期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-10-29 品种晨会纪要 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供应压力存在，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 合成胶（BR） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2512 are expected to run strongly in the short - term and intraday, while showing a weakening trend in the medium - term [1][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating and weakening; Intraday: oscillating and strengthening; Overall reference view: running strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Recent Sino - US economic and trade consultations and positive policies from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee have improved the macro - sentiment. The rubber futures sector has undergone valuation repair. The supply - demand structure of the rubber market has slightly improved, with optimistic automobile production and sales data in China and typhoon interference on the supply side. On Thursday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed up 1.44% to 15,445 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating and weakening; Intraday: oscillating and strengthening; Overall reference view: running strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, positive macro - factors have led to valuation repair in the rubber futures sector. The supply - demand structure of the rubber market has slightly improved, and automobile production and sales data in China are optimistic. On Thursday night, the 2512 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed up 1.13% to 11,230 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Friday [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and intraday views of both Shanghai rubber 2601 and synthetic rubber 2511 are "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "declining", with a reference view of "weak operation" [1]. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is declining, and the overall reference view is weak operation [5]. - **Core Logic**: The US government shutdown due to the bipartisan deadlock has weakened the macro - factor. However, Typhoon "Maidoum" on October 5 may cause production cuts in natural rubber planting areas. The positive industrial factor temporarily outweighed the negative macro - factor, leading to a rebound in the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract on the first trading day after the holiday. The contract's moving average shows a bearish trend, and it is expected to oscillate weakly on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is declining, and the overall reference view is weak operation [6]. - **Core Logic**: The US government shutdown has weakened the macro - factor. During the National Day holiday, the international crude oil futures price first declined and then rose, with a cumulative decline of about 1%. The domestic crude oil futures price opened lower after the holiday. The slight rise of Shanghai rubber futures drove the synthetic rubber 2511 contract to rise slightly. It is expected to oscillate weakly on Friday [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2601 and synthetic rubber futures 2511 are expected to run weakly. The short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, while the intraday trends are volatile and weak [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.76% to 15,355 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weak trend on Friday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the dot - plot shows a slower - than - expected future interest - rate cut schedule. Also, due to the approaching National Day holiday, the operating rate of the domestic tire industry is gradually weakening, leading to weak demand in the rubber market [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Thursday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract maintained a weak downward trend, with the futures price closing sharply lower by 2.42% to 11,275 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Friday [6]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the Fed's interest - rate cut situation and the weakening operating rate of the domestic tire industry due to the approaching National Day holiday result in weak demand in the rubber market [6].