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【招银研究|固收产品月报】债市回调空间受限,配置可从短债开始(2025年3月)
招商银行研究· 2025-03-19 10:23
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in fixed income products and the bond market, highlighting the upward movement of bond yields and the implications for investment returns in various fixed income products [2][10][31]. Summary by Sections Review - In the past month, bond yields have risen significantly, leading to a decline in investment returns for fixed income products. The performance of pure bond funds and long-term bond funds has been particularly poor, while cash management products and high-grade interbank certificates of deposit have outperformed [3][8]. Fixed Income Product Performance - As of March 17, the one-month returns for various products were as follows: high-grade interbank certificate index at 0.12% (up from 0.08%), cash management at 0.11% (down from 0.12%), rights-bearing bond funds at -0.02% (up from -0.64%), short bond funds at -0.14% (down from -0.05%), and long-term bond funds at -0.65% (down from -0.02%) [3][9]. Bond Market Review - The bond market has been influenced by three main factors: economic growth, interbank liquidity, and credit growth. The overall sentiment is neutral to bearish, with rising bond yields, particularly in long-term bonds. The one-year interbank certificate rate fluctuated between 1.8% and 2.2%, closing at 1.98%, an increase of 18 basis points [10][12]. Market Outlook - Short-term expectations for interbank certificates suggest a downward trend in rates, while bond yields are anticipated to stabilize at high levels. The credit bond yields are expected to remain stable, with credit spreads potentially compressing further [28][30]. Investment Strategy - For investors focused on liquidity management, maintaining current cash product allocations is advisable, with a gradual shift towards stable low-volatility investments. For conservative investors, increasing exposure to pure bond products is recommended when 10-year government bonds yield above 2.0% [31][35]. Equity Market Insights - The equity market has shown resilience, with major indices experiencing upward movement. The consumption sector is expected to generate excess returns due to supportive policies, despite concerns over domestic demand [32][26].