提升核心竞争力，血制品龙头加速发展 天坛生物(600161) 天坛生物跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 证书编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 彭娉(分析师) | 021-23185619 | pengping@gtht.com | S0880525040080 | | 郑琴(分析师) | 021-23219808 | zhengqin@gtht.com | S0880525040108 | | 余文心(分析师) | 021-38676666 | yuwenxin@gtht.com | S0880525040111 | | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] 目标价格(元): | 25.82 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (元)： 19.82 [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 18.98-25.86 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(百万元) | 39,192 | | 总股本/流通A股(百万股) ...

Core Viewpoint - The blood products industry, once considered a "golden track," is facing significant challenges in Q1 2025, with major companies experiencing over 20% declines in net profits, contrasting sharply with their strong performance in 2024. This downturn is attributed to a combination of price wars, inventory buildup, and technological substitution [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - TianTan Bio reported a revenue increase of 7.84% to 1.318 billion yuan, but its net profit plummeted by 22.9%. Operating cash flow fell by 65.75%, and accounts receivable surged by 1093%, indicating deteriorating sales collection efficiency [2]. - Boya Bio's revenue grew by 19.49%, yet its net profit decreased by 8.25%, with core products like human albumin seeing price declines of 2.65% to 12% [2]. - Pailin Bio experienced a revenue drop of 14% and a net profit decline of 26.95%, with operating expenses rising to 18.04%, indicating a failure in cost control [2]. - Shanghai Laishi's net profit growth rate fell from 23.25% to -25.20%, highlighting operational pressures despite expansion efforts [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The industry's sudden performance decline is driven by price wars, inventory accumulation, and technological substitution. In 2024, blood product inventory growth (36.02%) significantly outpaced cost growth (7.12%), forcing companies to lower prices to clear stock. The terminal price of human albumin has dropped to 350-380 yuan per bottle [3]. - Although not included in national procurement, regional alliance negotiations and competition from imported products create "invisible procurement pressure," with imported albumin's market share rising to 69% and over 70% in tertiary hospitals [3]. - Disruptive technologies are eroding the industry's competitive advantages, with plant-based recombinant albumin potentially reducing costs to below 10 yuan per gram, halving current blood-derived product prices. Additionally, recombinant coagulation factor VIII has captured a 30 billion yuan market share, further compressing the premium space for blood-derived products [3]. Group 3: Opportunities and Challenges - The reliance on imports and the threat from recombinant technologies make domestic production crucial for overcoming current challenges. Tariffs on imports from the U.S. could increase imported albumin prices by 10%-15%, highlighting the cost-effectiveness of domestic products, which currently hold a 31% market share that needs to rise above 50% [4]. - Leading companies are accelerating technological advancements, with TianTan Bio achieving a revenue of over 6 million yuan per ton of plasma and aiming for a 50% domestic production rate for coagulation factors. Shanghai Laishi is investing 4.2 billion yuan to acquire Nanyue Bio, increasing its plasma collection stations to over 50, with the top five companies controlling over 80% of plasma collection [4]. - However, the disruptive threat from recombinant technologies remains, with the clinical adaptation and market education for recombinant albumin expected to take 5-8 years, providing traditional companies with a valuable window for transformation [4]. Group 4: Conclusion - The blood products industry's challenges are not coincidental but rather a painful transition in market logic. As price wars and inventory pressures push companies towards efficiency competition, the race for survival in this trillion-yuan market will test not only the number of plasma collection stations but also product quality, cost control, and strategic foresight [5].

Investment Rating - Maintain Outperform rating with a target price adjusted to RMB 32.50 [1][9] Core Views - The company has cleared goodwill impairment risks and is expanding plasma collection stations through both organic and external growth, establishing a foundation for future growth. The potential impact of tariffs on imported albumin may benefit domestic albumin products [1][9] - The company reported a full-year revenue of RMB 1.74 billion, a decrease of 34.58%, while net profit increased by 67.18% to RMB 397 million, primarily due to a low base from goodwill impairment in 2023 [1][9] - The product structure is continuously optimized, with blood product revenue growing by 4.32% to RMB 1.51 billion, despite a slight decline in gross profit margin [1][9] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2027 show a recovery trend, with net profit expected to reach RMB 753 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][6] - The company has a projected EPS of RMB 1.16 for 2025 and RMB 1.50 for 2027, with a PE ratio of 28X for 2025 [1][9] - The company has 20 operating plasma stations and plans to increase plasma collection volume to 630.6 tons in 2024, a 10.4% increase [1][9]