Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main revenue remains stable, with a significant improvement in profitability. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 10.665 billion and 538 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 3% and an increase of 25% [5] - The low-temperature product category continues to perform well, with expectations for new products to drive further growth. Revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other categories for 2024 were 9.836 billion, 71 million, and 758 million yuan, respectively, with liquid milk showing a stable performance [6] - Direct sales channels are growing rapidly, particularly in the East China region, with direct sales revenue reaching 6.225 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11% [8] - The company aims to double its net profit margin over the next five years, focusing on expanding its core business and enhancing corporate value [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue was 10.665 billion yuan, with a net profit of 538 million yuan, reflecting a 25% increase year-on-year. The Q1 2025 figures showed a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan and a net profit of 133 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 0.4% and 48% respectively [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 28.36%, increasing by 1.5 percentage points, while the net margin was 5.15%, up by 1.2 percentage points [5] Product Performance - The low-temperature milk segment, including fresh milk and yogurt, achieved mid-to-high single-digit growth, with the "24-hour" series seeing over 15% revenue growth [6] - New product launches contributed to maintaining a double-digit revenue share, with the "初心" series and "活润" brand both achieving significant growth [6][7] Sales Channels - Direct sales revenue reached 6.225 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11%, while online sales through platforms like Douyin and JD.com grew by 32% [8] - The company's self-developed "鲜活 go" platform has shown significant growth in user retention and repurchase rates [8] Profit Forecast - The company projects EPS of 0.78, 0.92, and 1.03 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 19, and 17 times [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated a significant profit release exceeding expectations, with a continuous breakthrough in the low-temperature product category [1] - The main business revenue remains stable, and profitability has improved significantly, with a notable increase in net profit margin [5] - The company aims to enhance its core business and achieve a doubling of net profit margin over the next five years [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 10.665 billion and 538 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 3% and an increase of 25% [5] - For Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 2.625 billion and 133 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.4% and 48% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 28.36% and 5.15%, respectively, with improvements noted in Q1 2025 [5] Product Performance - The liquid milk segment generated revenue of 9.836 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1% [6] - Low-temperature products, including fresh milk and yogurt, achieved mid to high single-digit growth, with the "24-hour" series seeing over 15% revenue growth [6][7] Sales Channels - Direct sales revenue reached 6.225 billion yuan in 2024, up 11% year-on-year, while distribution revenue declined by 13% [8] - Online sales through platforms like Douyin and JD.com generated 1.161 billion yuan, marking a 32% increase [8] Earnings Forecast - The company projects EPS of 0.78, 0.92, and 1.03 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 19, and 17 times [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 10.665 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 538 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.8% [3][10] - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 are forecasted to be 28.36% and 5.04%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [3] - The company has optimized its management expenses and reduced financial costs, contributing to a decrease in the financial expense ratio [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 251.6 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.94%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 28.08% [4] - The company's revenue from liquid milk is expected to grow against the trend, while the overall revenue decline is attributed to the divestment of the yogurt business and contraction in trade operations [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 262.5 million yuan, with a net profit increase of 48.46% year-on-year [7] Product and Market Insights - The high-end "24-hour" series is expected to continue to grow, with revenue increasing by over 15% year-on-year [5] - The company has expanded its delivery coverage to 141 cities and regions, and the number of image stores has surpassed 500 [5] - The direct sales model has seen an increase in revenue, with direct sales accounting for 62.83% of total sales, up by 6.02 percentage points [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.197 billion yuan, 11.963 billion yuan, and 13.005 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 685 million yuan, 838 million yuan, and 1.001 billion yuan [10][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.80 yuan in 2025 to 1.16 yuan in 2027, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 22 to 15 [10][12]