海容冷链 20250822 摘要 海容冷链 2025 年第二季度冷冻内销收入同比下降 40%，但外销收入同 比增长 52%，主要受益于产品结构优化，冷冻外销业务毛利率较高，推 动整体毛利率提升。 国内冷藏业务受益于与饮料、水饮料等领域客户合作深化，供货份额提 升，2025 年第二季度内销收入同比增长 36%，未来三到五年预计保持 增长。 商超柜业务内销收入同比增长近 50%，外销收入同比增长 61%，主要 得益于与原有连锁便利店客户深化合作及拓展新的应用场景。 智能柜业务内销收入同比增长 240%，主要由于下游品牌商客户加大投 放力度，但海外市场受限于 5G 建设和移动支付等因素，发展受限，正 在开发适应当地网络和支付方式的产品。 北美市场受关税政策影响，2025 年上半年销售额下降 29%，预计下半 年延续此趋势，未来印尼工厂投产后有望缓解关税影响。 国内冷冻市场预计 2025 年下半年不会出现明显拐点，但由于过去两年 大幅下降，继续大幅下降的可能性不大，未来需求有望逐渐回升。 公司维持全年收入增长 7%-16%的预期，目前已达 13%左右，分红预 期保持 50%不变，现金流状况良好，预计全年趋势与上半年相 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth in Q1, but the change in product structure has put pressure on the gross margin [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.83 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 353.66 million yuan, down 14.39% year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to see a recovery in revenue growth from 2025 onwards, with projected revenues of 3.19 billion yuan in 2025, 3.63 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.99 billion yuan in 2027 [3][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 27.8%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for different product lines: 35.3% for frozen display cabinets, 14% for refrigerated display cabinets, 21.7% for supermarket display cabinets, and 22.1% for smart vending machines [8] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 12.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.02 yuan in 2025, 1.18 yuan in 2026, and 1.35 yuan in 2027 [3][10] Revenue and Growth Projections - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow at a rate of 12.63% in 2025, 14.00% in 2026, and 9.77% in 2027 [3][10] - The revenue from frozen display cabinets is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, 15% in 2026, and 10% in 2027, while refrigerated display cabinets are expected to see growth rates of 30%, 15%, and 10% respectively during the same period [9][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company holds a leading market share and brand influence in the frozen display cabinet sector, with a comprehensive coverage of mainstream beverage brands in the domestic market [8] - The growth in refrigerated display cabinets is attributed to North American customers placing orders in anticipation of tariff changes [8]