Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the dairy industry in China, specifically focusing on the company China Shengmu (中国圣牧) and its operations in the dairy farming sector, including milk and beef cattle production. Key Points and Arguments Dairy Cattle Market Dynamics - **Slower Culling Rate**: The culling rate of dairy cows has slowed down due to stable sales channels, alleviated cost pressures, high raw milk prices, and rising beef prices. The market turning point may be delayed until 2026 [2][3][4]. - **Raw Milk Prices**: The price of raw milk is expected to remain low, with some farms potentially opting for quicker culling under current beef prices [5][6]. - **Profitability Challenges for Social Farms**: Social farms face significant profitability challenges, with a breakeven point around 3 RMB/kg for raw milk. Including calf costs leads to widespread losses [2][7][8]. Beef Cattle Market Influence - **Rising Beef Prices**: Beef prices have increased from 14-15 RMB/kg to approximately 19 RMB/kg, prompting some farms to cull inefficient dairy cows. However, some farmers are holding out for a milk price recovery [9][10]. - **Market Strategy Adjustments**: Social farms are adjusting their strategies more flexibly, with some opting to shift towards beef cattle farming due to better market certainty [9][12]. Financial and Credit Environment - **Tightened Bank Credit Policies**: Banks have become stricter with credit policies compared to last year, although support may still be available for farms with stable sales channels [14][15]. - **Feed Supply Issues**: Many social farms faced low feed reserves last year, leading to feed shortages and potential quality issues [16][17]. Market Expectations and Price Fluctuations - **Divergent Expectations on Milk Price Recovery**: There are differing opinions on when milk prices will recover, with some expecting a rise in Q3 or Q4 of 2025, while others believe it may take longer [4][18]. - **Impact of Downstream Dairy Companies**: The strategy of downstream dairy companies regarding milk collection significantly impacts farm cash flow, often more than milk price fluctuations [4][20]. Cost Structures and Profitability - **Cash Cost Composition**: The cash cost of fresh milk is complex, with current costs around 2.3-2.4 RMB/kg excluding calves, and approximately 3 RMB/kg including calves [35][36]. - **Profitability Under Current Prices**: At current milk prices (around 3 RMB/kg), farms are likely operating at a loss, with losses estimated between 0.1 to 0.5 RMB/kg depending on calf numbers [36]. Future Outlook - **Potential for Price Stabilization**: If demand conditions do not change significantly, a clear turning point in the fresh milk market is unlikely in the short term, with potential stabilization only expected in early 2026 [5][23]. - **Beef Price Impact on Industry**: A significant increase in beef prices in 2025 could positively affect the entire industry, while stable prices would maintain market balance [32]. Specialty Milk Products - **Organic and Specialty Milk**: The company has a strong focus on organic milk, with about 75-80% of its products being organic. The company aims to increase the proportion of specialty milk to counteract low ordinary milk prices [42][43]. Other Important Insights - **Market Structure and Trends**: The average dairy cow's production cycle and culling age are around 2.9 lactations and 5 years, respectively, indicating a relatively short production cycle driven by economic factors [40][41]. - **A2 Milk Production**: A2 milk production has lower barriers but currently faces limited market demand, with only one farm producing it [44][45]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and dynamics within the dairy industry, particularly for China Shengmu.