腾讯财经 . 腾讯新闻旗下腾讯财经官方账号，在这里读懂财经！ 以下文章来源于腾讯财经 ，作者胡保森 导语：面对白酒行业深度调整期，口子窖降速明显，不仅失守"徽酒老二"的位置，其"打造百亿口子"的战略目标与"全国化蓝图"也遭遇到前所未有的挑 战。 兼香型白酒龙头、徽酒"四朵金花"之一的 口子窖 （ 603589.SH ） 8 月 19 日发布了 2025 年半年度报告，交出了一份令市场哗然的成绩单： 2025 年上半年，口子窖实现营收 25.31 亿元，同比下滑 20.07% ；归母净利润 7.15 亿元，同比下降 24.63% ；扣非后净利润 6.98 亿元，同 比下降 24.90% 。 | 主要会计数据 | 本报告期 (1-6月) | 上年同期 | 本报告期比上 年同期增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | | 营业收入 | 2.530.980.655.68 | 3, 166, 345, 142. 89 | -20. 07 | | 利润总额 | 946, 527, 325. 69 | 1, 279, 107, 663. 17 | -26.00 | | 归属于 ...

盈利预测与投资建议 口子窖 603589.SH 公司研究 | 中报点评 控货稳价业绩承压，静待需求复苏 核心观点 ⚫ 根据 25 年中报，对 25-26 年下调收入、毛利率。我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收 益分别为 2.23、2.16、2.37 元（原预测 25-26 年为 3.17、3.54 元）。结合可比公 司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 17 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 37.91 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 省内竞争加剧风险、渠道变革不及预期风险。 | 公司主要财务信息 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,962 | 6,015 | 4,929 | 4,859 | 5,298 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.1% | 0.9% | -18.0% | -1.4% | 9.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,326 | 2,280 | 1,837 | 1,779 | 1,947 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 34.65 yuan [5]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 2.531 billion yuan and a net profit of 715 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 20.07% and 24.63% respectively [1]. - The high-end liquor segment saw a substantial drop in revenue, contributing to a shift in product structure, with high-end liquor accounting for 94.13% of total revenue in Q2 2025, down from previous periods [1]. - The company is expected to recover in the medium to long term as market conditions improve, with projected net profits of 1.044 billion yuan, 1.193 billion yuan, and 1.420 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the gross margin was 73.07%, down 2.78 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin dropped to 14.51%, a decrease of 11.18 percentage points [2]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios were 14.09% and 7.37% respectively for the first half of 2025, indicating a strategic adjustment in marketing expenses [2]. - Forecasts for revenue and net profit show a decline in 2025, with expected revenues of 4.691 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.044 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor sector and food products [1] Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing extreme pressure testing, with a significant focus on inventory clearance and bottoming out of financial reports. The second quarter has shown weak demand due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to a notable decline in sales and pricing pressures [5][10] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai are expected to maintain growth, while mid-tier brands face challenges with declining revenues and profits. The overall industry is in a deep clearance phase, with potential for recovery as regulations stabilize [5][12] - The consumer goods sector shows mixed performance, with snacks and beverages remaining strong, while other segments like frozen foods and chain restaurants face ongoing demand pressures [20][25] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is experiencing extreme pressure, with weak demand in the second quarter and significant inventory levels. Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to show modest growth, while others like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are facing declines [5][11][12] - Moutai's revenue is projected to grow by 7% in Q2, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 1% increase. In contrast, brands like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are forecasted to decline by 35% and 8% respectively [11][12] 2. Consumer Goods - The overall demand for consumer goods remains weak, but segments like snacks and beverages are performing well. For instance, East Peak is expected to see a 33% increase in revenue, while other snack brands are also showing positive trends [20][25] - The beverage sector is projected to see positive growth, with major brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing expected to report increases in revenue and profit [25][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performing stocks in the short term while considering long-term investments in liquor brands that are currently at their bottom. Brands like Moutai and Gujing are recommended for their lower risk profiles [7][8] - For consumer goods, companies like Anqi and East Peak are highlighted for their growth potential, while traditional dairy brands like Yili and Mengniu are suggested for a bundled investment approach [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit primarily due to increased sales expenses related to consumer promotions, which are intended to enhance consumer engagement and brand interaction [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The management indicated that the increase in sales expenses is a strategic move to boost consumer loyalty and brand interaction [1] - The company has experienced a slowdown in terminal sales, particularly after the alcohol ban, which significantly impacted mid-to-high-end liquor sales [1] - The management acknowledged that the gross sales margin has been declining over the past two quarters, attributing this to adjustments in sales expenses in response to market competition [2] Group 2: Product Strategy - The company is addressing the overlap in price ranges between its new and old products by considering consumer needs and market competition when adjusting its product mix [1] - The mid-to-low price range products in the new series are performing well, while the high-end products are underperforming compared to expectations [1] - The company maintains a comprehensive product matrix that covers all mainstream price segments and will adjust its product operation strategies based on market and competitive dynamics [2] Group 3: Market Strategy - The company plans to deepen channel reforms and strengthen its market foundation while adjusting its competitive strategies in response to market conditions [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in strategic regions outside its home province, including North China, East China, and South China, based on local competition and business needs [2] - The company aims to enhance its channel resilience and depth by implementing a "downward" strategy to penetrate county and town markets, while also enriching e-commerce channels and innovating marketing methods [2]

口子窖（603198.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 基本盘稳固 静待改革红利释放 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，24 年全年公司实现营收/ 归母净利润 60.15/16.55 亿元，同比+0.89%/-3.83%；经计算，24Q4 实现营收 /归母净利润 16.53/3.45 亿元，同比+9.02%/-7.55%；25Q1 实现营收/归母净 利润 18.10/6.10 亿元，同比+2.42%/+3.59%。 ➢ 兼系列省内外招商汇量，省内精耕细作、省外聚焦核心市场。分产品看：酒 类主营 58.76 亿元，同比+0.46%，量增+2.76%，价增-2.24%。毛利率 74.33%， 同比-0.59pcts。其中：①高档白酒(年份系列/兼系列/小池窖等)24 年实现营收 56.81 亿元，同比+0.06%，量增+5.37%，价增-5.04%，吨价下移或系兼系列推 广期费用投放直接抵减收入所致。毛利率-0.22pcts 至 75.65%，在酒类主营业 务中占比-0.39pcts 至 96.69%。25Q1 高档白酒 17.28 亿元 ...