Core Insights - New Dairy achieved revenue and net profit growth in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 5.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.76% [1] - The company maintained a sales net profit margin of 7.40%, an increase of over 1.72 percentage points year-on-year, and reduced its asset-liability ratio to 62.53%, down 2.08 percentage points from the beginning of the period [1] - The company’s commitment to its "fresh" core value and strategic iteration in response to market trends has driven stable growth, focusing on a three-pronged product strategy of "fresh sour drinks" [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, New Dairy's net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 411 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.17% [1] - The total amount of interim and annual dividends for 2024 increased by 90% compared to the previous year [1] Product and Brand Strategy - New Dairy has multiple star brands such as "Asahi Weipin," "Xichang Sanmu," "Today's Fresh Milk Shop," "Huirun," and "Chuxin," which leverage their unique product and brand characteristics to enhance marketing innovation and user engagement [2] - The company is positioned as a "technology nutrition food enterprise," focusing on a three-part R&D system that includes a research institute, a global research network, and a technology transfer platform [2] Market Positioning and Future Outlook - 2025 is a pivotal year for New Dairy as it implements its new five-year strategic plan, emphasizing the "Fresh Cube Strategy" and the "fresh" value it offers to consumers [2] - The company recognizes the importance of safety, nutrition, taste, and emotional value to consumers, aiming to strengthen its core competitiveness through product innovation, technological advancements, and operational capabilities [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.76% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a significant increase in gross margin and net profit margin in Q2 2025, indicating strong operational efficiency and cost management [3] - The company is committed to its "Fresh Cube Strategy," focusing on product and channel development to drive growth in the competitive dairy industry [4] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company generated revenue of 5.526 billion yuan, with a net profit of 397 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 411 million yuan, reflecting increases of 33.76% and 31.17% year-on-year respectively [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%, and a net profit of 263 million yuan, up 27.37% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 30.02%, and for Q2 2025 it was 30.49%, showing year-on-year increases of 0.79 and 1.40 percentage points respectively [3] Business Model Analysis - In H1 2025, the company’s direct sales and distribution revenues were 3.387 billion yuan and 1.726 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 22.96% and a decline of 18.75% respectively [1] - The company’s liquid milk, milk powder, and other products generated revenues of 5.067 billion yuan, 46 million yuan, and 413 million yuan in H1 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.60%, 32.29%, and a decline of 14.99% respectively [2] Regional Performance - In H1 2025, the company’s revenue from different regions was as follows: Southwest 1.970 billion yuan, East China 1.605 billion yuan, North China 451 million yuan, Northwest 667 million yuan, and others 832 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.09%, 6.79%, -15.81%, -1.86%, and 7.92% respectively [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on the development of low-temperature products, which saw double-digit growth in H1 2025, particularly in high-end fresh milk and the "Today Fresh Milk" brand [4] - The company is enhancing its brand exposure through increased advertising spending, which rose by 25.17% year-on-year, while also achieving significant reductions in labor and management costs [3] Investor Returns - The company has prioritized investor returns, with a 90% increase in the total amount of mid-year and annual dividends for 2024 compared to the previous year [5]

公司点评 | 新乳业 鲜立方战略坚定落地，盈利能力显著提升 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 新乳业（002946.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 事件：公司发布 25 年半年报，25H1 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分 别为 55.26 亿元/3.97 亿元/4.11 亿元，对应分别+3.0%/+33.8%/+31.2%；25Q2 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 29.0 亿元/2.6 亿元/2.7 亿元， 对应分别+5.5%/+27.4%/+26.9%。 低温战略成效显著，核心品类驱动增长。在行业需求分化的背景下，公司坚定 "鲜立方"战略，低温品类销售额同比增超 10%。其中，高端鲜奶与"今日鲜 奶铺"均实现双位数增长，"活润"系列凭借产品创新与场景拓展，实现超 40% 的高速增长。鲜立方驱动下，25H1 公司液奶收入+4.6%至 50.7 亿元，在营收占 比进一步提升至 91.7% 渠道端：DTC 模式继续引领公司增长，25H1 直销模式收入+23.0%至 33.9 亿元， 营收占比提升至 66.3%；顺应趋势推动线上线下深度融合，25H1 电商渠道收入 +15.4%至 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is positioned to lead in the low-temperature dairy market, with a focus on enhancing profitability through strategic initiatives and product innovation [2][23] - The overall dairy industry in China is experiencing a downturn, but low-temperature dairy products are gaining traction due to their freshness and functional benefits, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [2][10] - The company aims for double-digit compound annual growth in revenue from 2023 to 2027, with a target to double its net profit margin [2][45] Industry Overview - The dairy industry in China is under pressure, with a projected decline in the milk and yogurt market from 2022 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of -4.18% [9] - Low-temperature dairy products are outperforming their ambient counterparts, with their market share increasing from 29.97% to 33.82% for yogurt and from 16.53% to 16.91% for fresh milk between 2021 and 2023 [2][18] - The competitive landscape for low-temperature dairy is relatively fragmented, with significant room for market concentration compared to the high concentration in ambient dairy products [2][21] Company Overview - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 10.665 billion in 2024, with a product matrix that includes both ambient and low-temperature dairy products [2][25] - The company has established a national presence through three rounds of acquisitions, differentiating itself from major competitors like Yili and Mengniu [2][29] - The company operates 52 subsidiaries and has a diverse brand portfolio under the "New Hope" umbrella, optimizing resource allocation across its brands [2][25] Growth Drivers - The company is expected to achieve revenue and profit growth in 2023-2024, driven primarily by the performance of low-temperature products [2][58] - The company maintains a strong focus on high-quality milk sources, with approximately 60% of its supply coming from self-owned and joint-venture sources [2][64] - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel is a core strategic focus, with plans to increase its contribution from 15% to 30% by 2027 [2][78] Profitability Enhancement Path - The company's net profit margin is expected to improve primarily due to an increase in gross margin, supported by an optimized cost structure [2][83] - The company has consistently achieved a double-digit revenue contribution from new products, indicating a strong innovation pipeline [2][68] - The gross margin is projected to rise as the company continues to enhance its product mix and optimize operational efficiencies [2][84]

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder, Universal Dairy Limited (UDL), plans to reduce its stake in New Dairy by up to 3% of the total share capital, amounting to approximately 487 million yuan based on the closing price on June 27, 2023, which has raised market attention given the company's stock price has doubled in the past year [1][2]. Shareholder Reduction Plan - UDL intends to sell 25.82 million shares within three months after the announcement, representing 3% of the total share capital, with a maximum of 8.61 million shares through centralized bidding and 17.21 million shares through block trading [2]. - UDL currently holds 560 million shares, accounting for 65.07% of the total share capital, and the actual controller is Liu Chang, who acquired these shares before the company went public [2]. - This marks the first significant reduction by the controlling shareholder since New Dairy's listing, and if the maximum reduction occurs, UDL's stake will decrease to 62.07%, still maintaining control [2]. Stock Performance and Financials - New Dairy operates primarily in regional markets, focusing on differentiated competition, with over 50% of its products being low-temperature items, surpassing the industry average [3]. - The stock price has seen a significant increase, from a low of 7.6 yuan in August 2024 to a peak of 21.19 yuan in 2025, reflecting a more than 160% increase [3]. - As of June 27, 2023, the stock price was 18.88 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 16.3 billion yuan [3]. - Despite a 2.93% decrease in revenue in 2024, the company reported a 48.46% year-on-year increase in net profit, attributed to product structure optimization and cost control [3]. Strategic Outlook and Market Reaction - New Dairy plans to continue its "Fresh Cube" strategy, focusing on low-temperature product development and expanding its cold chain distribution network by 50,000 new points, aiming to increase the revenue share of low-temperature products to 55% [4]. - Analysts note that while the reduction does not directly impact operations, it may affect market sentiment, with concerns about whether the funds will be reinvested into the company or used for individual shareholder needs [4].

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Dairy is responding positively to the regulatory encouragement for increased cash dividends, implementing a mid-term dividend for the first time in 2024, with a significant increase in the overall dividend rate [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, New Hope Dairy achieved operating revenue of 10.665 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 538 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.8% [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company continued to perform well, with operating revenue and net profit growth rates of 0.42% and 48.46% respectively [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company is advancing its "Fresh Cube Strategy" amidst a slowing growth environment in the domestic dairy industry, focusing on core business enhancement and value improvement to outperform the industry average [1] - New Hope Dairy is implementing a "Fresh Acid Dual Strong" product development strategy, leading to over 15% revenue growth in its mid-to-high-end product series [2] Group 3: Innovation and Market Potential - Innovation is a key driver for New Hope Dairy's business growth, with the company investing in talent, performance, and research projects to support new product development [2] - The low-temperature fresh milk market in China still has significant growth potential, with low overall penetration and regional imbalances, indicating a positive long-term industry trend [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2025, New Hope Dairy aims to enhance revenue growth and net profit margins while focusing on product innovation, effective channel expansion, and cost management [3] - The company plans to strengthen its technological capabilities through advancements in biotechnology and digital technology to create new production capacities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "Fresh Strategy" has been a fundamental approach for the company, leading to significant growth and new product development in response to market demands [1][4][10]. Group 1: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The dairy product market in China is experiencing a decline, with total production expected to drop to 29.62 million tons in 2024, a 1.9% decrease year-on-year, and liquid milk production seeing its first decline in five years [4]. - Consumer preferences are shifting, with high-end and low-end products both seeing increased demand, indicating a need for companies to develop products that resonate with diverse consumer needs [4][5]. - The company emphasizes that its pricing strategy is not influenced by short-term events like e-commerce promotions but focuses on providing stable quality products for consumers [4]. Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - Under the "Fresh Strategy," the company achieved a 24.80% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with a net profit margin of 5.15%, and a 48.46% increase in net profit in Q1 2025 [5]. - The company attributes its success to several factors, including a focus on high-end products, expansion into lower-tier markets, continuous innovation, and the promotion of products through new retail channels [5][9]. - The company plans to continue its focus on lower-tier markets, capitalizing on the growth in county-level consumption [9]. Group 3: Product Strategy - The company has evolved its product strategy from a focus on fresh products to a "Three Fresh" strategy, which includes low-temperature fresh milk, low-temperature yogurt, and beverages [10][13]. - The introduction of the "Three Fresh" strategy aims to enhance the company's core business and achieve a doubling of net profit margin within five years [10][14]. - The company believes that the beverage sector presents a significant growth opportunity, particularly in low-temperature cold chain products [14].

Core Viewpoint - The company is preparing for its 2024 Annual General Meeting, focusing on various proposals including financial reports, budget plans, and compensation schemes for executives and board members [1][4][5]. Group 1: Meeting Structure and Procedures - The meeting will be chaired by Chairman Xi Gang, and shareholders will have the right to speak, inquire, and vote on each proposal [1][2]. - Voting will be conducted through a combination of on-site and online methods, with results announced immediately [2][4]. - The meeting will include the election of vote counters and monitors from among the attending shareholders [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1,066,542.35 million yuan for 2024, a decrease of 2.93% compared to 2023 [6][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 53,769.09 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.80% year-on-year [6][13]. - The total assets as of December 31, 2024, amounted to 887,866.69 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.66% from the previous year [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Indicators - The company’s operating profit was reported at 68,000.76 million yuan, an increase of 33.89% from 2023 [6]. - The basic earnings per share rose to 0.62 yuan, a 24.00% increase compared to the previous year [6][12]. - The asset-liability ratio improved from 70.47% to 64.61%, indicating a reduction of 5.86 percentage points [6][9]. Group 4: Budget and Financing Proposals - The company proposed a financing guarantee limit of 575 million yuan for 2025, which would not exceed 18.82% of the latest audited net assets [21][22]. - The company plans to apply for a comprehensive credit limit from financial institutions for 2025, with specific details to be discussed at the meeting [23].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a total revenue of 10.665 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 2.93% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.8% to 538 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.516 billion yuan, down 9.94% year-on-year, with a net profit of 63.974 million yuan, up 28.08% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.42% year-on-year, and a net profit of 133 million yuan, up 48.46% [1] - The company's liquid milk business generated revenue of 9.907 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 0.75%, while other business revenues fell by 34.27% to 758 million yuan [2] Group 2: Profitability and Margins - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 1.12 percentage points to 5.04%, and the gross margin improved by 1.49 percentage points to 28.36% [3] - In Q4 2024, the net profit margin rose by 0.75 percentage points to 2.54%, with a gross margin of 25.99% [3] - For Q1 2025, the net profit margin increased by 1.64 percentage points to 5.08%, and the gross margin was 29.5% [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus and Future Outlook - The company continues to focus on the "Fresh Cube" strategy, enhancing its fresh product capabilities despite overall weak liquid milk demand [4] - The company is leveraging innovation and digital transformation to drive growth, with expectations of net profits of 703 million yuan and 830 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a projected PE valuation of 22 and 18 times for 2025 and 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry is facing challenges with a decline in revenue for the first time in ten years, prompting the need for alternative growth strategies amidst a competitive market environment [1][3][4] Group 1: Revenue and Financial Performance - New Dairy's revenue decreased by 2.93% to 10.665 billion yuan in the last fiscal year, marking the first decline since 2015 [1][3] - The company reported a net increase of 52 distributors in 2024, but revenue from the distribution model fell by 13.29% year-on-year [3] - The Southwest region, which accounts for approximately 36% of New Dairy's revenue, saw a 6.51% decline in income, negatively impacting overall performance [3] Group 2: Product Strategy and Market Positioning - New Dairy launched a new product, "Super Pasteurized Milk," in collaboration with Jingtailan, aiming to capture the low-temperature milk market [1][4] - The company is focusing on high-end products, with low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt achieving mid-single-digit growth, while high-end fresh milk and low-temperature modified milk saw double-digit growth [3][4] - The "Super Pasteurized Milk" is positioned as a compromise product, offering taste similar to pasteurized milk while retaining better nutritional value than shelf-stable milk [4][5] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Strategic Response - The dairy industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, particularly in high-end yogurt sales, due to increased competition and market saturation [4][6] - New Dairy's strategy includes maintaining focus on core product categories, innovating to meet new consumer trends, and enhancing regional market penetration [4][6] - The company is also addressing internal management efficiencies to reduce costs and improve profitability amidst a challenging external environment [6]