| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/26 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/08/19 | 3240 | 3270 | 3330 | 3250 | 3320 | 3320 | | 2025/08/20 | 3240 | 3270 | 3330 | 3250 | 3290 | 3310 | | 2025/08/21 | 3240 | 3320 | 3330 | 3250 | 3290 | 3310 | | 2025/08/22 | 3220 | 3270 | 3330 | 3250 | 3290 | 3310 | | 2025/08/25 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | 上海冷卷 ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/08/18 | 3260 | 3300 | 3350 | 3250 | 3340 | 3350 | | 2025/08/19 | 3240 | 3270 | 3330 | 3250 | 3320 | 3320 | | 2025/08/20 | 3240 | 3270 | 3330 | 3250 | 3290 | 3310 | | 2025/08/21 | 3240 | 3320 | 3330 | 3250 | 3290 | 3310 | | 2025/08/22 | 3220 | 3270 | 3330 | 3250 | 3290 | 3310 | | 变化 | -20 | -50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | ...

企业强则国家强，企业兴则国家兴。国有企业是中国特色社会主义经济的"顶梁柱"，随着我国经济结构 不断调整优化，如何推动国资国企高质量发展，充分发挥国民经济"领头羊"作用？广西壮族自治区出台 了一系列政策措施，做好"原字号""老字号""新字号""外字号"四篇强产业文章，着力培育经济增长新动 力、做优做强传统产业、加快提升国际化经营水平，国资国企不断"破圈"成长。 今年是国有企业改革深化提升行动的收官之年，改革如何走深走实？科技创新持续加力，产业发展向新 求质，国企改革扎实推进……诸多新成效传递着地方国资国企加快高质量发展的积极信号。 为充分发挥国有企业引领高质量发展的主力军作用，近年来，广西壮族自治区国资委出台政策措施鼓励 国有企业培育壮大"新字号"、转型升级"老字号"、科技赋能"原字号"、加快发展"外字号"，产业发展焕 发勃勃生机。数据显示，2025年上半年，广西国资委监管企业利润总额、战略性新兴产业投资、主业投 资占比同比分别增长13.56%、20.66%、2.55%。 培育壮大"新字号" 在今年的上海车展上，柳州五菱汽车工业有限公司成为众人瞩目的焦点。这是五菱工业公司第三次亮相 全球顶级车展。他们自主研发的 ...

企业强则国家强，企业兴则国家兴。国有企业是中国特色社会主义经济的"顶梁柱"，随着我国经济结构 不断调整优化，如何推动国资国企高质量发展，充分发挥国民经济"领头羊"作用？广西壮族自治区出台 了一系列政策措施，做好"原字号""老字号""新字号""外字号"四篇强产业文章，着力培育经济增长新动 力、做优做强传统产业、加快提升国际化经营水平，国资国企不断"破圈"成长。 今年是国有企业改革深化提升行动的收官之年，改革如何走深走实？科技创新持续加力，产业发展向新 求质，国企改革扎实推进……诸多新成效传递着地方国资国企加快高质量发展的积极信号。 为充分发挥国有企业引领高质量发展的主力军作用，近年来，广西壮族自治区国资委出台政策措施鼓励 国有企业培育壮大"新字号"、转型升级"老字号"、科技赋能"原字号"、加快发展"外字号"，产业发展焕 发勃勃生机。数据显示，2025年上半年，广西国资委监管企业利润总额、战略性新兴产业投资、主业投 资占比同比分别增长13.56%、20.66%、2.55%。 培育壮大"新字号" 在今年的上海车展上，柳州五菱汽车工业有限公司成为众人瞩目的焦点。这是五菱工业公司第三次亮相 全球顶级车展。他们自主研发的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported significant performance recovery with a focus on optimizing product structure. In H1 2025, revenue was 63.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.748 billion yuan, an increase of 31.31% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing a decline in steel sales but has seen a notable recovery in gross margin, which reached 10.28% in H1 2025, up 2.91 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the total steel sales volume was 11.1 million tons, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year. Major product categories saw declines, except for coated steel [2]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 10.28%, with long products, flat products, and pipes showing respective margins of 5.45%, 13.65%, and 10.89%, all increasing year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is releasing high-end production capacity, with projects like the cold-rolled silicon steel line and seamless steel pipe production line progressing steadily. The first phase of the non-oriented silicon steel is expected to be operational by August 2025 [3]. - The product structure is being optimized, with key product sales accounting for 68.5% of total sales, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year. The company has developed 75 new products, achieving six domestic firsts or import substitutions [3]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company is implementing cost reduction measures across its operations, with 32% of its economic and technical indicators entering the advanced category. Adjustments in structure have led to a reduction in procurement costs by approximately 250 million yuan [4]. - The self-generated electricity reached 4.922 billion kWh in the reporting period, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, contributing to operational efficiency [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.465 billion yuan, 3.993 billion yuan, and 4.434 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11x, 10x, and 9x [5][9].

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/20 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/08/13 | 3310 | 3340 | 3430 | 3280 | 3420 | 3400 | | 2025/08/14 | 3270 | 3300 | 3370 | 3260 | 3350 | 3370 | | 2025/08/15 | 3270 | 3300 | 3360 | 3260 | 3350 | 3370 | | 2025/08/18 | 3260 | 3300 | 3350 | 3250 | 3340 | 3350 | | 2025/08/19 | 3240 | 3270 | 3330 | 3250 | 3320 | 3320 | | 变化 | -20 | -30 | -20 | 0 | -20 | -30 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing price declines, with specific products showing varying levels of demand and inventory changes, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic in the industry [1][5]. Supply - In the first seven months, iron element production increased by 18 million tons, a growth rate of 3.1%. In August, production rebounded compared to July, primarily due to a significant increase in scrap steel consumption [2]. - The total production of the five major steel products rose by 24,000 tons to 8.716 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 7,000 tons to 2.205 million tons and hot-rolled coil production increasing by 7,000 tons to 3.156 million tons [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for the five major steel products remained flat year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production fell by 1.3%. Domestic demand decreased year-on-year, but external demand increased significantly, leading to an overall increase in steel demand [3]. - The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20,000 tons to 1.9 million tons, while hot-rolled coil demand increased by 8,000 tons to 3.15 million tons [3]. Inventory - There was a significant increase in inventory this week, primarily driven by traders, with the total inventory of the five major steel products rising by 406,000 tons to 14.16 million tons [4]. - Rebar inventory increased by 305,000 tons to 5.872 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory rose by 8,400 tons to 3.575 million tons [4]. Price Trends - Hot-rolled coil prices have broken support levels, and black metal prices are weakening again. The data for rebar shows a noticeable decline in August demand, leading to rising inventory levels [5]. - The price difference between rebar and hot-rolled coil has widened to around 290, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Price and Profit - The report shows the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from August 12 to August 18, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, etc. for hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, and the price changes during this period [1] Basis and Spread No information provided Output and Inventory No information provided

Report Title - Weekly Report on Rebar & Hot-Rolled Coil [1] Report Date - August 17, 2025 [2] Analyst Information - Senior Analyst: Li Yafei [2] - Investment Consultation Number: Z0021184 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment has eased, and steel prices are oscillating [3] Logic Summary Market Sentiment - The coking coal exchange has imposed position limits again, and the Economic Daily has published an article stating that anti-involution will not drive up general prices, leading to a缓和 in market sentiment [5] Macroeconomic Factors - **Overseas**: US PPI has soared by 3.3% year-on-year, with the month-on-month increase reaching a two-year high, indicating increased producer pressure. The expectation of an unexpected interest rate cut in September has been revised [5][9] - **Domestic**: The anti-involution trading has cooled off. The Politburo meeting on July 30 removed the word "low-price" from "low-price disorderly competition" compared to the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting on July 1. The statement "promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity" has been changed to "promote capacity management in key industries", emphasizing the optimization of market competition order and the regulation of corporate disorderly competition in accordance with laws and regulations [5][8] Black Industry Chain - Steel demand remains stable during the off-season, with decent profits and low inventories. The daily consumption of scrap steel has rebounded, while the decline in hot metal production is slow, resulting in an ineffective negative feedback transmission [5][11] Section Summaries Rebar Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3320 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3188 (-25) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 132 (+5) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -81 (-8) yuan/ton [14] - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Second-hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains low. Additionally, demand is in the off-season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally [17][20][21] - **Inventory and Production**: High profits have stimulated steel mills to resume production, leading to an accumulation of steel inventories. The production of long and short process rebar and their corresponding inventories are also presented [23][24] - **Production Profit**: The expected revision of anti-involution policies has led to a reduction in steel mill profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 226 (-63) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 207 (-42) yuan/ton. The valley electricity profit of East China rebar was 126 (-54) yuan/ton [29][33] Hot-Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai hot-rolled coil spot price was 3460 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3439 (+11) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 21 (-1) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was 7 (+8) yuan/ton [35] - **Demand**: Demand has weakened month-on-month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off-season. The internal and external price spread has converged, closing the export window [36][39][40] - **Inventory and Production**: Speculative demand has declined, leading to a faster accumulation of hot-rolled coil inventories. Production has also decreased [42][44] - **Production Profit**: Similar to rebar, the expected revision of anti-involution policies has led to a reduction in steel mill profits. Last week, the hot-rolled coil spot profit was 200 (-31) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 308 (-6) yuan/ton [46][48] Variety Spread Structure - Opportunities for the expansion of the cold-hot spread and the medium plate - hot-rolled coil spread are worth noting [49] Variety Regional Difference - The regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil are presented [58][59][60] Cold Rolled Coil and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium plate are provided [62][63]

| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/08/07 | 3290 | 3350 | 3420 | 3320 | 3380 | 3420 | | 2025/08/08 | 3290 | 3330 | 3420 | 3320 | 3380 | 3390 | | 2025/08/11 | 3340 | 3380 | 3420 | 3330 | 3360 | 3430 | | 2025/08/12 | 3340 | 3390 | 3430 | 3340 | 3420 | 3440 | | 2025/08/13 | 3310 | 3340 | 3430 | 3280 | 3420 | 3400 | | 变化 | -30 | -50 | 0 | -60 | 0 | -40 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津 ...