| 诱惑红、 | 赤藓红、 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 酸性红 | 赤藓红、 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 胭脂红、 | 苯甲酸及 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 其钠盐(以 | 苯甲酸 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Zhao Chunwu as the chairman of China Resources Beer Holdings Co., Ltd. marks a significant leadership transition following the resignation of former chairman Hou Xiaohai, with a focus on sustaining the company's strategic direction and growth in the beer and liquor market [1][2]. Company Leadership Changes - Zhao Chunwu has been appointed as chairman and chairman of the finance committee effective September 3, 2025, after serving as president since August 2023 [1]. - Zhao has a long history with the company, having joined in 2003 and held various key positions across different regional subsidiaries [1]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2023, China Resources Beer reported revenue of 23.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.789 billion yuan, up 23% [2]. - The company's earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) reached 7.691 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.8% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 48.9%, up 2 percentage points [2]. - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.464 yuan per share, a 24.4% increase compared to the same period last year [2]. Strategic Direction - The company aims to continue its "14th Five-Year" strategy focused on high-end product development, leveraging its domestic and international brand advantages [2]. - Despite a slight decline in the overall beer industry, the company has maintained balanced growth across its product lines, with high-end products experiencing double-digit growth [2]. - Zhao emphasized the importance of strategic consistency while adapting to industry changes, indicating a strong consensus within the management team regarding future growth strategies [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer with a target price of HKD 33.69 based on a projected 19 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [4][10][6]. Core Views - The current consumption recovery has led to a downward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025. The expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are projected to be CNY 1.62, CNY 1.75, and CNY 1.86 respectively, down from the previous forecast of CNY 2.18 for 2025 [4][10]. - The "Su Chao" phenomenon is significantly stimulating beer demand, particularly benefiting China Resources Beer as a market leader in Jiangsu province. The report highlights a nearly 90% month-on-month increase in beer transaction volume in Jiangsu since the start of the "Su Chao" event [9][10]. - The company is expected to continue strong growth in mid-to-high-end products, with Heineken brand sales increasing by 20% in the first five months of the year [9][10]. - The diversification of sales channels, particularly through instant retail partnerships, is seen as a key growth driver for the company [9][10]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2023 is CNY 38,932 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.40%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline slightly to CNY 38,635 million, followed by a recovery to CNY 39,835 million in 2025 [5][13]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from CNY 4,427 million in 2023 to CNY 6,232 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.96% [5][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be CNY 5,153 million in 2023, with a slight decline in 2024 to CNY 4,739 million, before recovering to CNY 5,255 million in 2025 [5][13]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 41.36% in 2023 to 44.86% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][13].