Macro Strategy - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to occur through three main avenues: nominating a compliant Fed Chair, adjusting the personnel structure of the Fed Board, and intervening in the appointment of regional Fed presidents [1][18] - With the new Fed Chair's appointment, Trump is anticipated to have greater influence, potentially leading to more aggressive rate cuts than currently priced in by the market, with the policy rate possibly falling below the neutral level of 3% [1][18] Economic Commentary - In August, both domestic and external demand weakened, leading to a situation where supply adjustments lag behind demand, reinforcing a short-term scenario of strong supply and weak demand [2][19] - The industrial production growth rate remained above 5%, indicating resilience in the supply side despite a slight decline, while GDP growth is expected to remain around 5% in Q3 [2][19] - The divergence between supply and demand is unsustainable, and if demand does not strengthen, supply is likely to follow suit, leading to greater pressure on GDP in Q4 compared to Q3 [2][19] Fixed Income Market - The market is seeing an increase in expectations for the resumption of "government bond trading," with significant liquidity measures being implemented, including a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation [4][22] - The anticipated resumption of government bond trading could stabilize bond yields and further lower financing costs for the real economy [4][22] Industry Analysis - The battery sector is expected to see price increases for energy storage cells, marking the end of a three-year deflation period, with leading companies like CATL and others showing strong performance [15] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the battery sector, particularly for companies with low valuations and strong earnings potential, such as Tianqi Lithium and others [15] - The solid-state battery segment is also emphasized as a key area for investment, with companies like Xiamen Tungsten and others being recommended [15]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 先导智能（300450） 交付多条固态电池干法成膜设备，龙头强者 恒强 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16,628 | 11,855 | 13,800 | 15,850 | 19,000 | | 同比（%） | 19.35 | (28.71) | 16.41 | 14.86 | 19.87 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,774.57 | 286.10 | 1,533.42 | 2,040.81 | 2,483.70 | | 同比（%） | (23.45) | (83.88) | 435.97 | 33.09 | 21.70 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.13 | 0.18 | 0.98 | 1.30 | 1.59 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 48.54 | 301.08 | 56.17 | 42.21 | 34.68 | [Tab ...