for growth [3]