芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价15日全线上涨。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳4.05美元，比前一交易日上涨8 美分，涨幅为2.01%；小麦12月合约收于每蒲式耳5.27美元，比前一交易日上涨2.5美分，涨幅为 0.48%；大豆11月合约收于每蒲式耳10.43美元，比前一交易日上涨14美分，涨幅为1.36%。 美国农业部8月份作物报告以及7月高压榨率提振了本周大豆市场。市场分析机构认为，若再上涨15-20 美分，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期价将接近超买水平。玉米、小麦涨势将因北半球现货供应量 巨大而受到挑战。 美国国家大豆协会（NOPA）成员7月份大豆压榨量为1.957亿磅，比预期高出400万磅，创当月最高纪 录，比去年同期增加1300万磅。截至7月31日，豆油库存总计13.8亿磅，比6月份增加1200万磅。协会成 员累计压榨量同比增长4.7%。 天气预报显示，美国明尼苏达州和威斯康星州未来5天将迎来强降雨，中部地区未来6-10天天气干燥。8 月20日之后天气将转凉。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国7月大豆压榨量超预期，大豆期价上涨，玉米、小麦期价紧随其后。当天市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent performance of CBOT corn, wheat, and soybean futures, indicating a general upward trend in commodity prices, with specific percentage increases noted for each crop [1]. Group 1: Commodity Performance - CBOT corn futures increased by 3.82%, closing at $4.28 per bushel, showing a sustained upward movement [1]. - CBOT wheat futures rose by 0.37%, ending at $5.47 per bushel, demonstrating a U-shaped reversal pattern [1]. - CBOT soybean futures saw a rise of 2.76%, closing at $10.35 per bushel, with a notable increase from Wednesday to Friday [1]. Group 2: Related Futures - Soymeal futures increased by 1.83%, reflecting a positive trend in the soybean market [1]. - Soybean oil futures experienced a rise of 3.60%, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment in the agricultural commodities sector [1].

Core Viewpoint - CBOT soybean futures have turned lower due to the USDA data indicating an increase in U.S. inventories [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The USDA report shows a rise in U.S. soybean stocks, which has negatively affected market sentiment and led to a decline in futures prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, trade policies, and inventory levels. Different products have different trends, with some expected to be range - bound, others to decline in the short - term, and some to be affected by potential weather - driven price fluctuations [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category [Soybean (Domestic and Imported)] - Domestic soybeans are oscillating at a low level. A domestic soybean bidding and procurement event will be held tomorrow, and the actual transaction situation should be monitored. In the short - term, the weather in Northeast China is favorable for soybean growth. Imported soybeans will have sufficient supply due to a large amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving in China. The mid - term price of US soybeans will be affected by weather and is expected to be oscillating upward. Domestic soybeans are also entering the planting and growing season, and weather is expected to be the main factor driving price fluctuations [2]. [Soybean and Soybean Meal] - Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating flat with insufficient upward momentum. The domestic spot price of soybean meal has been falling significantly since late April. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August. With more international soybeans arriving, the supply is becoming more abundant. Oil mills are maintaining a high operating rate, and soybean meal inventory is rising from a low level. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade. In the short - term, a bearish view is maintained, and the market lacks continuous driving force. Investors should pay attention to the potential upward driving force brought by weather changes from June to August [3]. [Soybean Oil and Palm Oil] - The market focus is on the potential easing of agricultural policies between China and Canada. Soybean oil and palm oil are mainly reducing positions and falling passively following rapeseed oil. The increase in the oil - meal ratio has slowed down. The short - term weather in the US is generally favorable for soybean crops. In the mid - term, overseas soybeans will be driven by weather, and domestic oil - meal futures are expected to fluctuate with US soybean prices. Domestic soybean spot will face the pressure of a large amount of arrivals, and the arrival of 24 - degree palm oil in China will also increase month - on - month. Overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. Overall, soybean and palm oil are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [4]. [Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil] - Rapeseed - related futures are generally falling today. The main contract of rapeseed oil is increasing positions and falling. The focus is on the market's expectation of the easing of Sino - Canadian rapeseed - related trade relations. The key for domestic rapeseed products lies in the marginal change of trade policies. If the Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade relationship eases, the supply of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil will become more abundant. Due to seasonal differences in demand, rapeseed oil may face more significant pressure. The price of Canadian rapeseed is also affected by factors such as the US - Canada rapeseed oil biodiesel policy and new - crop area weather, and its price center is expected to rise slowly. In general, domestic rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure [6]. [Corn] - Corn futures are rebounding with position reduction following the overall commodity market. The spot price of corn in Northeast China is generally stable. The number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has increased slightly. With the new wheat harvest, the price difference between new - season wheat and corn is narrowing, and some feed enterprises in high - priced corn areas are gradually substituting. The overall demand is weak, the receiving capacity of deep - processing enterprises is weakening, and the operating rate is decreasing. Feed enterprises have rigid demand but are highly cautious. After the transfer of domestic grain ownership, the market's circulating grain sources are still concentrated in the trading sector. With the listing of new wheat, more corn will be put into the market. It is recommended that investors be cautious about going long, and the market is expected to be oscillating weakly [7]. [Pork] - Pork futures are oscillating weakly. The spot price of pork is generally falling across the country. As the number of newborn piglets continues to recover, the overall supply of pork will increase in the future. Group pig - raising enterprises need to reduce the weight of pigs for sale, and the future sales rhythm is expected to accelerate, further increasing the supply pressure. In the short - term, the spot price still has room to fall. In the mid - term, the policy aims to stabilize pork prices, and measures such as reducing pig weight, reducing secondary fattening, and stabilizing sow production capacity will reduce the long - term supply pressure. It is necessary to observe whether group enterprises will take actions to reduce pig weight [8]. [Eggs] - The main contract of egg futures has reached a new low today, and the near - month contract is performing weakly. The plum - rain season is having a negative impact on the near - month contract, while the spot price of eggs is stable today. The inventory of laying hens in production continued to increase in May, and the chicks replenished earlier are still in the production - capacity release stage. The egg - laying chicken farming industry has entered the loss zone, and the number of old hens being culled has increased. However, there is no panic - selling situation yet. In June, the plum - rain season will start in the South, and the seasonal off - peak demand period is coming. At the same time, due to the large - scale chick replenishment in the past, the production capacity is still being released. It is expected that the egg price still has a risk of further decline. Attention should be paid to the culling of old hens, weather factors, and feed prices [9].

Core Insights - The Bloomberg Grain Index has increased by 2.61% this week, closing at 31.4047 points on Friday, May 23, with a continuous rise from May 20 to 21 and slight fluctuations at high levels on May 22 to 23 [1] Summary by Category Corn Market - CBOT corn futures have risen by 3.49%, reaching $4.59 per bushel, with a consistent increase from May 19 to 22 and a slight decline on May 23 [1] Wheat Market - CBOT wheat futures have increased by 3.52%, closing at $5.4350 per bushel, with gains observed on May 20 to 21 and a minor retreat on May 22 to 23 [1] Soybean Market - CBOT soybean futures have seen a rise of 1.02%, closing at $10.6075 per bushel, while soybean meal futures increased by 1.44% and soybean oil futures rose by 0.59% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. The oil and fat sectors are experiencing a significant decline, the live pig market has tumbled, and the egg market is also under pressure due to high inventories. On the other hand, the cotton market is fluctuating at a high level, and the sugar market is experiencing a decline and consolidation. The soybean meal market is rising in a volatile manner, and the soybean market is continuing to move sideways after a pullback. The corn market is falling in a volatile manner, the apple market is oscillating at a low level, and the trend remains downward [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - The entire oil and fat sector has dropped significantly. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, the market lacks confidence in the demand for US soybean oil in biofuels. The production and inventory of palm oil in producing areas have surged, bringing seasonal supply pressure. Domestic soybean oil is also under pressure from the expected increase in supply due to the rising operating rate of oil mills. The live pig market has tumbled due to high inventories at the breeding end, sufficient supply of standard and fat pigs, and weak downstream demand. The egg market has also declined under the pressure of high inventories [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main palm oil contract 2509 has dropped significantly, giving back most of the previous day's gains. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, the market is worried that the demand for US soybean oil in biofuels will fall short of expectations, and bullish sentiment has cooled rapidly. The monthly report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) shows that the production and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia increased sharply in April, suppressing the upward space of Malaysian palm oil prices. The Dalian palm oil main contract 2509 closed with a long negative line, falling below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 8018 and resistance at 8200 [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The main soybean oil contract 2509 has dropped significantly, giving back all of the previous day's gains. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, market sentiment has reversed, causing the price to fall. The high - level decline of crude oil futures prices has led to concerns that the demand for US soybean oil in biofuels will fall short of expectations. In the domestic market, imported soybeans have arrived at ports in a concentrated manner, and the operating rate of oil mills has increased, leading to an expected increase in soybean oil supply. The main soybean oil contract 2509 has reversed and tumbled, breaking below most moving averages, indicating a weakening technical pattern. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 7744 and resistance at 7808 [3]. 3.2.3 Live Pig - The live pig contract 2509 has tumbled, giving back all of the previous day's gains and hitting a new low, opening up downward space. At the breeding end, the inventory of live pigs is at a high level, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased in May, and the slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises has increased month - on - month. In addition, the price difference between standard and fat pigs has narrowed or even inverted, and farms are actively selling large - weight pigs, increasing the supply pressure. On the demand side, after the May Day holiday, the purchase and sale of pork has declined, catering and tourism consumption has cooled down, and residents mainly focus on household consumption. With sufficient substitutes, mainstream slaughterhouses lack an increase in orders, and demand support is insufficient. The Dalian live pig main contract 2509 has reversed and tumbled, with sharp daily fluctuations. The price has broken through the moving average system and the previous fluctuation range, hitting a new low, and the downward space may be opened, indicating a weakening technical pattern. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 13650 and resistance at 13890 [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton - The main cotton contract 2509 has fluctuated narrowly at a high level after a strong upward movement, undergoing technical correction, and the upward trend remains unchanged. After the high - level talks between China and the US on economy and trade, bilateral tariffs have been significantly reduced, exceeding market expectations. Some orders may be restarted during the buffer period, boosting market sentiment. Terminal enterprises in Zhengzhou have successively shipped orders that were suspended from processing or shipping before the release of equal tariffs, alleviating inventory pressure. Coupled with domestic macro - level positives, cotton prices are supported. The main cotton futures contract 2509 has fluctuated narrowly at a high level after a strong upward movement, undergoing technical correction. The price is still fluctuating above the medium - term moving average, and the MACD red column is expanding, indicating a strong technical pattern. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 13275 and resistance at 13500 [7][9]. 3.2.5 Sugar - The main sugar contract 2509 has declined and oscillated, closing with a small negative line with a lower shadow, and the trend is not yet clear. Overseas raw sugar futures prices have fallen from high levels as the market focuses on the future production growth in Brazil. The domestic window for importing sugar outside the quota has opened, increasing the pressure of future sugar arrivals at ports. However, it will take time for the imported sugar to arrive. Currently, the domestic market still relies on domestic sugar supply. The sugar sales rate in April was relatively fast, and with the approaching of the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has a demand for stocking up, supporting sugar prices. The main sugar contract 2509 has declined and oscillated, with limited decline. The strategy can be short - term trading for now, with support at 5873 and resistance at 5904 [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal - The main soybean meal contract 2509 has oscillated and closed with a positive line, driven by the strength of US soybeans. The domestic spot price of soybean meal has varied. The low operating rate in some areas has supported a small rebound in the soybean meal price. However, imported soybeans have arrived at ports in a concentrated manner, and the overall operating rate of national oil mills has rebounded, with a strong expectation of sufficient soybean meal supply. Currently, the soybean meal price is close to the cost price of oil mills, and the oil mills' prices are relatively firm. The main soybean meal contract 2509 has closed with two consecutive positive lines, and the price has stood above the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, indicating a warming technical pattern. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2906 and resistance at 2950 [12]. 3.2.7 Soybean - The main soybean contract 2507 has risen and then fallen, closing with a small negative line with an upper shadow, showing an oscillating and continuously sideways movement. There is little remaining soybeans at the grass - roots level, and the supply of soybeans in domestic producing areas is limited. Farmers are busy with spring plowing, and overall trading is light. The purchase and sales pattern in the sales areas is also stable, with little price change. Imported soybeans have arrived at ports in a concentrated manner, and the supply is gradually increasing. Oil mills' demand for domestic soybeans has decreased. The downstream soybean product industry has entered the off - season, and downstream demand is weak. The main soybean contract 2507 has risen and then fallen, encountering resistance in the upward movement, and the price has returned to the short - term sideways range. The strategy is to close short positions and wait for opportunities, with support at 4132 and resistance at 4196 [15]. 3.2.8 Corn - The main corn contract 2507 has oscillated and closed with a negative line, giving back the previous day's rebound, showing a weakening technical pattern and facing further adjustment pressure. The grass - roots grain sales progress is approaching the end, and last week's sales progress remained stable. Corn starch processing enterprises are making losses, and the operating rate has declined. The prices of wheat and corn are close, and during the upcoming concentrated listing period of wheat, the substitution pressure may increase. After the corn price reached a high level, downstream feed enterprises have low acceptance and limited purchases. The Dalian main corn contract 2507 has declined, testing the support of the 20 - day moving average again, and the technical pattern shows weakening pressure. The strategy can be short - term trading for now, with support at 2326 and resistance at 2356 [16][18]. 3.2.9 Egg - The main egg contract 2506 has dropped significantly, approaching the previous low, and the downward space may be opened. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, with 1.329 billion in April, a month - on - month increase of 11 million. The number of newly - laid hens has increased, and there is an expectation of a continued increase in inventory. The supply of eggs is sufficient. The terminal market has limited acceptance of high - priced eggs, the sales pace has slowed down, and inventory digestion is slow. Egg prices are weakening steadily. With the rising temperature, eggs are not easy to store, and the trading link may accelerate the shipment. The demand side is seasonally weakening, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The main egg contract 2506 has dropped significantly, falling far from the moving average, and may open the downward space, showing a weak technical pattern. The strategy is to continue to short, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [19]. 3.2.10 Apple - The main apple contract 2510 has oscillated narrowly at a low level, closing with a small positive line with an upper shadow, and the downward trend remains unchanged. In the apple - producing areas, farmers are busy with farm work, the cold - storage packaging and shipping have decreased, the sales pace is average, and the market in the producing areas is stable. Currently, competing melons and fruits are gradually coming to the market, increasing alternative consumption and impacting the demand for apples, suppressing the apple price. The main apple contract 2510 has oscillated at a low level, and the price is fluctuating near the previous low. The MACD green column continues to expand, showing a weak technical pattern. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 7688 and resistance at 7770 [21].

Core Points - The Chicago futures market saw a decline in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on May 5, with corn down 3.14%, wheat down 2.16%, and soybeans down 1.18% [1] - Favorable weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest are expected to facilitate rapid spring planting, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [1][2] - The USDA reported significant increases in cumulative export inspection volumes for corn (29%), soybeans (11%), and wheat (14%) compared to the previous year [1] Group 1 - On May 5, the most active July corn contract closed at $4.54 per bushel, down 14.75 cents; July wheat at $5.31 per bushel, down 11.75 cents; and July soybeans at $10.46 per bushel, down 12.5 cents [1] - The USDA's export inspection report indicated that for the week ending May 1, corn export inspections totaled 63.317 million bushels, wheat 11.4 million bushels, and soybeans 11.9 million bushels [1] - IKAR raised its forecast for Russia's wheat production in 2025 from 82.5 million tons to 83.8 million tons [1]