Wind数据显示，7月7日-16日A股市场融资余额八连增，合计增加440.38亿元。融资客积极加仓A股市场，非银金融、计算机、有色金属等行业均获明显加 仓。 对比这两天的行情，也并不是一路上涨。上证从7月10日开始一直走平，这说明有大量的震荡股，实际背后肯定有资金在不断参与，构成了蓄势状态，未来 的爆发在增加。所以眼下机会很多，可别上错车，下错站。 一，散户的错觉 行情好的时候，散户常有种错觉：早涨晚涨都是涨。但真实情况是，80%的涨幅往往集中在20%的时间段里。更残酷的是，多数人会在错误的时点买入正确 的股票，或在正确的时点持有错误的标的——就像我曾在2019年半导体行情中，明明选中了龙头股，却因受不了30%的震仓幅度提前下车，最终错过后面 200%的涨幅。 这里有个血泪教训：没有数据支撑的持股信心，就像没系安全带的过山车。去年跟踪过两只典型个股：A股票在调整期间，"机构库存"数据始终活跃（橙色 柱体持续出现），即便单日暴跌8%，大资金仍在暗中承接；而B股票反弹到半山腰时，"机构库存"突然消失（橙色柱体归零），后续虽然偶有反弹，但再未 突破前高。 如果「机构库存」数据越活跃，那就意味着参与交易的机构资金越多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unique strategic stability of the A-share market in contrast to other global markets, highlighting the current behavior of the RMB and the actions of the central bank in managing capital flows [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Market Dynamics - The article references the "blood bag" theory in financial games, illustrating how the A-share market could be exploited by international capital if not managed properly, especially in the context of high U.S. interest rates [3]. - The central bank's strategy is described as textbook-level, suggesting that it will act when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, attracting global capital to the A-share market [3]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior Analysis - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding institutional trading behaviors, noting that over 3,000 stocks are currently in an "active zone," indicating a positive market cycle where active institutions attract more observers [10]. - The use of quantitative data to decode institutional actions is highlighted, with specific reference to "orange K-lines" indicating institutional inventory and "magenta K-lines" signaling strong buying activity [7][9]. Group 3: Market Signals and Trends - The article discusses the significance of various K-line signals, such as "strong return" and "strong outflow," which provide insights into market movements and institutional strategies [9]. - The presence of "blue K-lines" suggests that institutions are engaging in market adjustments rather than exiting positions, indicating a strategic approach to market fluctuations [7][9].

Group 1 - The international financial market experienced increased uncertainty following recent events, leading to a surge in gold prices, which rose by 2-3% to over $3,400 [1] - The A-share market showed resilience with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 14 points on the first trading day after the holiday, despite a PMI reading of 49.5 in May, indicating economic contraction [1][3] - The real estate market's ongoing downturn is a significant factor, with sales from the top 100 real estate companies declining by 10.8% year-on-year from January to May, and a 17.3% drop in May alone [3] Group 2 - The market's upward movement is primarily driven by institutional investors, making it challenging for retail investors to benefit from the index rise [5] - The concentration of institutional control in the market means that retail investors have limited visibility into the underlying dynamics, akin to a card game where only the dealer sees all players' cards [5][7] - The emergence of quantitative models allows for better tracking of institutional trading behaviors, providing retail investors with insights into market movements [7][9] Group 3 - Special attention should be given to "strong recovery" and "strong sell-off" states, as they indicate potential turning points in trading dynamics [10] - The "instant inventory" data, which recently dropped to over 2,100 companies, serves as a warning signal; a drop below 2,000 would indicate a loss of institutional interest in over half of the stocks [13]

最近是不是被市场搞得晕头转向？一会儿关税加征，一会儿又说不加；上午还在喊利空突袭，下午陆家 嘴论坛又传出利好。这变脸速度，比川剧还快！ 一、消息面为何如此混乱？ 看看这张图就明白了： 西方阵营除了日本，几乎全部都在降息。现在全世界都在等美联储扣动扳机。这种大环境下，短期消息 自然像无头苍蝇一样乱撞。 但聪明人都知道，与其被消息牵着鼻子走，不如静下心来研究大势。就像打牌一样，与其纠结对手每一 手牌怎么出，不如先看清牌桌上的筹码流向。 二、7500亿美元去哪了？ 这里有个惊人的数字：2024年我国货物贸易顺差7680亿美元，但外汇储备只增加了189亿美元。那么问 题来了——剩下的7500亿美元去哪了？ 答案就在这张图里： 这就是著名的"套息交易"现象。由于中美利差巨大，很多企业选择把赚来的美元留在海外吃利息。但一 旦美联储降息、人民币升值，这些钱就会像潮水一样涌回来。 三、机构震仓的真相 现在问题来了：既然有这么多钱等着进场，为什么市场还在震荡？答案很简单——机构在"震仓"。这是 因为大跌机会不大，机构就会借势洗盘。这道理很简单，只是到底哪些下跌是「机构震仓」，这点看走 势，很难看清。 看看下面这个股票： 那么， ...