周二(1月27日)，现货黄金价格暴涨逾3%，延续破纪录涨势，反映持续的经济和地缘政治不确定性，正 促使投资者持续抢进这种避险金属。此外，美国总统特朗普的一番言论加剧美元的崩跌态势，刺激金价 进一步上涨。 现货黄金周二收盘暴涨173.19美元，涨幅3.46%，报5181.10美元/盎司。 追踪美元兑六种货币表现的美元指数(DXY)周二收盘暴跌1.32%，报95.76。 FXStreet分析师Christian Borjon Valencia指出，受贸易战引发的地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及可能干预外汇 市场以提振日元的威胁推动，黄金价格周二连续第个交易日上涨。美国和韩国贸易战的升级正波及金融 市场，推高黄金的吸引力。美国总统特朗普威胁对韩国商品加征25%的关税，推动美元走软，贵金属价 格飙升。 特朗普一席话加剧美元崩跌走势 美国总统特朗普周二表示，他不认为美元"跌得太多"，并称美元"表现很棒"、汇率本就会波动。市场对 其言论反应剧烈。 特朗普当天在爱荷华州对记者表示，当被问及美元走弱、并将全球最重要储备货币拖至近四年低位时， 他回应称："不，我认为很好……看看我们做的生意，美元表现得很好。" 他还补充称，希望美元"回 ...

CME称，此项调整自周二收盘后生效，是"在市场波动后进行的一项常规审查，以确保充足的抵押品覆 盖"。 贵金属在最近几个季度经历了非同寻常的上涨行情，涨势和价格波动一直延续至新年。在最近一轮上涨 中，黄金和白银价格均在周一的交易中飙升至历史新高，其中白银价格在2026年迄今已上涨约五分之 一。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来源：金十数据 芝商所集团（CME Group）宣布，在贵金属价格飙升且交易波动加剧后，将改变黄金、白银、铂金和钯 金期货的保证金设定方式。 CME在一份通知中表示，新的方法将基于所谓"名义价值"的百分比来设定保证金。此前，保证金是基 于一个固定的美元金额设定的。 华侨银行（Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp．）策略师Christopher Wong表示，短期内，保证金规则的改 变"可能会暂时对贵金属构成压力"。 他补充道："基于百分比的方法直观上更能捕捉所需的保证金，这意味着无需频繁调整。"但他也表示， 如果波动性超过历史水平，或出现不可预见的情况，"他们仍可能提高该百分比。" 随着贵金属涨势加速、投机交易活动量上升以及波动性激 ...

Core Insights - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced a change in margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts, shifting from fixed amounts to a percentage of the contract's nominal value [1] Group 1: Margin Changes - The margin rate for non-high-risk portfolio (Non-HRP) gold contracts will be adjusted to approximately 5% of the nominal value [1] - The margin rate for silver contracts will be set at approximately 9% of the nominal value [1] - These changes will take effect after the market closes on January 13 [1] Group 2: Specific Contract Details - For 1 Ounce Gold Futures (10Z), the current initial margin for Non-HRP is USD 240, with a new rate of 5% [2] - For high-risk portfolio (HRP) gold contracts, the current initial margin is USD 264, with a new rate of 5.5% [2] - The margin rates for subsequent months (up to month 7) will remain consistent at 5% for Non-HRP and 5.5% for HRP [2]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, continue their bullish trend in the first full trading week of 2026, despite increased volatility and downward pressure on prices due to specific market factors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold and silver futures prices have both seen cumulative increases, indicating a continuation of the strong performance observed in 2025 [1] - Volatility in the precious metals market has noticeably intensified, particularly for silver, which is expected to face ongoing high volatility and uncertainty compared to gold [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Pressure - The Bloomberg Commodity Index initiated its annual rebalancing this week, significantly reducing the weight of precious metals, which analysts believe will trigger passive liquidation by index-tracking funds, adding to profit-taking pressure on gold and silver [1] - The CME Group has raised the margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures for the third time in the past month, with silver's margin increasing by 28.6%. Such substantial margin hikes typically curb high-leverage and speculative trading [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the short-term downward pressures, multiple financial institutions anticipate that both precious and industrial metal prices will have room for growth throughout the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant adjustments in precious metals due to the margin requirements set by CME Group, highlighting the impact on global asset allocation strategies [2] Group 1: Market Adjustments - Precious metals have experienced substantial price corrections following the announcement of increased margin requirements by CME, indicating heightened volatility in the market [2] - The adjustments in margin requirements are expected to influence trading behaviors and investment strategies among market participants [2] Group 2: Global Asset Allocation - The article emphasizes the importance of reevaluating global asset allocation in light of the recent changes in the precious metals market [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider the implications of these adjustments on their portfolios, particularly in relation to risk management and diversification strategies [2]

Market Overview - The significant drop in precious metals was driven by the Federal Reserve's internal disagreements on interest rate cuts for 2026 and the CME's increase in futures margin requirements[3] - Gold prices fell by 4.79% during the week, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.19%, an increase of 5 basis points[3][15] Capital Flows - Domestic capital inflow into the Chinese stock market was $4.99 million, while foreign capital outflow amounted to $0.65 million in the past week[3] - Global funds saw inflows into money market funds, with U.S. equity markets receiving $11.6 million in inflows[20] Valuation Metrics - The A-share equity risk premium (ERP) slightly decreased but remains at a historically neutral level, with the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation at the 87.8 percentile over the past decade[3][19] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the Shanghai Composite Index increased from 92% to 94%[3] Risk Sentiment - The VIX index for U.S. stocks showed a slight decrease, indicating a marginally improved risk sentiment, while the Chinese options market displayed increasing divergence in capital positioning[3][19] - The S&P 500 closed at 6858, below the 20-day moving average, with an implied volatility trend on the rise[3] Economic Data - The U.S. unemployment claims significantly dropped, indicating a potential cooling in the economy, while inflation expectations for the U.S. are trending downward[3][19] - The probability of maintaining the current interest rate range of 3.5%-3.75% increased to 83.40% as of January 3, 2026, up from 82.30% the previous week[3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the discussion is on the silver market, particularly the recent price surge and historical context related to silver prices during financial crises and speculative activities [1][5][15]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Surge**: Silver prices have doubled this year, showing a significant increase compared to 2023, reminiscent of past price spikes [1]. - **Historical Context**: The price of silver rose by 500% from $8.50 to $50.00 during the 2008 financial crisis, driven by excessive monetary policy and speculative behavior [5]. - **Monetary Policy Impact**: The Federal Reserve's actions, including lowering interest rates to zero and implementing quantitative easing, contributed to the price increase of silver as it became a hedge against extreme monetary policies [5][9]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The silver market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with industrial demand increasing significantly while supply remains constrained [7][16]. - **Leverage and Speculation**: The use of leverage through futures and options has significantly increased demand for silver, leading to price volatility [7][9][13]. - **CME's Role**: The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has previously raised margin requirements, which has historically led to sharp declines in silver prices, indicating a potential risk for current investors [7][20]. Additional Important Content - **Historical Speculative Events**: The Hunt brothers' attempt to corner the silver market in the 1970s led to significant price manipulation and subsequent regulatory actions, highlighting the risks associated with speculative trading [10][11][13]. - **Current Market Conditions**: The current environment mirrors past conditions where monetary and fiscal policies are pushing investors towards precious metals as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [15][16]. - **Valuation Metrics**: Investors often use silver-to-gold and silver-to-oil ratios to assess silver's valuation, which are currently indicating potential for significant price movements [18]. - **Risk of Market Correction**: There is a belief that the current bullish trend in silver may end similarly to past trends, with potential for a sharp market correction due to high leverage and regulatory changes [22]. Conclusion - Investors are advised to be cautious given the historical precedents of volatility in the silver market, particularly in light of leverage and regulatory actions that could impact market dynamics [22].

Core Insights - The recent technical failure at CME Group's Globex electronic trading platform lasted approximately 10 hours, significantly longer than a similar incident in 2019, highlighting the platform's critical role in global financial markets [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Trading - The outage affected trading across multiple financial markets in Asia and Europe, with the Globex futures and options market, which accounts for 90% of CME's trading volume, experiencing delays [1]. - Despite the eventual resumption of trading at 8:30 AM ET, many markets continued to see low trading volumes, particularly in Treasury futures and options linked to overnight financing rates [1]. - The failure raised concerns among traders about the impact on month-end operations, although the anticipated $6 billion inflow into equities did not significantly affect market stability [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The technical issues led to abnormal widening of bid-ask spreads in Treasury futures, with 20-year futures showing a spread of 11 ticks and 30-year futures showing a spread of 7 ticks [2]. - Bloomberg's WIRP data indicated a significant deviation in the pricing of December rate cuts, with overnight index swaps and Eurodollar futures showing probabilities of -88% and -83%, respectively, which is unusual compared to historical norms [2]. - As market order was restored by 11 AM ET, the bond yield curve exhibited a "bear steepener" trend, indicating a rise in yields [2].

Group 1 - U.S. stock markets experienced a trading halt due to a cooling issue at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is the largest exchange operator globally by market value [1] - The trading session was already shortened, with stock markets set to close at 1 p.m. ET and bond markets at 2 p.m. ET [1] - Merck, a major player in the pharmaceutical industry, is showing strong performance as it breaks past its latest buy point amid ongoing market volatility [2] Group 2 - CME Group Class A has received an upgrade in its relative strength rating, reaching a benchmark of over 80 [4] - As trading volatility decreases, exchanges are facing challenges, with Cboe being downgraded [4] - The overall market has seen support levels lost across all sectors, with notable mentions including Netflix, ADMA, and CME [4]

Core Viewpoint - Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) experienced a pre-market drop of over 2%, trading at $274.73 due to cooling issues at the CyrusOne data center, which led to the suspension of real-time trading in commodity futures and options [1] Group 1 - The cooling problem at the CyrusOne data center is impacting trading operations at CME [1] - Support teams are working to resolve the cooling issue as quickly as possible [1] - Multiple contracts, including crude oil and palm oil, were affected during the Asian early trading session [1]