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贵州茅台(600519):2025年半年报点评:增速降档适配需求,茅台酒韧性凸显
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-14 13:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its brand strength and channel resilience [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.403 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.16% and 8.89% respectively [1]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the recovery of state-owned enterprises' shipments and the rapid increase in the sales of "kilogram Maotai" products [2]. - The gross margin for Maotai liquor was 93.8% in the first half of 2025, slightly down by 0.28 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a shift in product mix [2]. - The sales of series liquor experienced a decline in the second quarter, impacted by policy factors and high base effects from the previous year [2]. - Direct sales channels showed significant growth, with a revenue increase of 16.52% year-on-year in the second quarter, driven by the promotion of kilogram Maotai [3]. - The overall gross margin decreased to 90.63% in the second quarter, with increased marketing expenses affecting profitability [4]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 94.761 billion yuan, 103.010 billion yuan, and 111.638 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 9.9%, 8.7%, and 8.4% [6]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 19, 17, and 16 respectively [6]. - The total revenue is expected to reach 190.881 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 9.6% [10].