格隆汇1月5日丨海南橡胶(601118.SH)公布，根据《海南橡胶 2025 年橡胶收入保险项目保险协议》的约 定，2025年11月期间因橡胶价格波动造成收入损失，触发保险赔付条件。经查勘定损，确定保险赔付金 额为2158.07万元。公司近日已收到赔付款项，会计核算记入其他收益。 ...

根据《海南橡胶2025年橡胶收入保险项目保险协议》的约定，2025年9月、10月期间因橡胶价格波动造 成收入损失，触发保险赔付条件。经查勘定损，确定9月保险赔付金额1752.05万元，10月保险赔付金额 2050.62万元。公司近日已收到上述赔付款项，会计核算计入其他收益。 格隆汇12月31日丨海南橡胶(601118.SH)公布，根据《海南橡胶2025年橡胶树物化成本保险项目保险协 议》和《海南橡胶2025年橡胶树完全成本保险项目保险协议》的约定，受2025年第13号台风"剑鱼"影响 触发保险赔付条件，经查勘定损，确定保险赔付金额为3176.67万元，扣除保险公司此前已预付的部分 保险赔款500万元后，余款2676.67万元。公司近日已收到赔付余款，会计核算冲减营业外支出。 ...

格隆汇12月31日丨海南橡胶(601118.SH)公布，公司近日与中国太平洋财产保险股份有限公司海南分公 司、中国人民财产保险股份有限公司海南省分公司、中国人寿财产保险股份有限公司海南省分公司、阳 光财产保险股份有限公司海南省分公司签订《海南橡胶 2026 年橡胶收入保险项目保险协议》，五方本 着自愿、平等、互利和诚实信用的原则，经充分协商，决定就甲方将所拥有的天然橡胶树生产的天然橡 胶干胶向乙方投保橡胶收入保险及相关保险服务事宜达成一致意见。 ...

海南橡胶公告称，近日与四家保险公司签订《海南橡胶2026年橡胶收入保险项目保险协议》，保险期间 为2026年1月1日至12月31日，保险标的为天然橡胶干胶。保险金额16.15亿元，保险费率13.24%，保险 费2.14亿元。投保人承担20%即4276.52万元，中央财政补贴45%即9622.17万元，海南省财政补贴35%即 7483.91万元。该协议可减少胶价下跌影响，稳定主营，不过存在履约风险。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report is a meteorological analysis report on natural rubber futures. It points out that it is the end of the peak production season, and the weather conditions are generally good. However, there are still some potential impacts from climate phenomena such as La Nina and El Nino on the rubber production areas [1]. - The long - and medium - term climate dynamics show that the La Nina phenomenon has strengthened slightly month - on - month, and there is a possibility of transitioning to ENSO neutral and then to a weak El Nino phenomenon, which may increase weather disturbances in the production areas [1]. - Different natural rubber production areas around the world have different weather conditions, which will have different impacts on rubber production, including the progress of tapping, yield, and the risk of diseases and pests [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **Long - and medium - term climate dynamics**: - **ENSO**: The current Nino3.4 index is - 0.8 (- 0.1), and the La Nina phenomenon has strengthened slightly month - on - month. A weak La Nina phenomenon may last from December 2025 to February 2026, transition to ENSO neutral around January - March 2026, and there is a probability of over 45% of turning into a weak El Nino phenomenon from June to August 2026, which may increase weather disturbances in the production areas [1]. - **IOD**: The DMI index is - 0.60, increasing the probability of rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - **MJO**: It is expected to be in the second phase and will develop towards the third phase, which will affect the area around Indonesia and intensify weather changes [1]. - **Production area weather**: - **China**: Yunnan has stopped tapping. The significant cooling in early January and mostly sunny weather are conducive to the complete defoliation of rubber trees. Hainan is gradually cooling, with sporadic light rain recently. Most areas in the central and eastern parts have stopped tapping, and the western and southern parts are still tapping but are expected to stop completely in mid - January [2]. - **Indochina Peninsula**: In Thailand, rainfall has significantly decreased month - on - month, and the rubber in the main planting areas may increase production in the next few weeks but will decrease and stop tapping in mid - January. Vietnam has less rain, which has little impact on tapping. Cambodia's weather is similar to Vietnam's. Myanmar has less rain, and the tapping may be postponed [3]. - **Malay Archipelago**: In Indonesia, the La Nina phenomenon and IOD have strengthened, increasing the probability of rainfall. In December, precipitation in the whole area was high, which affected production. In Malaysia, the Malay Peninsula is in the peak rainy season, and continuous rainfall still affects tapping. In the Philippines, rainfall was less in December but increased recently, and future rainfall will decrease, which is beneficial to production [5]. - **South Asia**: In India, weather disturbances have weakened month - on - month. In Sri Lanka, the flood has subsided, but there is still rain in the central and northern parts [6]. - **West Africa**: In Cote d'Ivoire, rainfall has increased significantly year - on - year in December, and attention should be paid to soil humidity changes and drought risks in the future [6]. 2. Production Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of main natural rubber production areas, including the cumulative precipitation of the current month, the year - on - year change percentage, the cumulative precipitation of last week, the weekly difference, the forecast precipitation for this week, and the forecast precipitation for the next week [7]. 3. Production Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - **Tropical depression**: A tropical depression may form in the southwest of Indonesia, increasing rainfall in western Indonesia, but the impact is limited [10]. - **Flood disaster**: Thailand has less rain recently, and future rainfall is limited, which may increase production. The Malay Peninsula and Sumatra Island in Indonesia are in the peak rainy season, but the rainfall has decreased month - on - month, and the flood risk has decreased [11]. 4. Weather Conditions in Each Production Area - The report provides detailed weather maps and meteorological indicator tracking data for each production area, including daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly of each layer, temperature comparison, and average wind speed [20][40][63] Appendix - **Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas**: Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%. Thailand's planting area accounts for about 1/4, and Indonesia accounts for about 1/5. In terms of yield, Thailand accounts for more than 30% of the global total, Indonesia accounts for 15%, and Cote d'Ivoire accounts for more than 10% [196]. - **Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber and the Impact of Weather**: The phenological period of rubber trees includes five stages. New leaves are most sensitive to weather and natural disasters before maturity. Long - term rubber supply depends on planting area and tree - age structure, while short - term supply is more affected by weather factors. Different weather conditions have different impacts on rubber production during the tapping and non - tapping periods [205]. - **Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas**: The global natural rubber supply has obvious seasonality. The high - yield period is from September to November, and the low - yield period is from February to March. The tapping and non - tapping times of each production area vary due to latitude differences [207].

格隆汇12月29日丨海南橡胶(601118.SH)公布，根据《海南省收回农垦国有土地使用权社会保险费补贴 办法》的相关规定，公司近日收到琼西北供水工程（儋州段）等征地项目的社会保险费补贴 157,253,831.19元，会计核算计入营业外收入。 根据《海南省人民政府关于重新公布全省征地区片综合地价的通知》，公司近日收到110千伏兰洋(交 月)输变电工程项目等征地项目的青苗补偿款1,269,612.60元，征地协议约定的条件达成时确认为营业外 收入。 ...

近日 ，海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关运作，这一标志性举措标志着海南自贸港建设进入第一阶 段的关键实施期，开启了中国制度型开放的全新探索。封关并非封闭，而是通过"一线放开、二线管 住、岛内自由"的核心机制，打造高水平开放的"国家试验田"，为海南产业升级和经济高质量发展注 入强劲动力，也为区域内上市公司带来了广阔的发展机遇。 "三步走"战略关键节点，赋能自贸港发展 海南封关的核心目标是推动对外开放从1.0阶段的"要素流动型开放"向2.0阶段的"制度型开放"转 变，核心机制可概括为"一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由"十二字方针。这一机制并非将海南划为"境 内关外"，而是通过海关特殊监管模式，实现更高水平的精准开放与有效管控。 "一线放开"意味着海南与境外之间的货物、资金、人员往来将更加自由，绝大多数进口商品实现"零 关税"，符合条件的货物可径予放行，大幅降低通关成本。"二线管住"则聚焦海南与内地之间的监 管，精准防控零关税商品无序流入内地市场，同时保障人员往来如常，不影响正常的旅游、商务等活 动。这种差异化监管模式，为海南构建与国际高标准经贸规则接轨的营商环境奠定了基础。 从发展阶段来看，封关是海南自贸港"三步走"战 ...

非洲财经信息通讯社12月24日报道，作为全球第三大、非洲第一大天然橡胶生产国，科特迪瓦计划 进一步提高橡胶生产力。20日，科橡胶种植振兴生产者协会（APRHE-CI）宣布，科政府计划在未来十 年内新增50万公顷橡胶种植园。此举一方面是为满足日益增长的国际市场需求，印度私营咨询和市场研 究公司Mordor Intelligence预测，2025年全球天然橡胶市场规模将达到485亿美元，预计到2030年将以每 年4.58%的速度增长。另一方面，扩大橡胶种植面积也满足科政府开发生物质能等新兴领域的愿景，促 进相关产业发展。 （原标题：科特迪瓦计划未来十年新增50万公顷橡胶种植园） ...

研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 陈莉 期货研究报告|天然橡胶专题 2025-12-23 东南亚及非洲国家天然橡胶供应回顾 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 从业资格号：F03140168 梁琦 liangqi@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03148380 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 从天然橡胶主产国的新种植面积来看，2018 年已经迎来新种植面积的拐点，这对应的 是 2025 年天然橡胶新增产能增速开始出现下降。 泰国目前还不能判断出产量拐点的到来，主要因橡胶树的旺产周期较长，泰国北部仍 在产量释放周期中，但跟踪近几年的原料价格表现来看，泰国南部产量的弹性已经在 下降，预计未来将对国内浅色胶供应的收缩奠定基础。 东南亚国家的天然橡胶产量主要集中在泰国、印尼和越南，有增长潜力的国家和区域 主要集中在泰国北部、越南以及缅甸、老挝 ...

格隆汇12月16日丨海南橡胶(601118.SH)公布，根据《海南省人民政府关于重新公布全省征地区片综合 地价的通知》，公司近日收到海口羊山大道至定安母瑞山公路(定安段)电力设施迁改工程等征地项目的 青苗补偿款29.10万元，征地协议约定的条件达成时确认为营业外收入。 ...