2025 年 05 月 08 日 业绩符合预期，整体稳健增长 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-07 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 47.49 | | 总市值（亿元） | 592 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1247 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1247 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 35.59-57.6 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 338.96 | 市场表现 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 今世缘 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 3、《今世缘（603369）：主动降速 控节奏，稳步增长向前看》2024- 10-31 —今世缘（603369.SH）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 4 月 29 日，今世缘发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季 报。 投资要点 ▌ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, showing steady growth. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be CNY 115.46 billion and CNY 34.12 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 14% and 9% [5] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at CNY 2.95, CNY 3.24, and CNY 3.60 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit reached CNY 50.99 billion and CNY 16.44 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9% and 7% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 75% and 30%, with slight declines in 2025 Q1 to 74% and 32% [5] - Operating cash flow showed strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 42% in Q1 2025 [5] Product and Channel Performance - Revenue from key product categories in 2024 showed growth, with the premium A+ category growing by 15.17% and the A category by 16.61% [6] - Direct sales and wholesale revenue for 2024 were CNY 2.73 billion and CNY 112.05 billion, respectively, with increases of 20.78% and 14.19% [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory post reaching CNY 100 billion in revenue, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 being CNY 2.95, CNY 3.24, and CNY 3.60, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 15, and 13 times [7][10]

省内精耕攀顶，省外增速领先，双轮驱动增长动能持续。分地区看，24 年省内/省外营收分别为 105.51/9.26 亿元，同比+13.3%/+27.4%，其中省内南京/ 淮安/ 苏中/ 苏南/ 盐城/ 淮海大区分别实现营收 26.31/22.35/19.24/14.26/12.74/10.62 亿元， 分别同比+11.7%/+12.3%/+21.2%/+9.5%/+15.6%/+9.1%。25Q1 省内/省外营收分别为46.42/4.37 亿元，同比+8.5%/19.0%，其中省内南京/淮安/苏中/淮海/盐城/苏南大区 分别实现营收13.27/9.19/7.16/5.89/5.75/5.16 亿元，分别同比+5.2%/+9.0%/+15.2%/+3.2%/+12.6%/+9.2%。 公司在省内南京、淮安等优势市场在高基数、高占有情况下持续增长，扬州、泰州、南通等区域增长动 能不断增强。省外板块市场实现重大突破，实施四级市场机制，聚焦国缘品牌打造，以四开带动环三角 一体化，当前高增速势头延续，有望在25 年持续贡献增量。截止25Q1，公司经销商数量省内/省外分别 为636/631 家，分别同比净增长123/125 ...