Core Points - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% for the third consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [1] - The central bank indicated that further rate cuts may occur if the economy weakens and inflation pressures remain controlled [1] - Core inflation has recently rebounded, but the central bank is uncertain about its sustainability [1] Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada presented three economic scenarios regarding the US-Canada trade situation, predicting a growth rebound to 1% in the second half of the year if current tariff levels remain unchanged [2] - If the US reduces tariffs on non-USMCA goods and Canada reciprocates, it could further boost growth; conversely, an escalation in trade tensions could lead to economic contraction and increased inflation pressures [2] - The central bank forecasts a decline in the inflation rate from 2.3% to 1.9% by 2025, partly due to the federal government's cancellation of the carbon tax [2] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the yield on Canadian two-year government bonds fell to 2.773%, and the Canadian dollar initially dropped before recovering [1] - The market interpreted the central bank's statement and the governor's comments as dovish, suggesting a more accommodative future policy stance [1] - Analysts noted that while the central bank did not signal an imminent rate cut, the current policy language does not end the easing cycle [2]

Group 1 - The S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada rose by 0.75%, closing at 26,073.13 points, surpassing the previous all-time closing high set on May 20 [1] - The small-cap index increased by 1.21%, reaching 857.88 points, breaking the historical closing high of 850.25 points established on April 13, 2022 [1] - Canadian 10-year benchmark government bond yields fell by 2.5 basis points, while 2-year yields decreased by 0.50 basis points and 5-year yields dropped by 2.3 basis points [1]