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宝城期货橡胶早报-20251029
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 01:55
Report Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core View - The report anticipates that on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, both the Shanghai Rubber Futures 2601 contract and the Synthetic Rubber Futures 2512 contract will likely exhibit a weak and volatile trend [1][5][7]. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and intraday views are "volatile", and the medium - term view is "weakly volatile". The reference view is "weakly running" [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Positive policies were released after the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, and the China - US economic and trade talks sent positive signals, improving the macro - sentiment. The better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in September also supported the industry factors. However, as the previous positive factors were digested, the upward momentum of rubber prices weakened. On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a volatile and stable trend, with the price slightly rising 0.06% to 15,395 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and intraday views are "volatile", and the medium - term view is "weakly volatile". The reference view is "weakly running" [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of synthetic rubber continued to increase. In 2025, the planned new capacity of domestic butadiene was 980,000 tons, and the total capacity was expected to reach 7.677 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The rapid expansion of butadiene supply provided sufficient raw materials for synthetic rubber production but also exacerbated the over - supply pressure in the industry chain. Even during the period of the strongest demand expectation this year, synthetic rubber prices did not rebound significantly, indicating fundamental weakness. On Tuesday night, the 2512 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a weak downward trend, with the price dropping 2.62% to 10,585 yuan/ton [7].
宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-10-24-20251024
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2512 are expected to run strongly in the short - term and intraday, while showing a weakening trend in the medium - term [1][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating and weakening; Intraday: oscillating and strengthening; Overall reference view: running strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Recent Sino - US economic and trade consultations and positive policies from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee have improved the macro - sentiment. The rubber futures sector has undergone valuation repair. The supply - demand structure of the rubber market has slightly improved, with optimistic automobile production and sales data in China and typhoon interference on the supply side. On Thursday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed up 1.44% to 15,445 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating and weakening; Intraday: oscillating and strengthening; Overall reference view: running strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, positive macro - factors have led to valuation repair in the rubber futures sector. The supply - demand structure of the rubber market has slightly improved, and automobile production and sales data in China are optimistic. On Thursday night, the 2512 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed up 1.13% to 11,230 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Friday [7].