2026 年 02 月 26 日 香港交易所（00388.HK） 买入（维持评级） 港股公司点评 证券研究报告 业绩略超预期，多市场成交额创新高 业绩简评 2026 年 2 月 26 日，香港交易所发布 2025 年业绩报告。2025 香港 交易所实现营业收入（收入及其他收益）291.61 亿港元，同比增 长 30%；归母净利润 177.54 亿港元，同比增长 36%。25Q4 归母净 利润 43.35 亿港元，同比增长 15%，环比减少 12%，主要是因为 25Q4 交投活跃度小幅降低。分业务条线来看，2025 现货、衍生品、商 品 、 数 据 及 连 接 、 公 司 项 目 收 入 同 比 增 速 分 别 为 56%/11%/14%/7%/17%，占营收比重分别为 50%/24%/11%/8%/7%。分 收费模式来看，交易及交易系统使用费、联交所上市费、结算及 交收费、存管托管及代理人服务费、市场数据费、投资收益同比 增 速 分 别 为 44%/21%/49%/31%/8%/4% ， 占 营 收 比 重 分 别 为 35%/6%/24%/5%/4%/18%。 经营分析 交易费：（1）现货市场：2025 年 ...

【国金非银】港交所2025：业绩略超预期，各市场多项成交额创历史新高 业绩概况：2025年香港交易所实现营业收入（收入及其他收益）291.61亿港元，同比增长30%；归母净利润177.54 亿港元，同比增长36%。 25Q4归母净利润43.35亿港元，同比增长15%，环比减少12%，主要是因为25Q4交投活跃度环比小幅降低。 分业务条线来看，2025现货、衍生品、商品、数据及连接、公司项目 【国金非银】港交所2025：业绩略超预期，各市场多项成交额创历史新高 业绩概况：2025年香港交易所实现营业收入（收入及其他收益）291.61亿港元，同比增长30%；归母净利润177.54 亿港元，同比增长36%。 25Q4归母净利润43.35亿港元，同比增长15%，环比减少12%，主要是因为25Q4交投活跃度环比小幅降低。 分业务条线来看，2025现货、衍生品、商品、数据及连接、公司项目收入同比增速分别为56%/11%/14%/7%/17%， 占营收比重分别为50%/24%/11%/8%/7%。 分收费模式来看，交易及交易系统使用费、联交所上市费、结算及交收费、存管托管及代理人服务费、市场数据 费、投资收益同比增速分别为 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the earnings forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) for 2025 and 2026, introducing a profit estimate of HKD 17.9 billion for 2027, with a target price of HKD 500, indicating a potential upside of 12.6% based on current P/E ratios [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - For Q4 2025, CICC predicts a year-on-year profit decline of 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 24% [2] - Total revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to increase by 4% year-on-year but decrease by 15% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 6.61 billion, with core business revenue projected to rise by 13% year-on-year but fall by 13% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 5.81 billion [2] - Full-year total revenue is forecasted to grow by 27% to HKD 28.46 billion, with profit expected to increase by 31% to HKD 17.15 billion [2] Group 2: Trading Activity - In Q4 2025, the average daily trading (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks is expected to be HKD 229.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20% [2] - Southbound ADT is projected to rise by 35% year-on-year to HKD 105.7 billion, while northbound ADT is expected to remain flat year-on-year at HKD 231.1 billion [2] - Derivatives trading is anticipated to see a slight decline, with overall ADV down by 2% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter to 1.61 million contracts [2] Group 3: Investment Income - CICC forecasts a significant drop in investment income for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 25% [3] - The decline in investment income is attributed to reduced margin investment returns and external investment redemptions, alongside changes in margin interest rebate policies [3] Group 4: Long-term Value and Market Dynamics - The average daily trading for Hong Kong stocks has reached HKD 267.6 billion since the beginning of the year, indicating a 7% increase compared to the full year of 2025 [4] - CICC notes that for every HKD 10 billion increase in ADT in 2026, the year-on-year profit growth rate could increase by 2.4 percentage points [4] - The valuation trends of HKEX have historically aligned with the Hang Seng Index, but since September, HKEX has underperformed the index by 11 percentage points [4]

4Q移动平均6M/1M/隔夜拆借HIBOR分别环比-0.26ppt/+1.17ppt/+1.16ppt，长端收益利率下滑而短端成本 利率回升下保证金息差或有所收窄，同时4Q起港交所调整保证金利息返利政策、带动资金成本有所提 升，叠加港交所衍生品保证金要求环比下降，或带动保证金投资收益下行。 关注港股beta的同时、更聚焦"资产+资金"双重共振下的中长期配置价值 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，基本维持香港交易所(00388)25e/26e盈利不变，引入27年盈利179 亿港币。当前交易于33x/31x 26e/27e P/E，维持目标价500港币不变、对应37x/35x 26e/27e P/E及12.6%的 上行空间;维持跑赢行业评级。 港交所计划于2月26日披露4Q25业绩：该行预计4Q25收入同比+4%/环比-15%至66.1亿港币，剔除投资 收益后主营业务收入同比+13%/环比-13%至58.1亿港币，盈利同比-1%/环比-24%至37.3亿港币;预计全年 总收入同比+27%至284.6亿港币，盈利同比+31%至171.5亿港币。 现货及衍生品活跃度环比边际回落、商品成交维持高位，该行预计4Q主营费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the earnings forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) unchanged, with a target price of HKD 465, indicating an 11% upside potential based on projected P/E ratios [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Performance - HKEX is expected to report a 2Q25 revenue of HKD 6.87 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter flat performance, with core fee income projected to rise by 30% year-on-year [1] - For the first half of the year, total revenue and profit are anticipated to increase by 29% and 34% respectively, reaching HKD 13.73 billion and HKD 8.20 billion [1] Group 2: Trading Activity Insights - The report highlights sustained high activity in spot and commodity trading, with a marginal decline in derivatives trading; 2Q average daily turnover (ADT) is expected to be HKD 238.1 billion, up 96% year-on-year [2] - The number of IPOs in 2Q reached 27, raising HKD 88.4 billion, marking a significant increase of 932% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Investment Income and Market Conditions - Investment income is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year to HKD 1.39 billion, driven by a favorable margin environment despite a decline in HIBOR rates [3] - The report notes that the decline in short-term interest rates may enhance margin income, supported by increased collateral requirements in a high-volatility market [3] Group 4: Long-term Growth Potential - The dual resonance of "assets + funds" is expected to enhance HKEX's mid-to-long-term value, with potential increases in market capitalization from "A+H" listings and the return of Chinese concept stocks [4] - If the average daily turnover reaches HKD 210 billion by 2025, HKEX's profit could grow by 18% to HKD 15.4 billion, with a projected CAGR of 14% for ADT over the next decade [4]