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期指:或震荡偏强走势
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:12
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that stock index futures may show a volatile and moderately strong trend. On September 15, the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed performance, with trading volume and open interest generally decreasing, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **September 15 Quotes**: The closing prices, price changes, basis, trading volumes, and open interests of various stock index futures contracts (such as IF, IH, IC, IM) and their underlying indexes (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) are presented. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4533.06, up 0.24%, while IF2509 closed at 4527.8, up 0.04%, with a basis of - 5.26 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures decreased, with IF down 10859 lots, IH down 9934 lots, IC down 38503 lots, and IM down 46447 lots. The total open interest also decreased, with IF down 11030 lots, IH down 1517 lots, IC down 18126 lots, and IM down 15462 lots [2]. 3.2 Basis Charts - Basis charts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, showing the basis changes of current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts from August 20 to September 15 [4]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in various stock index futures contracts are presented. For example, in the IF2509 contract, long positions decreased by 13634 lots, and short positions decreased by 13985 lots [5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, and those of IC and IM are also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers - Policy Factors: An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping will be published in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine, emphasizing the rectification of corporate low - price disorderly competition and government procurement bidding chaos. The National Bureau of Statistics states that in August, the national economy was generally stable, but there are still many risks and challenges [7]. - Market Conditions: The market is optimistic about the interest - rate decision week. The S&P has reached 6600 points, and the NASDAQ has hit a record high for six consecutive trading days. In the domestic A - share market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% to 3860.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.51%. The A - share trading volume was 2.3 trillion yuan, down from 2.55 trillion yuan the previous day [7][8].