宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-23 品种晨会纪要 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区步入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，同时胶 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weak. The reference view is weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As domestic natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan are approaching the off - season, the supply of domestic full - latex is expected to decline. The downstream automobile production and sales data in the rubber market are optimistic. However, the macro - sentiment weakened due to the significantly worse - than - expected US September non - farm payrolls data released last weekend. The Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session last Friday, and are expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weak. The reference view is weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The recent macro - sentiment is okay, but the slight decline of domestic and international crude oil futures on Thursday night weakened the rebound momentum of synthetic rubber futures. The downstream automobile production and sales data in the rubber market are optimistic, and the synthetic rubber market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated". The macro - sentiment weakened due to the significantly worse - than - expected US September non - farm payrolls data released last weekend. The domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session last Friday, and are expected to maintain a weak trend on Monday [7].

Report Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core View - The report anticipates that on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, both the Shanghai Rubber Futures 2601 contract and the Synthetic Rubber Futures 2512 contract will likely exhibit a weak and volatile trend [1][5][7]. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and intraday views are "volatile", and the medium - term view is "weakly volatile". The reference view is "weakly running" [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Positive policies were released after the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, and the China - US economic and trade talks sent positive signals, improving the macro - sentiment. The better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in September also supported the industry factors. However, as the previous positive factors were digested, the upward momentum of rubber prices weakened. On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a volatile and stable trend, with the price slightly rising 0.06% to 15,395 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and intraday views are "volatile", and the medium - term view is "weakly volatile". The reference view is "weakly running" [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of synthetic rubber continued to increase. In 2025, the planned new capacity of domestic butadiene was 980,000 tons, and the total capacity was expected to reach 7.677 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The rapid expansion of butadiene supply provided sufficient raw materials for synthetic rubber production but also exacerbated the over - supply pressure in the industry chain. Even during the period of the strongest demand expectation this year, synthetic rubber prices did not rebound significantly, indicating fundamental weakness. On Tuesday night, the 2512 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a weak downward trend, with the price dropping 2.62% to 10,585 yuan/ton [7].