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雅迪控股(01585.HK):政策驱动景气度上行 龙头盈利修复可期
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-11 02:48
Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to return to rapid growth due to the old-for-new policy and the implementation of new national standards, with projected sales of 56 million and 61.75 million units in 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12% and 10% [1] - The old-for-new policy has shown significant effects, with 3.341 million electric bicycles sold for old-for-new exchanges nationwide as of April 8, 2025, and an average subsidy of 688 yuan per unit [1] - The new national standards set to be implemented in September 2024 will raise industry entry barriers, which is expected to maintain strong demand for older models in Q2 and Q3 [1] Market Structure - Leading companies like Yadea and Aima have significant advantages in product pricing and distribution channels, with projected sales of 13.02 million and 10.7 million units in 2024, corresponding to market shares of 26% and 21%, respectively, totaling 47% [1] - The commuting segment, which accounts for about 50% of the market, is driven by essential needs, while the entertainment segment (30%) focuses on brand appeal and design [2] - New brands like Ninebot have a first-mover advantage in the entertainment segment, but traditional companies are quickly adapting to close the gap [2] Company Performance - The company is expected to recover quickly in terms of sales and profitability following a period of aggressive expansion and deep adjustments in 2024 [2] - The company anticipates a healthy recovery in terminal channels starting from 2025, aided by the new national standards and the old-for-new policy [2] - The subsidiary Huayu Battery is expected to see rapid sales growth due to strong external demand for its "24-month true replacement" technology [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.93 billion, 3.55 billion, and 4.11 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.1, 10.0, and 8.6 [3]