Core Viewpoint - The main task for dairy companies in the new year is to overcome declining performance, with many companies announcing profit warnings due to intensified market competition and weak consumer recovery. Companies are shifting towards scenario marketing and functional products to rebuild differentiated competition and seek new market growth [2]. Market Competition - The competition in the dairy market is intensifying, with traditional subscription models facing challenges from supermarkets, e-commerce, and instant retail offering lower-priced fresh milk. For instance, the price of mainstream low-temperature fresh milk is around 9 to 11 yuan for 900ml, while supermarket private labels can go as low as 7 to 8 yuan [4][5]. - Data from Nielsen IQ indicates that from January to November 2025, the growth rate of the domestic dairy market declined by 8.8%. Major dairy companies like Yili, Mengniu, and Guangming reported varying degrees of performance decline in their Q3 reports, with net profits remaining negative despite some recovery efforts [5]. Shift Towards Scenario and Functional Products - Since 2023, growth in the domestic dairy sector has primarily been driven by product structure upgrades, including increased protein content and a shift from ambient to low-temperature products. However, product homogenization continues to pose challenges, particularly in the low-temperature fresh milk segment, leading to price wars [7]. - Companies are focusing on rebuilding differentiation through high-value products and innovations in scenario-based and functional offerings. For example, Guangming Dairy has launched products targeting fitness enthusiasts and specific health needs, such as high-protein yogurt and functional probiotics [8][10]. - Yili's management emphasizes a transition from volume-driven growth to quality-driven growth, with structural growth being influenced by rising health awareness and demand for diversified dairy products in high-tier cities. The adult nutrition market is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2030, indicating significant potential for differentiated product categories [9]. Innovations and Market Strategies - Scenario-based products are a key focus for dairy companies, aiming to attract consumers by leveraging emotional value. For instance, Guangming Dairy introduced a product inspired by local cultural symbols, while San Yuan rebranded its fresh milk to emphasize local identity and freshness [10]. - Despite ongoing fierce competition in traditional liquid milk products, the shift towards functional and scenario-based innovations is seen as a way for companies to escape price competition and align with the growing trend of family nutrition [10].

Core Insights - The dairy industry is facing performance challenges due to homogenization leading to price wars, with companies struggling to maintain profitability as they adapt to changing market conditions [1][3] Market Competition - The competition in the dairy market is intensifying, with a notable decrease in subscription customers for companies like San Yuan, attributed to rational consumer spending and aggressive pricing from supermarkets and e-commerce platforms [2][3] - The price of mainstream low-temperature fresh milk ranges from 9 to 11 yuan for 900ml, while private label products can be as low as 7 to 8 yuan for the same volume, highlighting the fierce price competition [2] Industry Performance - Data from Nielsen IQ indicates an 8.8% decline in the growth of the domestic dairy market from January to November 2025, reflecting insufficient consumer demand [3] - Major dairy companies, including Yili, Mengniu, and Guangming, reported varying degrees of performance decline in their Q3 reports for 2025, with net profits remaining negative despite some operational adjustments [3] Product Innovation and Differentiation - Post-2023, growth in the dairy sector is primarily driven by product structure upgrades, focusing on enhancing nutritional content and transitioning from ambient to low-temperature products, although homogenization remains a challenge [4] - Companies are increasingly focusing on creating differentiated, high-value products through scenario-based and functional innovations to escape the price competition trap [4][7] - Guangming Dairy has introduced several innovative products targeting specific consumer needs, such as high-protein yogurt for fitness enthusiasts and functional probiotics for health management [5][6] Future Trends - The dairy industry is shifting from a growth-focused model to one that emphasizes diversification and precision nutrition, driven by rising health awareness among consumers [6] - The market for adult nutritional products is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2030, indicating significant growth potential in differentiated product categories [6] - Scenario-based products are becoming a key focus for companies, aiming to leverage emotional value to attract and retain customers in a competitive market [7]