智通財經APP獲悉，華創證券發佈研報稱，元旦假期白酒需求較弱，多地反饋同比下降20%+，但環比 11、12月略有改善。供給端，酒企目標降低，渠道有望進一步去庫紓壓。需求端，目前渠道對春節需求 預期謹慎，預計整體下滑雙位數、但降幅較元旦會收窄。價格端，對於高端酒，考慮i茅臺持續出貨疊 加傳統渠道即將到貨，預計飛天批價邊際持續承壓。展望2026年全年，酒企從被動應對進入主動調整， 機會在於茅臺批價回落並企穩之後，預期築底企穩。 華創證券主要觀點如下： 元旦需求弱復甦，批價持續低迷，但大衆消費韌性較強 元旦需求較弱，多地反饋同比下降20%+，但環比11、12月略有改善。一方面元旦距離春節約一個半月 相對較遠，行業仍處淡季，另一方面消費者出行較多，宴席表現一般。量價維度看，元旦期間行業出貨 量預計同降10%+，商務宴請、年會團購等需求明顯減少，江蘇、安徽等地反饋外部政策的疤痕效應仍 在；行業價盤承壓，高端酒批價同降10%+，次高端酒批價普遍同降5-10%。局部亮點是大衆消費韌性 較強，四川、安徽等地反饋大衆宴席及聚飲表現較好，對應80-200元價格帶週轉不錯。 春節的三個研判：渠道去庫，下滑收窄，供需矛盾有望減輕 供 ...

2026年刚开始，贵州茅台就甩出重磅操作，宣布从2026年1月1日起，53度500ml飞天贵州茅台酒将 正式在"i茅台"APP上架销售，每人每日限购12瓶（两箱）。开抢后 ，连续3天上线即"秒空"。 1月3日晚，"i茅台"发布消息称，1月1日到3日，平台有超10万名用户买到心仪的产品，并宣布调整购 买政策，将每人每日限购12瓶改为6瓶，继续扩大覆盖面。1月4日，"i茅台"上1499元的飞天茅台继 续"秒空"。 编辑丨瑜见 1月5日，白酒板块午后再度拉升，截至发稿，贵州茅台涨近4%报1430.99元；山西汾酒涨超3%，五 粮液、古井贡酒、酒鬼酒涨超2%，舍得酒业、泸州老窖等跟涨。 | 代码 名称 | 涨幅 | 总金额 | 总市值 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600519 贵州茅台 | +3.91% | 86.72 乙 | 17920 乙 1430.99 | | | 600809 山西分省 | +3.37% | 10.54Z | 2165 乙 177.49 | | | 000596 古井贡酒 | +2.16% | 3.32 Z | 716.1 乙 | 135. ...

国信证券首席经济学家荀玉根研报指出，26年牛市相比25年，不变：政策继续宽松。起于24年924的牛 市类似99年519，通缩不止、政策宽松环境不变；牛市周期未完。借鉴历史上牛熊周期规律，这轮牛市 的时空未到，市场情绪还未极致。变化：基本面修复将由点到面扩散，配合居民资金入市，牛市走向第 二阶段后半场和第三阶段；科技行情望从算力基建向应用扩散，白酒消费、地产等老登资产有重估机 会。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) [3][6] Core Views - The company reported a decline in Q3 performance, with revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 at 231.27 billion yuan and 107.62 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 4.84% and 7.17% [3][4] - The report anticipates continued pressure in Q4, but notes that the decline in performance was better than market expectations [4] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the liquor industry as it enters a destocking phase, with stable management and organizational structure [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 231.27 billion yuan and a net profit of 107.62 billion yuan, with Q3 figures showing a revenue of 66.74 billion yuan and a net profit of 30.99 billion yuan, both down year-on-year by 9.80% and 13.07% respectively [4][5] - The sales net profit margin and gross profit margin for the first three quarters were 46.67% and 87.11%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous year [5] - Cash flow from operations in Q3 was 37.58 billion yuan, down 11.16% year-on-year, with a slight increase in contract liabilities [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation Analysis - The report forecasts net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 to be 123.51 billion yuan, 124.91 billion yuan, and 137.99 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 8.39 yuan, 8.49 yuan, and 9.37 yuan [6][8] - The projected P/E ratios for the same period are 16 times, 15.9 times, and 14.4 times, indicating a favorable valuation compared to current market conditions [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing significant challenges in revenue and profit due to external factors, including a decline in sales and increased operational costs [3][9] - The company is focusing on channel reform and product development to stabilize its market position and enhance profitability [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 2,231 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 37.46%. However, a decline is expected in 2024 with a revenue of 2,203 million yuan, and further drops in 2025 to 1,752 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 20.47% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 339.85 million yuan in 2023, with a significant increase of 105.53% year-on-year, but is expected to decline to 285.80 million yuan in 2024 and further to 189.88 million yuan in 2025, indicating a drop of 33.56% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decrease from 0.72 yuan in 2023 to 0.40 yuan in 2025 [1] Operational Insights - In Q3 2025, the company's gross profit margin was 47.6%, down 12.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in revenue volume and fixed costs impacting margins [3] - The company reported a significant drop in sales cash collection in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 50.6%, attributed to a high repayment of receivables in the previous year [3] - The company is implementing a strategy to enhance its product matrix across various price segments and is focusing on core products to capture market share [9] Market Strategy - The company is adjusting its sales strategy in both domestic and foreign markets, emphasizing core products and innovative marketing approaches to drive growth [9] - The company aims to strengthen its operational efficiency by establishing dedicated sales platforms and enhancing its distribution network [9]

Investment Highlights - Company reported 2025 mid-year results with revenue of 3.16 billion and net profit of 1.13 billion, reflecting year-on-year declines of 16.89% and 18.19% respectively [1] - Gross margin for H1 2025 was 73.62%, slightly up by 0.18 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin was 35.76%, down by 0.57 percentage points [1] - Sales revenue for H1 2025 was 3.49 billion, a decrease of 10.00% year-on-year, with cash flow from operations dropping by 45.71% to 317 million [1][2] Market Conditions - Short-term market faces pressures from channel inventory digestion and weak demand, leading to sales challenges in H1 2025 [2] - The decline in ordinary liquor sales was more significant than that of mid-to-high-end liquor, resulting in a slight improvement in product mix [2] - Company’s core product series showed manageable declines, with a focus on optimizing marketing activities and enhancing channel control [3] Future Outlook - The worst performance period is expected to be Q2 2025, with gradual improvement anticipated in the second half of the year as policy impacts lessen [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6.73 billion, 7.02 billion, and 7.68 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.41%, 4.36%, and 9.42% [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.32 billion, 2.46 billion, and 2.79 billion, with corresponding EPS of 2.90, 3.08, and 3.49 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][14]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenues of 3.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, down 18.19% year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross margin slightly improved to 73.62%, while the net profit margin was 35.76%, reflecting a minor year-on-year increase in gross margin but a slight decrease in net profit margin [3][4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product strategy, particularly emphasizing its core products and improving its market presence, with expectations of gradual sales recovery in the latter half of the year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 45.01 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 36 billion yuan and a total share capital of 800 million shares [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.16 billion yuan, a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.09 billion yuan, all showing significant declines compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The sales collection for the first half of 2025 was 3.49 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year, with a net cash flow from operations of 317 million yuan, a decrease of 45.71% [3][4]. Market Conditions - The company faced challenges in sales due to inventory digestion and weak demand, particularly in the first half of 2025, but there are signs of improvement in sales performance as of July and August [4][6]. - The company is adjusting its marketing strategies and focusing on key channels to enhance sales performance, especially in preparation for the upcoming peak season [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in performance in the second half of 2025, with projections for revenue growth in subsequent years, despite the challenges faced in the first half [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9][13]. Core Views - The company reported its 2025 mid-year results, showing a revenue of 6.95 billion yuan, a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.229 billion yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.224 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.84%, 9.46%, and 9.08% respectively [3]. - The company’s gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 73.41%, with a net profit margin of 32.06%, both showing slight year-on-year declines [3]. - The report suggests that the second quarter of 2025 is likely to be the worst quarter for the company, with expectations of improvement in the second half of the year as policy impacts lessen and the company benefits from a low base effect [7]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company’s sales revenue was 6.7 billion yuan, an increase of 7.63% year-on-year, while the net cash from operating activities was 1.075 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.75% year-on-year [3]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with figures of 1.852 billion yuan and 585 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 29.69% and 37.06% [4]. - The company’s revenue from various product categories in the first half of 2025 showed mixed results, with the Special A+ category generating 4.311 billion yuan, down 7.37% year-on-year [5]. Regional Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company generated 6.254 billion yuan from domestic sales and 628 million yuan from external sales, with domestic sales declining by 6.07% year-on-year while external sales increased by 4.78% [5]. - The report highlights that the company’s strategy focuses on core markets surrounding Jiangsu, with particular emphasis on enhancing product competitiveness in regions like Zhejiang, where there are no strong local brands [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 10.688 billion yuan, 11.276 billion yuan, and 12.543 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -7.42%, 5.50%, and 11.23% [7]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 3.010 billion yuan, 3.209 billion yuan, and 3.676 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -11.79%, 6.63%, and 14.55% [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company has launched a new strategic product "Dazhen·Zhenjiu" priced at 888 RMB, targeting the market for high-quality liquor priced around 2000 RMB, responding to rational consumption trends [1] Group 1: Product Launch and Market Strategy - The new product features a five-year base liquor and is complemented by over 20 years of aged liquor for flavoring, emphasizing its rarity and quality [1] - The product's packaging design is minimalist, enhancing its high-end recognition, and aims to penetrate market demand through its quality-price ratio [1] - The company aims to build a strong trust chain among manufacturers, merchants, and consumers, focusing on creating a market-impacting phenomenon with this product [1] Group 2: Innovative Business Model - The "Wanshang Alliance" model ensures transparent pricing at the terminal level, with strict channel control by the manufacturer to secure high channel profits [2] - The company employs a four-tier supervision mechanism involving sales personnel, alliance merchants, auditors, and headquarters, which has already led to the expulsion of over 20 non-compliant merchants [2] - The company anticipates reaching 5,000 to 8,000 signed merchants by 2026, with current signed merchants at 2,116, and sees potential for further client conversion from competitors [2] Group 3: Marketing and Sales Outlook - The company plans to adjust its marketing strategy in 2025, focusing on inventory clearance, with stable channel order in key provinces like Guizhou, Henan, Hunan, and Guangdong [3] - The company expects sales volume recovery in the future as the market stabilizes, particularly for its existing products [3] - The company has revised its non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.27 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting growth potential driven by the new product [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its brand strength and channel resilience [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.403 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.16% and 8.89% respectively [1]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the recovery of state-owned enterprises' shipments and the rapid increase in the sales of "kilogram Maotai" products [2]. - The gross margin for Maotai liquor was 93.8% in the first half of 2025, slightly down by 0.28 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a shift in product mix [2]. - The sales of series liquor experienced a decline in the second quarter, impacted by policy factors and high base effects from the previous year [2]. - Direct sales channels showed significant growth, with a revenue increase of 16.52% year-on-year in the second quarter, driven by the promotion of kilogram Maotai [3]. - The overall gross margin decreased to 90.63% in the second quarter, with increased marketing expenses affecting profitability [4]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 94.761 billion yuan, 103.010 billion yuan, and 111.638 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 9.9%, 8.7%, and 8.4% [6]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 19, 17, and 16 respectively [6]. - The total revenue is expected to reach 190.881 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 9.6% [10].