Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook on the major fermentation industry in China, highlighting it as a trillion-level bio-economy with diverse application scenarios that will drive the industry's growth curve [3][4]. Core Insights - Fermentation technology is becoming a core application direction in synthetic biology due to its green production, cost advantages, and technological innovations. It utilizes microbial metabolism to achieve sustainable production, significantly reducing carbon emissions and energy consumption [3][4]. - The Chinese fermentation industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by policy support, expansion of the biopharmaceutical market, and technological breakthroughs. The biopharmaceutical market is projected to grow from 218.5 billion yuan in 2017 to 620.3 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 32% of the pharmaceutical market [4][31]. - Future development of the Chinese fermentation industry requires overcoming technical bottlenecks and accelerating cross-sector application penetration, with a focus on transforming from a pharmaceutical-dominated market to a multi-sector collaborative approach [5][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the fermentation industry in China and globally, including product characteristics, technological trends, and competitive landscape [3][4]. Key Drivers - The fermentation industry in China is driven by multiple factors: - Policy support from the government, which includes the incorporation of biological manufacturing into the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the implementation of carbon tax policies [4]. - The biopharmaceutical market's rapid expansion, which directly stimulates the demand for fermentation capacity [4][31]. - Technological advancements such as AI-assisted strain design and high-throughput screening that address traditional fermentation challenges [4][5]. Challenges - The industry faces challenges such as limitations in product concentration and purity, difficulties in strain selection and cultivation, and high production costs. The current market is heavily focused on the medical field, which accounts for 80% of the applications, while emerging sectors like food and agriculture have lower technological maturity [5][34]. Market Potential - The fermentation market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating that the global and Chinese fermentation market sizes will exceed 160 billion yuan and 120 billion yuan respectively by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.5% from 2024 to 2030 [47][53]. Competitive Landscape - The fermentation market is characterized by a high concentration of leading enterprises in the midstream production and processing segment, with a focus on continuous R&D investment and capacity integration to build competitive advantages [34][38]. - Key players include both international firms with established market presence and Chinese companies that are rapidly advancing in technology and market coverage [39][41].

Core Viewpoint - The blood products industry, once considered a "golden track," is facing significant challenges in Q1 2025, with major companies experiencing over 20% declines in net profits, contrasting sharply with their strong performance in 2024. This downturn is attributed to a combination of price wars, inventory buildup, and technological substitution [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - TianTan Bio reported a revenue increase of 7.84% to 1.318 billion yuan, but its net profit plummeted by 22.9%. Operating cash flow fell by 65.75%, and accounts receivable surged by 1093%, indicating deteriorating sales collection efficiency [2]. - Boya Bio's revenue grew by 19.49%, yet its net profit decreased by 8.25%, with core products like human albumin seeing price declines of 2.65% to 12% [2]. - Pailin Bio experienced a revenue drop of 14% and a net profit decline of 26.95%, with operating expenses rising to 18.04%, indicating a failure in cost control [2]. - Shanghai Laishi's net profit growth rate fell from 23.25% to -25.20%, highlighting operational pressures despite expansion efforts [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The industry's sudden performance decline is driven by price wars, inventory accumulation, and technological substitution. In 2024, blood product inventory growth (36.02%) significantly outpaced cost growth (7.12%), forcing companies to lower prices to clear stock. The terminal price of human albumin has dropped to 350-380 yuan per bottle [3]. - Although not included in national procurement, regional alliance negotiations and competition from imported products create "invisible procurement pressure," with imported albumin's market share rising to 69% and over 70% in tertiary hospitals [3]. - Disruptive technologies are eroding the industry's competitive advantages, with plant-based recombinant albumin potentially reducing costs to below 10 yuan per gram, halving current blood-derived product prices. Additionally, recombinant coagulation factor VIII has captured a 30 billion yuan market share, further compressing the premium space for blood-derived products [3]. Group 3: Opportunities and Challenges - The reliance on imports and the threat from recombinant technologies make domestic production crucial for overcoming current challenges. Tariffs on imports from the U.S. could increase imported albumin prices by 10%-15%, highlighting the cost-effectiveness of domestic products, which currently hold a 31% market share that needs to rise above 50% [4]. - Leading companies are accelerating technological advancements, with TianTan Bio achieving a revenue of over 6 million yuan per ton of plasma and aiming for a 50% domestic production rate for coagulation factors. Shanghai Laishi is investing 4.2 billion yuan to acquire Nanyue Bio, increasing its plasma collection stations to over 50, with the top five companies controlling over 80% of plasma collection [4]. - However, the disruptive threat from recombinant technologies remains, with the clinical adaptation and market education for recombinant albumin expected to take 5-8 years, providing traditional companies with a valuable window for transformation [4]. Group 4: Conclusion - The blood products industry's challenges are not coincidental but rather a painful transition in market logic. As price wars and inventory pressures push companies towards efficiency competition, the race for survival in this trillion-yuan market will test not only the number of plasma collection stations but also product quality, cost control, and strategic foresight [5].