出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：郝显 在行业环境改变，需求下滑的背景下，口子窖核心产品受到较大影响，去年前三季度主要收入来源的高 档白酒收入一举减少27.98%，经营活动现金流也首次转负。 口子窖去年净利润同比减少50%到60% 四季度或陷亏损 1月7日，口子窖发布了2025年年度业绩预减公告，预计2025年年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 66，210.00万元到82，760.00万元，同比减少50%到60%。扣非净利润为64，527万元至81，077万元， 与上年同期相比，将同比减少49.65%至59.93%。 2025年前三季度口子窖实现归母净利润74201.16万元，这意味着四季度净利润为-7991.16万元至8558.84 万元，有可能陷入亏损。 近日，口子窖发布了2025年年度业绩预减公告，预计2025年归母净利润66，210.00万元到82，760.00万 元，同比减少50%到60%，按照2025年前三季度业绩数据估算，四季度净利润为-7991.16万元至8558.84 万元，有可能陷入亏损。 分季度来看，2025年一季度以来，口子窖净利润持续大幅下滑，三季度仅为2696.51万元，同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kouzi Jiao's financial performance has significantly declined in the first half of the year, with revenue and net profit both experiencing substantial drops due to market challenges and regulatory impacts on sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2023, Kouzi Jiao reported revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07%, and a net profit of 715 million yuan, down 24.63% [1]. - The second quarter saw a dramatic revenue decline of 48.48%, nearly halving compared to the same period last year [2]. - The cash collection ratio fell to 89%, with net cash flow from operating activities turning negative, resulting in an outflow of 383 million yuan [3]. Inventory and Production - Inventory increased from 5.493 billion yuan to 6.159 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days rising from 1,242 days to 1,585 days [4]. - As of mid-2023, fixed assets reached 3.259 billion yuan, with ongoing construction projects totaling 942 million yuan, while the designed production capacity for 2024 is 80,000 kiloliters, with an actual production of 39,500 kiloliters, leading to a capacity utilization rate of only 49% [5]. Market Dynamics - The company primarily generates revenue from the Anhui provincial market, focusing on mid-range to high-end products priced between 100 yuan and 400 yuan, which are significantly affected by recent market conditions [2]. - The white liquor industry is experiencing market segmentation and channel changes, with overall demand declining and inventory levels remaining high [2]. Sales and Marketing Strategy - Kouzi Jiao has been transitioning from a large distributor model to a "1+N" small distributor model to enhance market coverage and adapt to changing consumer preferences [6]. - The company has updated its product series to target higher-end markets, but the current market environment poses challenges for product upgrades [7]. Shareholder Activity - Following the decline in performance, major shareholders have begun to reduce their holdings, with plans for significant share sales announced [7].

Core Viewpoint - Kouzi Jiao reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of the year, with a 20.07% drop in revenue to 2.531 billion yuan and a 24.63% decrease in net profit to 715 million yuan, primarily due to the impact of a liquor ban and reduced demand for mid-to-high-end liquor [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2, Kouzi Jiao's revenue plummeted by 48.48% compared to the same period last year, marking a near halving of sales [1]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities turned negative, with a net outflow of 383 million yuan, and the cash collection ratio dropped to 89% [2]. - Inventory increased from 5.493 billion yuan to 6.159 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days rising from 1,242 days to 1,585 days [3]. Group 2: Market Environment - The liquor industry is experiencing market differentiation and channel changes, leading to a decline in production and sluggish sales growth [2]. - The liquor ban and restrictions on graduation banquets have significantly impacted sales, particularly in the mid-to-high-end market [2]. Group 3: Business Model and Strategy - Kouzi Jiao's traditional distribution model, which relies heavily on a few key distributors, has limited its market control and ability to promote new products [4]. - The company is transitioning from a large distributor model to a "1+N" small distributor model to enhance market coverage [5]. - Despite efforts to upgrade products and expand distribution channels, the effectiveness of these reforms remains uncertain in the current market downturn [5]. Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The sales expense ratio reached 15.28% in 2024, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points from 2021, driven by increased promotional spending [6]. - Net profit margin has declined, with the 2025 first half net profit margin at 28.25%, down nearly 2 percentage points from 2021 [6]. - The actual controller of the company has initiated a share reduction plan, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future performance [6].