金融研究 2025年10月10日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 股指期货 市场表现：10 月 9 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 1.32%，报收 3933.97 点；深成 指上涨 1.47%，报收 13725.56 点；创业板指上涨 0.73%，报收 3261.82 点；科创 50 指数上涨 2.93%， 报收 1539.08 点。市场成交 26,718 亿元，较前日增加 4,746 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+7.6%)， 钢铁(+3.38%)，煤炭(+3%)涨幅居前；传媒(-1.43%)，房地产(-1.39%)，社会服务(-1.03%)跌幅居前。 从市场强弱看，IC>IF>IH>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,109/135/2,184。沪深两市，机构、主力、大 户、散户全天资金分别净流入-136、-120、96、159 亿元，分别变动+70、+3、+9、-81 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 121.25、90.92、12.68 与-2.4 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-12.39%、-9.41%、-2.1%与 0.62%，三年期历史分位数分别为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - to long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties at low prices; short - term market shows signs of cooling [3] - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging on T and TL contracts at high prices in the medium - to long - term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On August 22, A - share four major stock indexes all rose, with Shanghai Composite Index up 1.45% to 3825.76 points, Shenzhen Component Index up 2.07% to 12166.06 points, ChiNext Index up 3.36% to 2682.55 points, and Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up 8.59% to 1247.86 points. Market turnover was 2578.8 billion yuan, an increase of 118.5 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, electronics, communication, and computer led the gains, while banks, textile and apparel, and coal led the losses [2] - On August 22, Treasury bond futures yields rose. Among active contracts, the implied interest rate of two - year bonds was 1.431, up 0.4 bps from the previous day; five - year bonds was 1.658, up 1.68 bps; ten - year bonds was 1.786, up 3.04 bps; thirty - year bonds was 2.142, up 1.08 bps [3] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 61.14, 52.45, - 9.8, and - 9.39 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 5.93%, - 5.49%, 1.6%, and 2.29%, and three - year historical quantiles of 58%, 44%, 75%, and 76% respectively [3] 3.3 Capital Situation - In open - market operations, the central bank's currency injection was 361.2 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 238 billion yuan, and net injection was 123.2 billion yuan [4] 3.4 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - Details of the performance of various stock index futures and spot products on August 22 are presented in Table 1, including information such as code, name, price change percentage, current price, price change, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, basis, and annualized basis yield [6] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - Details of the performance of various Treasury bond futures and spot products on August 22 are presented in Table 2, including information such as code, name, price change percentage, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, net basis, CTD bond implied interest rate, and spot bond yield [7] 3.6 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak. Based on the comparison of medium - term data of each module with the same period in the past five years (year - on - year month - on - month), scores are given according to the degree of change [10][13]