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特斯拉:永远是领跑者,永远不会是赢家
美股研究社· 2025-08-06 10:23
Core Viewpoint - Tesla has played a significant role in pushing battery electric vehicles (BEVs) into the mainstream, but it has recently lost its leading position to competitors like BYD, despite maintaining investor confidence in its innovation and technology advancements [1][2][10]. Group 1: Market Position and Performance - In 2024, global electric vehicle production is expected to reach approximately 17.3 million units, a growth of over 25%, with China producing 12.4 million units, accounting for 72% of the total [2]. - Tesla's total production is projected to decline by 4% in 2024, from 1.85 million to 1.77 million units, while total revenue is expected to grow by 1%, from $96.8 billion to $97.7 billion [2]. - Tesla's global market share is anticipated to decrease from 19% in 2023 to 18% in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Tesla's total revenue decreased by 12%, with automotive revenue declining by 16% [3]. - Approximately 75% of Tesla's revenue comes from its automotive business, but it is no longer the leader in the electric vehicle sector, with BYD now holding that title [3]. - Total automotive revenues for Q2 2024 were $19.878 billion, with a year-over-year decline of 16% [5]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Tesla faces several risks, including internal operational risks, external threats, and Elon Musk's divided attention due to his involvement in other ventures [1][2][7]. - The company has struggled with timely deliveries, which could impact its ability to launch new products like the humanoid robot Optimus and the Robotaxi service [6][9]. - The reliance on rare earth elements poses a supply chain risk, particularly for critical materials like neodymium, which is predominantly sourced from China [7]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Analysts believe Tesla has potential in areas like autonomous driving and robotics, but it is unlikely to dominate any specific field [10][11]. - The anticipated market size for renewable energy is projected to reach $16 trillion by 2025, but Tesla's current market share in energy generation and storage is still relatively small at $2.8 billion [5]. - Tesla's valuation appears high compared to traditional automakers, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 180, while competitors like BYD have significantly lower ratios [10][11].