不久前公布的"2025年世界500强榜单"再次揭示了全球大型企业的经营状况。银行、车辆与零部件、炼油和金属产品等行业上榜的企业最多，而饮料行业仅 有四家企业上榜，凸显了这一行业的高度集中性与巨头控制的特征。 世界饮料工业的历史可以追溯至20世纪初，当时随着工业化进程的推进和城市化进程的加快，人们对饮品的需求日益增长，饮料生产逐渐从家庭作坊式转向 规模化、机械化。进入20世纪60年代后，饮料工业迎来了真正的"黄金时代"。这一时期，科技进步推动了大规模集中生产和高速度发展，矿泉水、碳酸饮 料、果汁、牛奶和啤酒等产品纷纷建立起现代化、自动化的生产体系。 饮料品类繁多，按生产工艺主要分为酒精饮料和非酒精饮料两大类。非酒精饮料包括碳酸饮料、果汁、功能饮料、茶饮、植物蛋白饮料等；而酒精饮料则以 啤酒、葡萄酒、烈酒为主。其中，啤酒作为全球消费量最大的酒精饮品之一，其市场集中度较高，形成了以百威英博、喜力、嘉士伯等为代表的国际巨头主 导的竞争格局。与此同时，软饮料领域则由可口可乐、百事可乐等品牌长期占据全球主要市场。 2025年世界500强榜单中的饮料集团 喜力公司排在世界500强榜单中第500名，以高品质啤酒著称，尤其在欧 ...

白酒业务方面，25H1 白酒收入7.81 亿元，同比-33.7%，其中大单品摘要占白酒收入接近80%，政策趋 严使得商务、高端宴席等明显受损，对销售拖累明显。 机构：东吴证券 研究员：苏铖/郭晓东 投资要点 事件：华润啤酒公告2025 年中报，25H1 实现营收239.42 亿元，同比+0.8%，归母净利润57.89 亿元，同 比+23.0%，不计特别项目的EBIT 为71.05 亿元，同比+11.3%，不计特别项目的EBITDA 为83.36 亿元， 同比+10.7%。公司派发中期股息0.464 元/股，同比+24.4%，中期派息率保持26%。 啤酒韧性升级，白酒主动调整。啤酒业务方面，25H1 啤酒收入231.61亿元，同比+2.6%，量价拆分来 看，25H1 销量648.7 万吨，同比+2.2%，吨价3570 元/吨，同比+0.4%。上半年面临消费弱β，公司积极 拥抱新消费趋势，一方面传统大单品仍韧性增长，次高档及以上销量增速中至高单位数，其中喜力销量 增长超20%，老雪销量增长超70%，红爵销量增长超100%；另一方面，开发德式小麦啤酒、茶啤、果 啤、青稞啤酒等特色产品，满足个性化和差异化消费需求，亦 ...

港股晨报 2025 年 8 月 22 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：港股三大指数集体收跌，医药逆市上扬 港股周四，三大指数震荡走弱集体收跌，恒生指数跌-0.24%，国企指数跌- 0.43%，恒生科技指数收跌-0.77%。大市成交跌至 2,394.87 亿元，主板总卖空 金额为 361.93 亿元，占可卖空股票总成交金额之比率为 16.74%。 南向资金北水方面，港股通交易净流入 74.61 亿港元。港股通 10 大成交活跃 股中，北水净买入最多的是腾讯控股 700.HK、美团 3690.HK、小米集团-W 1810.HK、中兴通讯 763.HK；净卖出最多的是阿里巴巴 9988.HK、中芯国际 981.HK、众安在线 6060.HK。 北向资金方面，8 月 21 日北向资金共成交 3097.72 亿元，占两市总成交额的 12.78%。寒武纪-U 688256.SH、工业富联 601138.SH、北方稀土 600111.SH 位列沪股通成交前三，成交额分别为 23.63 亿、18.92 亿、16.82 亿；中际旭 创 300308.SZ、新易盛 300502.SZ、东方财富 30 ...

Company Research - Futu Holdings (FUTU) is rated "Buy" with a target price of $195.00, representing a potential upside of 15.71% from the current price of $168.52[3][14] - Haitong International (1882) is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 30.00, maintaining the same EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026[2][12] - China Resources Beer (291) is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 35.00, reflecting an 18x PE for 2025, with a projected EPS growth of 8% for 2026[2][28] Financial Performance - Futu Holdings expects total revenue to grow from HKD 10,008 million in 2023 to HKD 19,531 million in 2025, a growth rate of 43.7%[12] - The net profit for Futu Holdings is projected to increase from HKD 4,279 million in 2023 to HKD 9,413 million in 2025, representing a growth of 73.3%[12] - China Resources Beer reported a net profit of HKD 57.9 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23%[24] Market Trends - Futu Holdings is leveraging its technology and regulatory licenses to capture the cross-border wealth management market, with a focus on Southeast Asia and Web 3.0 innovations[10][8] - China Resources Beer is focusing on premiumization, with high-end product sales growing over 10%, significantly outperforming the industry[25][27] - Haitong International's overseas sales surged by 34.7% year-on-year, driven by demand in Southeast Asia and a strategic focus on key industry clients[20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is driven by premiumization, cost advantages, and effective management strategies, with a notable increase in gross profit margin [3][4] - The beer segment shows resilience with significant sales growth in premium products, while the liquor segment is undergoing adjustments due to regulatory impacts [4][10] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 38,932 million, with a slight increase to 39,155 million in 2025, and further growth expected in subsequent years [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 5,153 million in 2023 to 6,017 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 26.97% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to increase from 1.59 in 2023 to 1.85 in 2025, with a corresponding decrease in P/E ratio from 16.38 to 14.02 [1] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 239.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a net profit of 57.89 billion, up 23.0% [10] - The beer revenue for the same period was 231.61 billion, reflecting a 2.6% increase, with sales volume reaching 648.7 thousand tons, a 2.2% rise [10] - Premium products like Heineken and Snow Beer saw sales growth exceeding 20% and 70% respectively, indicating strong market demand [10]

Group 1: Company Performance and Growth - The report highlights a significant revenue increase for Bubble Mart, achieving RMB 13.88 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 204.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Bubble Mart reached RMB 4.71 billion, a substantial increase of 362.8% year-on-year, with improved profitability reflected in a gross margin of 70.3% and a net profit margin of 33.9% [1][2] - Management has raised the full-year revenue forecast for 2025 to no less than RMB 30 billion, previously set at RMB 20 billion, with an expected net profit margin of 35% [1][2] Group 2: IP Diversification and Market Expansion - Bubble Mart's diverse IP matrix has driven rapid revenue growth, with the core IP "The Monsters" series seeing a staggering 668% increase in revenue to RMB 4.81 billion in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company has expanded its IP portfolio, with four other major IPs generating over RMB 1 billion each, alleviating concerns about reliance on a single IP [2] - Both domestic and overseas markets have shown rapid growth, with plans to increase store presence in overseas markets to over 200 by year-end, including more than 60 in the Americas [2] Group 3: Financial Projections and Market Position - The report projects a 39-49% increase in profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with a target price adjustment to HKD 394.00, maintaining a "Buy" rating for Bubble Mart [2] - The report emphasizes the company's strong IP operation capabilities and ongoing globalization efforts, positioning it as a preferred stock in the consumer sector [2] Group 4: Other Company Highlights - WuXi AppTec reported a 62% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 2.7 billion in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin improvement to 36.1% [3] - Management has raised the full-year revenue growth guidance from 35% to over 45%, anticipating continued margin improvements in the second half of 2025 [3] - The report notes that the company is expected to invest RMB 1.56 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, with a total of RMB 7 billion by 2029 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Resources Beer (00291) has exceeded expectations in its first half performance, driven by sales growth in mid-to-high-end beer segments, which has led to an increase in average selling prices [1] - The company plans to continue focusing on Heineken as its core brand while also strengthening its mid-to-high-end market as another growth driver during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The brokerage expects that the adjustment phase of the liquor business in the second half of the year will not worsen further, but any potential impairment will depend on business operations [1] Group 2 - The brokerage maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted from HKD 35 to HKD 33.8 to reflect the weakness in the liquor business [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [2][17]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit increasing by 0.8% and 23.0% year-on-year, reaching RMB 239.4 billion and RMB 57.9 billion respectively [6][15]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to the upgrade of the beer business structure, the release of raw material cost benefits, and effective cost control under the "Three Precision" strategy [6]. - The target price for the company has been raised to HKD 35.90, reflecting a potential upside of 26.9% from the current price of HKD 28.28 [1][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 38,932 million in 2023, RMB 38,635 million in 2024, and estimated growth to RMB 39,239 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.6% [5][15]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,153 million in 2023 to RMB 5,807 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.5% [5][9]. - The beer business showed a revenue increase of 2.6% to RMB 231.6 billion, driven by sales volume growth of 2.2% and a slight price increase of 0.4% [6][8]. Business Segment Analysis - The beer segment's gross margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3%, while the adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 3.4 percentage points to 35.1% [6][8]. - The white liquor segment faced challenges, with a significant revenue decline of 33.7% to RMB 7.8 billion, attributed to ongoing difficulties in the business banquet scene [6][8]. - The company plans to focus on developing mass-market and light bottle liquor products to reshape its pricing structure and expand coverage in the mid-to-low-end liquor market [6]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted, with revenue estimates reduced by 1-5%, while EBITDA and net profit margins are expected to improve by 0.9-1.8 and 0-1.5 percentage points respectively [6][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report maintains the 2025/26 core net profit estimates for China Resources Beer at 5.31/5.75 billion HKD, with a target price of 32.4 HKD, indicating a 15% upside potential from the current stock price [1] - The beer segment's performance in 1H25 slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of 23.94 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and core EBIT of 7.11 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [2] - The beer business outperformed the overall industry, benefiting from a decrease in raw material costs, with a year-on-year decline in ton cost of 4.2% and an increase in gross margin by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% [3] Group 2 - The white liquor business faced greater pressure than market expectations, with a revenue decline of 34% in 1H25 and EBITDA down by 47.2% [4] - The company plans to launch products priced between 100-300 HKD to strengthen the brand and adjust the pricing system to ensure channel profitability [4] - The outlook for the beer business in the second half of the year remains stable, with expectations of maintaining low growth in both sales volume and ton price, while the gross margin is projected to increase by over 1 percentage point [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beer Holdings Company Limited reported a revenue of 23.94 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8% while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 23% to 5.789 billion yuan [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved an EBITDA of 7.691 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.8% [2] - The board declared an interim dividend of 0.464 yuan per share, up 24.4% from the same period last year [2] - Beer sales volume reached approximately 6.487 million kiloliters, marking a 2.2% increase year-on-year [2] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company emphasizes a high-end development strategy, with a notable performance in the high-end beer segment, which has seen double-digit growth over the past two years [2] - The average selling price of beer increased by 0.4% due to ongoing high-end development and cost savings in raw material procurement [2] - The gross margin for the beer business rose by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% in the first half of 2025 [2] Group 3: White Spirit Business - The white spirit segment generated a revenue of 781 million yuan, with an EBITDA of 218 million yuan [3] - The company is adapting to market changes by adjusting its product structure and plans to launch boxed and light bottle spirits at a price point of around 100 yuan [3] - The company maintains a positive growth trajectory despite challenges in the white spirit market, attributed to its diversified product matrix and extensive channel coverage [3]