1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In terms of supply and demand, steel production continued to rise this week. Rebar production was similar to the same period last year, while hot-rolled coil production was at a low level. Construction steel demand recovered at a similar pace to last year, hot-rolled coil demand was weak, and cold-rolled coil and medium-thick plate demand were at the highest levels for the same period, showing strong demand resilience. Steel inventories decreased slightly and entered the destocking phase, but rebar inventories in East China were high, and the hot-rolled coil warehouse receipt volume was at the highest level for the same period. The overall fundamental contradictions in the steel market were not obvious, and the driving force was not strong. Pig iron production recovered significantly, supporting raw material demand. Geopolitical disturbances continued, and the problem of available iron ore resources remained unresolved, providing some support at the cost end [2]. - From the perspective of driving factors, the basis of rebar is bullish, while that of hot-rolled coil is bearish. Although steel mill profits are not high, they are generally acceptable, and there is an expectation of continued resumption of production, so the supply side will continue to increase. Real estate and infrastructure investment data are weak, while the demand for cold-rolled and medium-thick plates is strong, and the differentiation continues. The destocking slope driven by the overall demand recovery speed of steel in the later stage is crucial. At the same time, the raw material side is greatly affected by non-supply and demand disturbances, providing support. Currently, the black market still lacks strong driving forces, and the trading logic may shift to actual supply and demand in the later stage. It is advisable to sell spot steel at high prices or hedge at an appropriate time [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Monthly Data - In December 2025, the monthly production of pig iron was 60720,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative production was 137,700,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. The monthly production of crude steel was 68180,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative production was 160,340,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. The monthly production of steel was 115,310,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative production was 221,190,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Steel imports were 370,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 33.5%; the cumulative imports were 830,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.7%. Steel exports were 7840,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; the cumulative exports were 15,590,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% [4]. Five Major Steel Products Weekly Data - As of March 20, 2026, the weekly production of rebar was 2,033,300 tons, an increase of 80,300 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7%; consumption was 2,080,900 tons, an increase of 312,800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10%; inventory was 8,894,100 tons, a decrease of 47,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%. The weekly production of wire rod was 805,800 tons, an increase of 30,100 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year change of 0%; consumption was 850,000 tons, an increase of 155,700 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2%; inventory was 1,928,600 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The weekly production of hot-rolled coil was 3,002,100 tons, an increase of 49,500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5%; consumption was 3,105,100 tons, an increase of 151,500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5%; inventory was 4,612,900 tons, a decrease of 103,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%. The weekly production of cold-rolled coil was 888,500 tons, an increase of 5,800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.22%; consumption was 946,100 tons, an increase of 34,100 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.81%; inventory was 1,830,800 tons, a decrease of 57,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.81%. The weekly production of medium-thick plate was 1,668,500 tons, an increase of 22,800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.32%; consumption was 1,706,000 tons, an increase of 49,900 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.24%; inventory was 2,195,900 tons, a decrease of 37,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.75%. The total weekly production of the five major steel products was 8,398,200 tons, an increase of 188,500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.86%; total consumption was 8,680,000 tons, an increase of 700,000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3.24%; total inventory was 19,460,000 tons, a decrease of 286,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.84% [5]. Steel Production Profit - On March 19, 2026, the profit of rebar from blast furnaces in East China was 110, a decrease of 18; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using off-peak electricity was 31, a decrease of 2; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using normal electricity was -90, a decrease of 2; the profit of hot-rolled coil from blast furnaces was 62, a decrease of 8. In North China, the profit of rebar from blast furnaces was 80, a decrease of 10; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using off-peak electricity was 0, with no change; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using normal electricity was -84, with no change; the profit of hot-rolled coil from blast furnaces was -34, an increase of 2. In Central China, the profit of rebar from blast furnaces was 175, with no change; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using off-peak electricity was -10, with no change; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using normal electricity was -142, with no change; the profit of hot-rolled coil from blast furnaces was 85, with no change [20]. Steel Demand - Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities compared with the same period last year was 19%, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 1.4% [27]. - In 2025, China's steel exports to Iran were only 270,000 tons, which can be ignored, but exports to the seven Gulf countries were about 14,000,000 tons, accounting for about 11.7% of China's total steel exports. Due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, China's steel export orders and shipments to this region have been affected. Therefore, the war has a negative impact on China's steel exports in the short term, but if the war continues, the local steel shortage may need to be filled by China, which will form an indirect benefit. From January to February this year, steel exports decreased by 8% year-on-year [35]. Steel Inventory and Basis - The rebar basis rebounded slightly this week and was still slightly higher year-on-year. Currently, rebar production and apparent demand are similar to the same period last year, and there are price increases for certain specifications in some areas. This week, rebar entered the destocking phase, but the inventory in Hangzhou was still at the highest level for the same period, facing certain destocking pressure, and the room for the basis to strengthen was limited [49]. - The hot-rolled coil basis fluctuated at a low level this week. The hot-rolled coil inventory was high, and the warehouse receipts were at a high level for the same period, suppressing the basis. However, the basis has now fallen to a low level for the same period, and the room for further weakening is limited [53]. - The 5 - 10 month spread of rebar fluctuated little this week. During the destocking phase, the month spread tends to weaken. At the same time, the inventory level in Hangzhou is high, and the month spread may run weakly in the later stage [59]. - The 5 - 10 month spread of hot-rolled coil strengthened slightly, and the room for further strengthening is limited under the pressure of warehouse receipts and destocking [61].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the steel futures market showed a slight decline, and steel procurement was weak. This week, the output of the five major steel products continued to increase, and the molten iron output rose due to the recovery of profit levels. The total steel inventory started to accumulate, but hot-rolled coils were still being destocked, with inventory shifting from factory warehouses to social warehouses, and the overall rebar inventory accumulating. Seasonal factors led to a further weakening of the apparent demand for construction steel, and the funds available to downstream construction sites declined. The demand for hot-rolled coils was slightly digested, but steel exports declined in January due to export license issues. On the raw material side, coal mine inventories decreased, and prices soared recently due to market news, driving up steel prices. The structural shortage of PB fines has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for restocking, providing cost support. The continuous resumption of molten iron production also limited the further rise of steel prices. Therefore, steel prices remained volatile. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of macro news on the futures market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was priced at 3,290 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3,180 yuan (+20 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coils at 3,320 yuan (+20 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coils at 3,220 yuan (+10 yuan) [4] Market Judgments Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: As the futures market corrected, long positions could take profits [6] - Arbitrage: It was recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold short positions on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - Options: It was recommended to wait and see [8] Important Information - As of January 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.53%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.37 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non-housing construction projects was 60.59%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.41 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 54.41%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The capital availability rate ended a two-week increase and started to decline, mainly due to new projects occupying some funds and the decline in payment collection for existing projects [9] - In December 2025, the average monthly working hours of major construction machinery products in China were 76.5 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.19%. The monthly startup rate was 51.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 4.72 percentage points. For excavators, the average monthly working hours were 69.3 hours, and the monthly startup rate was 52.6% [10] Related Attachments - The report includes various charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, and profit margins of rebar and hot-rolled coils, such as the summary prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, the basis of different contracts in Shanghai, the spreads between different contracts, and the profit margins of different contracts and production processes [15][17][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The market is worried about the tight supply of copper ore due to Chile raising the premium on copper spot to China and CSPT members reducing the mine - copper production capacity load by 10% next year. The supply of refined copper in China is increasing as the smelters are operating well and the previously affected production capacity is gradually resuming. The high copper price in the short - term suppresses the downstream purchasing sentiment, and the downstream is more cautious, mainly replenishing goods based on rigid demand. The year - end sales rush of car companies and the rush work of the power system provide some demand resilience for Shanghai copper, and the social inventory is still slightly decreasing. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging. The report suggests light - position volatile trading and attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 91,850 yuan/ton, up 760 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,613 dollars/ton, up 126 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 70 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 200,373 lots, down 10,199 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 44,609 lots, down 10,180 lots. The LME copper inventory is 165,675 tons, up 1,125 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 88,905 tons, down 9,025 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 63,100 tons, down 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 28,931 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 91,700 yuan/ton, down 515 yuan; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper is 91,675 yuan/ton, down 595 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 46 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 42 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, down 1,275 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 0 dollars/ton, down 8.19 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.86 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars/kiloton. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 81,950 yuan/metal ton, down 600 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 82,650 yuan/metal ton, down 600 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, down 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 62,990 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 970 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 4,824.34 billion yuan, up 446.27 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.15%, up 0.13%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.17%, down 0.33%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 16.28%, down 0.0430%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.24, up 0.0131 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the retail industry should be the key focus for cultivating a complete domestic demand system and strengthening the domestic cycle, promoting the industry to shift towards quality - driven and service - driven development. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third time with internal differences, and the market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized that China's economy will maintain a steady and positive momentum, with the economic aggregate reaching a new level and industrial upgrading creating new development space. In November, the CPI decreased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month and increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [2].