Q&A 多款口服环肽药物具重磅潜力，产业链有望充分受益 20251123 摘要 医药行业整体看好，创新药板块现底部反弹迹象，大市值公司跌幅超 30%，中小市值公司跌幅超 50%，是布局明年个股阿尔法的时机。关 注信达生物、中国生物制药等公司，以及歌礼制药和莱凯医药等中小市 值公司。 医疗器械板块三季度收入企稳，利润端承压，但年底至明年高值耗材、 医疗设备和体外诊断领域存在投资机会。高值耗材集采压力释放，创新 驱动价值重估；医疗设备招投标复苏，技术升级和国际化是驱动力；体 外诊断政策扰动出清，出海是主旋律。 中药板块机构关注度提升，中成指数筹码触底，基本面有望在三季度末 或四季度见底。院内中成药企业恢复速度预计快于 OTC 普及类产品。年 底至明年，中成药板块或迎来催化因素，以岭药业和华润三九值得关注。 原料药和 CRO 板块中，康龙化成临床前 CRO 业务受益于全球降息周期 下中小型生物科技公司的需求反弹。普洛药业原料药业务恢复增长， CDMO 业务快速发展，有望开启新一轮成长周期。 今年以来医药行业的整体表现如何？未来有哪些投资机会？ 今年年初至今，医药行业上涨了 13.69%，在 31 个一级行业中排名第 ...

立足于内：稳住国内根基，拥抱创新与整合。①政策展望：改革进入深水区，高质量增长成为常态。 2025年下半年我们重点关注的是药品和耗材集采政策优化、多元化支付及医疗服务价格改革。②制药产 业链：集采优化、积极创新转型，关注供应链安全。③器械：看好进口替代和并购整合机会，积极关注 AI和脑机接口等新技术方向。④关注中药、药店、流通、医疗服务及疫苗等行业经营触底回升节奏及 长期转型升级方向。 开拓于外：把握节奏与路径，积极开拓海外市场。①创新药：中国创新闪耀国际舞台，产业趋势持续强 化。②制药上游及生命科学：积极开拓海外市场，寻求第二增长曲线。③原料药：关税扰动短期有限， 关注行业转型机遇。④器械国际化：坚定看好出海趋势，关注部分创新器械自主销售和BD机会。⑤血 制品出海：静丙赋予血制品出海契机，血制品海外注册持续推进。⑥疫苗出海：模式趋于多元，进度有 望加速。 全球视角：外部挑战加剧，中国医药产业竞争力持续提升。从国际比较优势看，中国具备人口与内需优 势、制造与供应链优势，同时创新能力快速提升，中国资产出海数量也持续提升。美国在创新与早期研 发方面优势明显，同时具有高定价的内需市场。虽然外部挑战加大，但海外市场仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for the pharmaceutical and bioproducts industry in 2026 indicates a potential recovery in demand and improvement in fundamentals and valuations, particularly in the traditional Chinese medicine sector [1] Group 1: Traditional Chinese Medicine - Short-term pressure from the base is expected to ease, with channel inventory clearing accelerating [1] - There is optimism for demand recovery by the end of the year, along with opportunities for fundamental and valuation improvements [1] - The brand extension space for traditional Chinese medicine consumer companies is broad, supported by innovation [1] Group 2: Blood Products - Attention is drawn to the "14th Five-Year Plan" for plasma station construction and industry consolidation progress [1] - Demand for immunoglobulin and factor products is expected to increase, along with new product development [1] Group 3: Vaccine Industry - Focus on the sales improvement of key products and the progress of innovative pipelines [1] - Policy developments and international expansion of vaccines are anticipated to further drive corporate growth [1] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Retail - The transformation and reform in the pharmaceutical retail sector are progressing steadily [1] - Future catalysts for growth are being monitored [1] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Distribution - The revenue side of the pharmaceutical distribution industry is showing steady improvement [1] - Attention is on payment collection and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]

疫苗：经营持续承压，期待销售环比改善及新品贡献 1)看好创新品种未来格局，建议关注创新疫苗管线研发进展。2)政策方面：近期商业保险、医防融合及 行业并购相关政策陆续出台，为疫苗行业未来发展奠定了政策基础，期待后续进展。3)疫苗行业出海： 随着疫苗企业出海事业持续推进，出海动作也在价值链上下游加速延展深化，期待各企业海外市场开拓 进展。4)国资入主持续赋能，关注后续进展。 医药零售：转型变革稳步推进，关注多元催化 智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，中药行业短期基数压力有望缓解，渠道库存加速出清，看好 年底需求回暖，及后续基本面和估值改善机会;创新领域有助构建第二增长曲线，中药消费品公司品牌 延展空间广阔。血制品行业关注"十五五"浆站建设规划及行业并购整合进展，需求端看好静丙、因子类 产品需求端提升及新品研发。疫苗行业关注重磅产品销售改善情况及创新管线研发进展，政策出台及疫 苗出海有望推动企业进一步发展。医药零售行业转型变革稳步推进，关注后续多元催化。医药流通行业 收入端稳健向好，关注回款及"十五五"规划。 中信建投主要观点如下： 中药：着眼长期，静待改善 1)短期行业基数压力有望逐步缓解，渠道调整加速出清 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares indices opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.35%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.03%, and ChiNext Index up 1.79% [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities continues to recommend cyclical sectors such as aviation, oil transportation, and road infrastructure, citing improved industrial production and export conditions, as well as a moderate recovery in consumer data [2] - The aviation sector is expected to see continued recovery in revenue levels due to low supply growth, industry self-regulation, and a low base effect [2] - The oil transportation sector is anticipated to maintain high prosperity driven by multiple factors including OPEC+/Americas production increases and low oil prices [2] - The road infrastructure sector is seen as having upward potential due to attractive dividend yields and increased insurance fund allocations [2] Group 3: Industry Focus - CITIC Construction Investment is optimistic about the traditional Chinese medicine industry, expecting demand to recover by year-end and improvements in fundamentals and valuations [3] - The blood products sector is highlighted for its focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" for plasma station construction and industry consolidation [3] - The vaccine industry is monitored for sales improvements of key products and progress in innovative pipelines, with policies and international expansion expected to drive further development [3] - The pharmaceutical retail sector is undergoing steady transformation, with attention on multi-faceted catalysts for growth [3] - The pharmaceutical distribution sector shows stable revenue growth, with a focus on receivables and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations yesterday, with both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index closing in the green. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.73 trillion, a decrease of 200.2 billion compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - The sectors that saw the highest gains included precious metals, military industry, and aquaculture, while sectors such as Hainan, gas, and film and television box office experienced declines. By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.25% [1]. Investment Recommendations Huatai Securities - Huatai Securities continues to recommend cyclical aviation, trading in oil transportation, and allocation in highways. The firm notes that external uncertainties have settled, leading to a recovery in industrial production and export sentiment, along with a mild rebound in consumer data. Specifically, they expect: 1. Aviation: October ticket prices continue to improve, supported by low supply growth and a low base, indicating a sustained recovery in industry profitability. 2. Oil Transportation: Multiple favorable factors, including OPEC+/U.S. production increases and low oil prices, are expected to maintain high activity levels in the oil transportation sector. 3. Highways: With insurance funds beginning year-end allocations, the highway sector is anticipated to have upward potential due to attractive dividend yields [2]. CITIC Securities - CITIC Securities is optimistic about the traditional Chinese medicine industry, anticipating a recovery in demand by year-end and subsequent improvements in fundamentals and valuations. They highlight: - The easing of short-term base pressure and accelerated channel inventory clearance. - The potential for innovative areas to create a second growth curve, with significant brand extension opportunities for Chinese medicine consumer goods. - Attention to the blood products sector regarding the "14th Five-Year Plan" for plasma stations and industry consolidation, as well as the vaccine sector's product sales and innovation pipeline [3]. Tianfeng Securities - Tianfeng Securities suggests focusing on the recovery opportunities in the liquor sector, noting a "volume increase, price drop" trend during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival. Key points include: - Traditional e-commerce platforms saw major liquor prices fall below critical levels due to inventory pressures, while emerging channels like instant retail and Douyin experienced growth. - Liquor companies are actively combating counterfeiting and stabilizing prices through authorized and unauthorized listings. - The industry is shifting from price wars to value reconstruction, emphasizing high-quality products and refined channel operations. The current dividend returns from leading liquor companies are attractive, and consumer spending is expected to gradually recover [4].

Group 1: Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is expected to continue its recovery trend in ticket prices due to low supply growth, industry self-regulation, and a low base effect [1] - The overall revenue levels in the aviation sector are anticipated to improve [1] Group 2: Oil Transportation Sector - The oil transportation sector is projected to maintain high prosperity driven by multiple factors including OPEC+/U.S. production increases, cross-regional price arbitrage, low oil prices boosting inventory replenishment, and geopolitical disturbances [1] Group 3: Highway Sector - The highway sector is expected to have upward potential as insurance funds begin year-end allocations, and the market's risk appetite experiences fluctuations [1] - The attractive dividend yields of AH highway stocks contribute to the sector's appeal [1] Group 4: Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a "volume increase, price drop" phenomenon, with traditional e-commerce platforms seeing prices fall below critical levels due to dealer inventory pressures and platform subsidies [2] - Emerging channels like instant retail and Douyin are showing growth, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards "buy now, drink now" [2] - Major liquor companies are initiating anti-counterfeiting actions to stabilize prices and balance online and offline channel interests [2] Group 5: Traditional Chinese Medicine Sector - The traditional Chinese medicine industry is expected to see demand recovery by year-end, with inventory levels clearing up [3] - There are opportunities for fundamental and valuation improvements in the sector [3] - The innovation sector is seen as a potential second growth curve for traditional Chinese medicine companies [3] Group 6: Blood Products and Vaccine Industries - The blood products sector is focused on the "14th Five-Year" plan for plasma station construction and industry consolidation [3] - The vaccine industry is monitoring sales improvements of key products and progress in innovative pipelines, with policies and international expansion expected to drive further development [3]

Group 1: Aviation and Transportation - The aviation sector is expected to continue its recovery due to improved ticket prices in October, low supply growth, and a low base effect [1] - The oil transportation sector is anticipated to maintain high prosperity driven by multiple factors including OPEC+ production increases, cross-regional price arbitrage, and geopolitical events [1] - The highway sector shows potential for upward movement as insurance funds begin year-end allocations, and highway stocks offer attractive dividend yields [1] Group 2: Alcohol Industry - The white liquor industry is experiencing a "volume increase and price drop" phenomenon, with traditional platforms seeing prices fall below key thresholds due to inventory pressures [2] - Emerging retail channels are growing, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards immediate consumption [2] - The industry is advised to transition from price wars to value reconstruction, focusing on high-quality products and refined channel operations [2] Group 3: Traditional Chinese Medicine and Pharmaceuticals - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to see demand recovery by year-end, with inventory pressures easing [3] - The blood products industry is focusing on the "14th Five-Year" plan for plasma stations and industry consolidation, with increased demand for specific products [3] - The vaccine sector is monitoring sales improvements and innovation pipeline developments, with policies and international expansion likely to drive growth [3]

Group 1 - The short-term pressure on the traditional Chinese medicine industry is expected to ease, with channel inventory clearing accelerating, leading to a positive outlook for year-end demand recovery and subsequent fundamental and valuation improvement opportunities [1] - The innovative sector is expected to help build a second growth curve, with significant brand extension potential for traditional Chinese medicine consumer companies [1] - In the blood products industry, attention is focused on the "14th Five-Year Plan" for plasma station construction and industry merger and acquisition progress, with an optimistic view on the demand for immunoglobulin and factor products, as well as new product development [1] Group 2 - In the vaccine industry, the focus is on the sales improvement of key products and the progress of the innovation pipeline, with policy implementation and international expansion expected to further drive corporate development [1] - The transformation and reform in the pharmaceutical retail industry is steadily advancing, with attention on subsequent multi-faceted catalysts [1] - The pharmaceutical distribution industry shows stable revenue growth, with a focus on receivables and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.07% to 4000.14 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.39%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.96 trillion RMB, with over 3500 stocks declining. The household appliances, comprehensive, and textile and apparel sectors led the gains, while the electric equipment, machinery, and computer sectors lagged behind [2][8] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.85% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 0.16%. In overseas markets, the Dow Jones rose by 0.68%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.06%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.26% [2][8] Important News - The Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investor Conference opened on November 12, 2025, focusing on "Value Leadership and Open Empowerment - New Opportunities for International Capital Investment and M&A." The event attracted over 400 representatives from more than 100 well-known investment institutions across Europe, America, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East. Discussions centered on new opportunities for investment and M&A in China, driven by macroeconomic stability and policy optimization [3][9] Blood Products Sector - The blood products sector has faced profit pressure, with a year-to-date average stock price decline of 8.35%. The sector's revenue growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was 0.30% year-on-year, with a Q3 growth of 4.11%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders saw a significant decline of 23.14% year-on-year, with Q3 showing a decrease of 30.89% [10][13] - The sales gross margin and net profit margin for Q3 2025 were 40.42% (down 7.26 percentage points year-on-year) and 18.74% (down 10.17 percentage points year-on-year), respectively. The sector's valuation as of November 10, 2025, had a price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of 30.07, indicating a high percentile ranking since 2020 [13][14] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector showed stable demand in the first three quarters of 2025, with overall revenue reaching 636.19 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.12%, and a net profit of 62.62 billion RMB, up 40.37% year-on-year. Q3 alone saw revenue of 235.43 billion RMB, a 20.42% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.34 billion RMB, up 58.20% year-on-year [14][15] - The battery segment achieved revenue of 417.27 billion RMB in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 11.92%. In Q3, revenue reached 154.04 billion RMB, reflecting a 16.63% increase year-on-year [16][15] Traditional Chinese Medicine Sector - The traditional Chinese medicine sector faced ongoing performance pressure in Q3 2025, with an overall revenue decline of 1.57% year-on-year and a net profit decrease of 5.25% year-on-year. The sector's sales gross margin was 40.40%, with a net profit margin of 9.21% [20][23] - Among 69 listed companies in the sector, 49 saw stock price increases year-to-date, with notable performers including Wanbangde and Tianmu Pharmaceutical, which both exceeded 100% growth [23][24]