证监许可【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 2025年7月28日 星期一 摘要： 合成橡胶期货及期权自2023年7月28日在上海期货交易所上市，至今已走过两周年。借此机会，本文梳理合成橡胶期货（期权）上市两周年的交易情况与 行情走势，并分析合成橡胶期货月间结构与期权持仓分布特点。 回顾这两年，从上市意义来看，合成橡胶期货及期权功能发挥良好，并与期货市场已有的能源化工品种形成联动，更好地服务产业链上下游企业，以及为 广大投资者提供更多元化的投资选择。从市场运行情况来看，不难发现合成橡胶期货是一个极具"爆发力"的期货品种——短短两年时间里，合成橡胶期货 主力合约就有两次涨停和一次跌停行情，且单日成交量一度超越活跃品种天然橡胶。这表明上下游企业和投资者对其的参与和认可程度在不断提高。另 外，我们还观察到：从月间结构来看，合成橡胶期货以正基差与近月升水结构为主，这与生产企业的套保行为相关；从期权持仓分布来看，基于虚值期 权"买方成本低、卖方胜率高"的特点，虚值期权持仓量远高于实值期权。 一、上市意义 合成橡胶作为三大合成材料之一，用途极为广泛，在国民经济中起到重要作用，同时合成橡胶行业也是一个风险度较高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's "Stabilization Action" project for natural rubber production in China, highlighting its role in addressing industry pain points and supporting rubber farmers [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - China's natural rubber planting area is approximately 18 million mu, primarily located in Yunnan, Hainan, and Guangdong, with an annual production of around 900,000 tons, while the consumption is over 7 million tons, leading to an import dependency of over 80% [3][4]. - The economic benefits of rubber planting are insufficient, and harsh working conditions have led to farmers abandoning rubber cultivation, which poses a risk to the stability of the domestic rubber supply [3][4]. Group 2: Stabilization Action Project - The "Stabilization Action" project has provided nearly 27 million yuan in support over four years, covering a total rubber output of 40,000 tons and disbursing 27.71 million yuan in benefits to farmers [4][6]. - The project has significantly boosted farmers' confidence, with one farmer reporting an income of approximately 140,000 yuan in 2024, including over 8,000 yuan from the project, which helped fund their New Year purchases [4][6]. Group 3: Impact and Results - Since its inception in 2019, the project has conducted 76 initiatives, investing 140 million yuan, linking over 200,000 tons of natural rubber output, and achieving an average payout rate of 93% [7][8]. - The project utilizes a "OTC options + secondary settlement" model, allowing farmers to benefit from price fluctuations, with some projects achieving payout rates exceeding 100% in 2024 [7][8]. Group 4: Development of Rubber Derivatives Market - The penetration of futures tools in the rubber industry has increased, with upstream companies and traders fully utilizing these tools, while downstream tire manufacturers are beginning to engage more with futures for hedging [9][10]. - The Shanghai rubber futures market has become a global leader, with the introduction of synthetic rubber futures and options in 2023, enhancing the pricing mechanism of the rubber industry [9][10].