新华财经北京12月5日电印度央行周五(5日)将政策利率下调25BPs至5.25%，与预测相符。这是印度央行今年第四次降息，继2月份开始的 三次降息后，印度央行2025年的累计降息幅度达到125BPs。 印度金融市场对如期降息迅速做出了反应。周五上午，在印度央行宣布降息之前，卢比兑美元开盘短暂走强，接近89.85卢比。在降息的 新闻出现后，卢比兑美元回落至90卢比以上。 债券市场方面，10年期印债收益率在消息发布前徘徊在6.5%附近，交易员们密切关注通胀预测和任何公开市场操作。降息宣布后，加上 1万亿卢比的公开市场买债消息，市场对印度政府债券普遍看涨，10年期印债收益率小幅回落至6.49%。分析师预计随着印度央行在12月 开始购买债券后，收益率将会进一步下降。目前2年期与10年期印债收益率利差为79.6BPs。 据标准普尔2025年8月14日的最新评级，印度的信用评级为BBB。5年期印度信用违约掉期的当前报价为87.67BPs。相应的，隐含违约概 率为1.46%。 印度股市认为这一决定是积极的，尤其是对利率敏感的行业。在货币政策委员会做出决定后，印度房地产、汽车和金融类股表现优异， Nifty Realty指数 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Indian government bonds, expecting a 25 basis points cut in the repo rate, which will enhance the attractiveness of these bonds [21][24][30]. Core Insights - The Indian economy is moving towards a better growth-inflation balance, with improved consumption activity noted in April. The real GDP growth forecast for CY25 has been slightly raised to 6.3% year-on-year [21][24]. - Headline CPI inflation in March reached a 5.5-year low of 3.3% year-on-year, primarily driven by a decline in food inflation [21][24]. - Financial conditions in India have eased due to a combination of policy rate cuts and improved liquidity in the banking system, resulting in over 100 basis points of easing since January 2025 [21][24][30]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Insights - Economists estimate that nonfarm payrolls rose by 110,000 in May, which is below the consensus of 125,000 and the three-month average of 155,000. This indicates a potential slowdown in job creation [3][4][6]. - The unemployment rate is estimated to remain unchanged at 4.2%, with average hourly earnings expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month [5][6]. Indian Monetary Policy Outlook - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% in the upcoming meeting, with further cuts anticipated in Q3 [21][23][30]. - The report suggests that the RBI may not want to maintain an ex-ante real interest rate below 1%, especially with a balanced growth outlook [23][24]. Currency and Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the Brazilian Real (BRL) and Mexican Peso (MXN) are expected to perform well in the emerging market currency space, particularly against the USD [2][4][14]. - The report also notes that the Swiss Franc (CHF) and Japanese Yen (JPY) have deviated from the regression model based on rate differentials, indicating potential trading opportunities [2][5].