（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间11月20日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨，原糖期货涨 0.14%报14.68美分/磅，棉花期货持平于63.78美分/磅，可可期货涨2.96%报5255.00美元/吨，咖啡期货涨 0.36%报376.20美分/磅。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on November 18, with fluctuations in various commodity prices [1] Group 1: Sugar Futures - Raw sugar futures decreased by 0.61%, closing at 14.71 cents per pound [1] Group 2: Cotton Futures - Cotton futures increased by 0.59%, closing at 64.44 cents per pound [1] Group 3: Cocoa Futures - Cocoa futures fell by 0.37%, closing at $5,416.00 per ton [1] Group 4: Coffee Futures - Coffee futures rose by 2.10%, closing at 384.50 cents per pound [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on November 17, with fluctuations in various commodity prices [1] Group 1: Sugar Market - Raw sugar futures decreased by 1.40%, closing at 14.75 cents per pound [1] Group 2: Cotton Market - Cotton futures experienced a slight increase of 0.12%, closing at 64.21 cents per pound [1] Group 3: Cocoa Market - Cocoa futures fell by 1.03%, ending at $5,401.00 per ton [1] Group 4: Coffee Market - Coffee futures rose by 1.03%, closing at 377.85 cents per pound [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a decline across all major contracts on November 13, with significant drops in various commodities [1] Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Raw sugar futures decreased by 0.62%, closing at 14.43 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures fell by 0.35%, ending at 64.58 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures experienced a decline of 2.57%, closing at $5,609 per ton [1] - Coffee futures dropped by 1.08%, finishing at 372.60 cents per pound [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a majority of contracts decline, with notable movements in sugar, cotton, cocoa, and coffee futures [1] Group 1: Futures Performance - Sugar futures increased by 2.25%, closing at 14.57 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.86%, closing at 64.82 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 3.12%, closing at $5744.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures dropped by 6.16%, closing at 374.70 cents per pound [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures closed mostly lower on November 12, 2023, with notable movements in various commodity prices [1] Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Raw sugar futures increased by 2.25%, closing at 14.57 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.86%, closing at 64.82 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 3.12%, closing at $5,744.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures dropped by 6.16%, closing at 374.70 cents per pound [1]

Core Insights - Starbucks has formed a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital to jointly operate its retail business in China, highlighting the competitive pressure from local brands like Luckin Coffee and Manner [2] - The coffee market is experiencing significant price pressures due to rising costs and aggressive pricing strategies from competitors, with the price of U.S. C-type coffee futures remaining high at around 400 cents per pound [2] Coffee Futures Market - Coffee futures have seen a price increase exceeding 70% since January 2022, with prices reaching a historical high of 437.95 cents per pound on October 23, 2023 [3][4] - The price of Arabica coffee futures is projected to exceed 430 cents per pound by February 2025, reflecting a 118.57% increase over the past year [4] - Factors contributing to the price surge include climate change affecting global production and speculative trading, particularly due to adverse weather conditions in Brazil [4][5] Impact on Coffee Farmers - Coffee farmers in Yunnan have benefited from rising coffee prices, with some reporting annual sales of around 800,000 yuan due to partnerships with large companies like Starbucks and the increase in coffee futures prices [8][10] - The price of fresh coffee fruit in Yunnan has risen from 3.5 to 7 yuan per kilogram, reaching historical highs, which has improved the economic viability of coffee farming [10] Retail Market Dynamics - The Chinese coffee market is projected to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, but competition is intensifying with local brands outpacing international ones in terms of store count and revenue [12] - The aggressive pricing strategies, such as 9 yuan coffee, are forcing retailers to keep prices low despite rising costs, leading to operational challenges [12][14] - Retailers are adapting by reducing labor costs and store sizes, with many opting for takeaway models to maintain profitability amid rising raw material costs [13][14]

Core Insights - Coffee futures prices have surged significantly, with a peak of 437.95 cents per pound on October 23, marking a historical high and a year-on-year increase of 118.57% [1][2] - The rise in coffee prices is attributed to both market dynamics and unexpected weather impacts due to climate change, affecting global production [2] - The competitive landscape in the coffee retail sector is intense, with local brands outpacing international ones in store count and revenue, leading to pricing pressures [2][3] Price Trends - Coffee futures reached 336.4 cents per pound on December 10, 2022, up from 188.5 cents per pound on January 2, 2022, reflecting a cumulative increase of over 70% [1] - As of November 8, 2023, coffee futures were reported at 388.38 cents per pound, with a recent increase of 2.46% [1] - The ICE Arabica coffee futures saw a cumulative increase of 4.94% in the week ending November 7, 2023, contrasting with declines in sugar futures [1] Retail Challenges - Coffee retailers face a dilemma as rising raw material costs do not translate into higher retail prices due to fierce competition and consumer price sensitivity [3] - Many coffee shops are resorting to cost-cutting measures, such as reducing staff and store sizes, while increasing online sales to cope with high coffee bean prices [3] - The competitive pressure has led to a focus on new product offerings and lower prices, complicating the ability of retailers to pass on costs to consumers [3]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks has formed a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital to jointly operate its retail business in China, amidst increasing competition and price wars in the coffee market [3][4]. Coffee Market Dynamics - The coffee futures prices have surged significantly, with prices reaching historical highs, impacting both producers and retailers. As of November 8, 2023, the price of U.S. coffee futures was reported at 388.38 cents per pound, reflecting a 2.46% increase [4][5]. - Coffee futures prices have outpaced gold, with a notable increase from 188.5 cents per pound at the beginning of 2022 to a peak of 437.95 cents per pound in October 2023, marking a rise of over 70% [4][5]. - The USDA projects a decline in global Arabica coffee production, estimating a drop of 47,000 tons (-7.5%) from the historical peak of 6.3 million tons in the 2018/2019 season [5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The increase in coffee prices is attributed to both market dynamics and unexpected weather conditions affecting production, particularly in Brazil, a major coffee producer [5][6]. - The demand for freshly brewed coffee has been rising, creating a structural imbalance in the Arabica coffee market, where production is declining while demand is increasing [5][6]. Impact on Coffee Farmers - Coffee farmers in Yunnan have seen significant income growth due to rising coffee prices and partnerships with large companies like Starbucks. For instance, one farmer reported an annual sales increase to 800,000 yuan, attributed to both rising futures prices and corporate partnerships [9][11]. - The price of fresh coffee fruit in Yunnan has surged from 3.5 to 7 yuan per kilogram, reaching historical highs, which has revitalized local coffee cultivation [11]. Retail Sector Challenges - The intense competition in the coffee market, with brands like Luckin Coffee and Manner expanding rapidly, has led to a price war, making it difficult for retailers to raise prices despite rising costs from coffee futures [14][15]. - Retailers are adopting cost-cutting measures, such as reducing staff and store sizes, to cope with increased raw material costs while trying to maintain competitive pricing [15][16]. - The ongoing price increases in coffee futures pose operational challenges for coffee retailers, who must balance the need to offer low prices to attract customers with the rising costs of high-quality coffee beans [16].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in coffee futures prices presents opportunities for coffee farmers but poses challenges for the retail sector, particularly in the context of intense market competition and price wars [1][11]. Group 1: Coffee Futures Market - Coffee futures prices have seen significant increases, with a rise of over 70% from 188.5 cents/pound on January 2 to 336.4 cents/pound on December 10 of the previous year, surpassing gold price increases during the same period [3]. - As of November 8, coffee futures were reported at 388.38 cents/pound, reflecting a 2.46% increase, while the ICE Arabica coffee futures rose by 4.94% in the week ending November 7 [3]. - Factors contributing to the price surge include climate change affecting global production and unexpected weather events in major producing countries like Brazil, which has seen frost and drought conditions impacting yields [4][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The USDA projects that global Arabica coffee production will be 470,000 tons lower than the historical peak of 6.3 million tons in the 2018/2019 season, indicating a 7.5% decline [4]. - The demand for freshly brewed coffee has been increasing, creating a structural imbalance in the Arabica coffee market, where production is declining while demand is rising [4]. - The price increase has also been influenced by speculative trading and stockpiling by traders in response to supply concerns [4]. Group 3: Impact on Coffee Farmers - Coffee farmers in Yunnan, such as Cai Qing and Yu Zuguo, have experienced significant income growth due to rising coffee prices, with Cai's annual sales reaching 800,000 yuan and production increasing from 7 bags to 160 tons [7][8]. - The price of fresh coffee cherries in Yunnan has surged from 3.5-4.3 yuan/kg to around 7 yuan/kg, with market acquisition prices exceeding 60 yuan/kg, alleviating previous challenges faced by farmers [8][9]. - The increase in coffee futures prices has led to a renewed interest in coffee cultivation, with Yunnan's coffee planting area growing by 4% in 2024 [9]. Group 4: Retail Sector Challenges - The competitive landscape in the coffee retail market is intensifying, with local brands like Luckin Coffee and Manner rapidly expanding and offering lower-priced products, making it difficult for established brands like Starbucks to raise prices [11][12]. - Retailers are facing pressure to maintain low prices despite rising costs, leading to cost-cutting measures such as reducing staff and store sizes, and shifting towards online sales [12][13]. - The ongoing price competition and the need to attract customers with lower prices are testing the operational capabilities and financial strength of coffee retailers [13].