1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market for logs shows strong performance. In Jiangsu, due to low inventory, some specifications of spot logs are in short supply, and prices continue to rise. The 03 contract faces less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction of future shipping volume. However, the weak demand limits the upward adjustment space. Last week, the valuation of log futures was slightly repaired with a small rebound. Currently, the market sentiment is strong for consolidation, and in the short - term, it is advisable to participate in the range of 750 - 800 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Among log futures contracts on January 23rd, compared with January 22nd: the price of log 2601 remained unchanged at 772.5; log 2603 rose 7.5 to 776.0 with a 0.98% increase; log 2605 rose 2.5 to 788.5 with a 0.32% increase; log 2607 fell 0.5 to 799.0 with a - 0.06% decrease. The主力合约基差 decreased by 7.5 to - 36.0 [2] - Spot prices of various log types at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on January 23rd compared with January 22nd. For example, Rizhao Port's 3.9A small - sized radiata pine was 680.0, and Taicang Port's 4A medium - sized radiata pine was 770 [2] - The outer - market quotes of radiata pine 4 - meter medium - grade A (CFR price) and spruce 11.8 - meter (CFR price) remained unchanged on January 23rd compared with January 16th [2] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Estimation - On January 26th, compared with January 25th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.01 to 6.949, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 0.92 to 752.91 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - In December, compared with November, the port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 14.8 to 204.0 million cubic meters with a 7.82% increase, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand increased by 6 to 55 with a 12.24% increase [2] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 16th, compared with January 9th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs decreased by 12 to 257.00 million cubic meters with a - 4.46% decrease. In Shandong, it decreased by 4 to 192.00 million cubic meters with a - 2.04% decrease; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 7.4 to 41.08 million cubic meters with a - 15.18% decrease [2][3] 3.5 Demand (Weekly) - As of January 16th, compared with January 9th, the average daily log出库量 in China increased by 0.41 to 6.16 million cubic meters with a 7% increase. In Shandong, it increased by 0.45 to 3.24 million cubic meters with a 16% increase; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.07 to 2.28 million cubic meters with a - 3% decrease [3] 3.6 Arrival Forecast - From January 19th to January 25th, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 11, the same as last week with a 0% week - on - week increase. The total arrival volume was about 350,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 19,000 cubic meters from last week with a - 5% week - on - week decrease [3]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The General Administration of Customs of China has decided to lift the suspension on the import of American logs, effective November 10, 2025, based on an assessment of U.S. corrective measures [1]. Market Conditions - As of the week ending November 3, 2025, the inventory of coniferous logs at Chinese ports reached 2.88 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters week-on-week, indicating a cumulative inventory build-up [1]. - On November 7, the spot market prices for logs remained stable, with Shandong's 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs priced at 750 yuan per cubic meter and Jiangsu's 4-meter medium A radiata pine logs at 770 yuan per cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. Institutional Perspectives - CITIC Construction Investment Futures noted that the log market has returned to being driven by fundamentals after experiencing high volatility. Current valuations are at historical low levels, presenting some left-side layout value. However, the supply-demand balance remains weak, and short-term port pressure persists. Investors are advised to choose strategies based on their risk tolerance, with aggressive investors encouraged to take small positions for potential valuation recovery, while conservative investors should wait for signs of stabilization in the spot market [2]. - Guotou Anxin Futures reported that the futures prices are operating weakly. High external prices and weak domestic spot prices are increasing pressure on traders, with no significant increase in imports expected in the short term. However, port outflow remains above 60,000 cubic meters, providing some support for prices. Overall, low inventory levels are expected to support prices, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for operations [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The Shanghai Rubber 2601 contract is expected to run strongly with short - term and intraday oscillations and a medium - term weakening trend [1][5]. - The Synthetic Rubber 2512 contract is expected to run weakly with short - term, intraday, and medium - term oscillations [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints** - Short - term: Oscillation [1] - Medium - term: Oscillation and weakening [1][5] - Intraday: Oscillation and strengthening [1][5] - Reference view: Strong operation [1][5] - **Core Logic** - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies, improving the macro - sentiment, and the rubber futures sector had a valuation repair [5]. - The better - than - expected September domestic new car production and sales data in September supported the industrial factors and boosted the bulls' confidence [5]. - The positive signals from the China - US economic and trade talks over the weekend continued to improve the macro - sentiment [5]. - On the night session of Monday this week, the Shanghai Rubber 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and strengthening trend, with the futures price rising 0.13% to 15390 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints** - Short - term: Oscillation [1] - Medium - term: Oscillation and weakening [1][7] - Intraday: Oscillation and weakening [1][7] - Reference view: Weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic** - Although the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies and improved the macro - sentiment, the supply - demand fundamentals of synthetic rubber are still weak [7]. - The supply pressure of synthetic rubber continues to increase. In 2025, the planned new capacity of domestic butadiene is 980,000 tons, and the total capacity is expected to reach 7.677 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [7]. - On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price falling 1.13% to 10920 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2512 are expected to run strongly in the short - term and intraday, while showing a weakening trend in the medium - term [1][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating and weakening; Intraday: oscillating and strengthening; Overall reference view: running strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Recent Sino - US economic and trade consultations and positive policies from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee have improved the macro - sentiment. The rubber futures sector has undergone valuation repair. The supply - demand structure of the rubber market has slightly improved, with optimistic automobile production and sales data in China and typhoon interference on the supply side. On Thursday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed up 1.44% to 15,445 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating and weakening; Intraday: oscillating and strengthening; Overall reference view: running strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, positive macro - factors have led to valuation repair in the rubber futures sector. The supply - demand structure of the rubber market has slightly improved, and automobile production and sales data in China are optimistic. On Thursday night, the 2512 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed up 1.13% to 11,230 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Friday [7].