——伊利股份有望受益于乳制品行业国产替代和品类多元化机会 必选消费悦悦谈：乳制品周期底部韧性显现，期待趋势反转 必选消费（强于大市） 2025/12/04 STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL © Nomura 证券研究报告 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 原奶周期复盘：进口大包粉影响逐步减弱，规模化 养殖发展迅速 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 2010-02 2010-09 2011-04 2011-11 2012-06 2013-01 2013-08 2014-03 2014-10 2015-05 2015-12 2016-07 2017-02 2017-09 2018-04 2018-11 2019-06 2020-01 2020-08 2021-03 2021-10 2022-05 2022-12 2023-07 2024-02 2024-09 2025-04 元/kg 市场价:生鲜乳:全国(主产省) 2021年9月至今生鲜乳价格降幅为30.6% 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0 2000 40 ...

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨食品、饮料与烟草 [Table_Title] 乳制品行业事件点评：对欧盟进口乳制品采取反 补贴措施，深加工国产替代进程有望加速 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 商务部公告 2025 年第 83 号：公布对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品反补贴调查的初步裁定—— 调查机关初步认定，原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品存在补贴，中国国内相关乳制品产业受到实 质损害，而且补贴与实质损害之间存在因果关系。国务院关税税则委员会根据商务部的建议作 出决定，自 2025 年 12 月 23 日起，采取临时反补贴税保证金的形式对原产于欧盟的进口相关 乳制品实施临时反补贴措施。 董思远 徐爽 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 食品、饮料与烟草 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 乳制品行业事件点评：对欧盟进口乳制品采取 2] 反补贴措施，深加工国产替代进程有望加速 [Table_ ...

食品饮料板块15日盘中强势拉升，乳业股表现亮眼，截至发稿，欢乐家、皇氏集团、阳光乳业等涨停， 骑士乳业涨超8%，贝因美、晨光生物涨约5%。 消息面上，12月13日，全国医疗保障工作会议在北京召开，国家医保局在会议上发布多项数据和措施， 其中包括，力争2026年全国基本实现政策范围内分娩个人"无自付" 。 2026年，医保部门将推动将灵活就业人员、农民工、新就业形态人员纳入生育保险覆盖范围。合理提升 产前检查医疗费用保障水平，力争全国基本实现政策范围内分娩个人"无自付"。将适宜的分娩镇痛项目 按程序纳入基金支付范围。全面实现生育津贴按程序直接发放给参保人。 开源证券近日指出，近年婴配粉行业需求承压，政策刺激下需求及消费信心有望恢复。从整体乳制品行 业来看，长期也将受益于政策刺激下人口问题改善趋势。此外，近期乳制品行业出现新的积极变化，一 是国内乳企开始利用奶价底部窗口期发展以乳清为代表的深加工产品，产能逐渐释放后有望加大原奶下 游需求，将进一步填补供需缺口；二是行业开始探索出口潜力，当前国内大包粉价格优势明显，乳企在 确保相关指标及生产规范性的前提下尝试出口；两者均带来行业需求新动能，叠加供给侧持续出清，行 业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Bright Dairy (光明乳业), confirmed that its subsidiary, New Zealand Newlight Dairy Co., exports products to EU countries, indicating its international market presence and product distribution strategy [1]. Group 1 - The company has been asked by investors about its product exports to EU countries [1]. - Bright Dairy's subsidiary, New Zealand Newlight Dairy Co., primarily sells dairy products, plant-based nutrition products, bulk powder, and milk powder to downstream dairy enterprises and global customers [1]. - Newlight has products that are exported to EU countries, showcasing its capability to penetrate international markets [1].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The dairy industry is characterized by its cyclical nature, influenced by the growth cycle of cattle, which takes approximately 13 months from calf to mature cow [1] - The industry has become increasingly large-scale since 2008, driven by food safety incidents and environmental regulations, leading to a consolidation of farms [2] - As of 2020, leading farms accounted for 43% of the market, although the overall competition remains fragmented with top companies holding less than 4% market share [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Milk price fluctuations are influenced by both supply and demand factors [3] - Supply factors include the price of imported milk powder, which serves as a substitute for fresh milk when prices are lower abroad [3] - Demand factors are driven by population growth and per capita dairy consumption, which is affected by income levels and health awareness [5] - Feed costs constitute about 70% of the raw milk sales cost, making it a significant factor in dairy farming profitability [5] Historical Price Cycles - The industry has experienced three major cycles from 2008 to present: - **2008-2013**: Milk prices fell due to the melamine scandal, leading to reduced demand [6] - **2013-2018**: Prices rose due to supply constraints from disease outbreaks and rising feed costs, followed by a decline due to increased imports [7] - **2019-Present**: Prices have been rising due to supply reductions from farm exits and supportive policies, although a recent oversupply has led to price declines starting in 2021 [9] Current Market Conditions - Current milk prices are around 3203, showing a slight decline from the previous week [9] - The industry is in a phase of bottoming out, with many farms facing losses due to falling prices and rising feed costs [10] - Factors such as rising beef prices and seasonal procurement pressures are expected to increase financial strain on smaller farms [11] Future Outlook - The second half of the year may see a balance between supply and demand, aided by government subsidies and new standards reducing reliance on imported milk powder [12] - Companies like YouRan are expected to benefit from a rebound in milk prices, with potential profit increases linked to higher proportions of premium milk sales [13] - The integration of supply chains and cost management strategies are expected to enhance profitability for leading firms [17] Company-Specific Insights - YouRan's revenue is significantly supported by stable demand from major customers like Yili, which accounts for 95% of its raw milk income [16] - The company has a diversified product range, including organic and premium milk, which helps mitigate risks associated with falling milk prices [14] - The overall industry outlook suggests that leading companies will benefit from cost reductions and a potential rebound in milk prices, with historical price cycles indicating a strong likelihood of recovery [23][24] Conclusion - The dairy industry is currently navigating a challenging environment with fluctuating prices and rising costs, but there are signs of potential recovery driven by policy support and market adjustments. Leading companies are well-positioned to capitalize on these changes through strategic management and product differentiation.

Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Overweight" for the dairy industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [65]. Core Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn in fresh milk prices, with a potential turning point expected in 2025. The price of fresh milk reached a low of 3.04 yuan/kg in July 2025, following a peak of 4.38 yuan/kg in August 2021. This cycle typically spans approximately eight years [21][30]. - The overall production of dairy products in China has increased from 26.518 million tons in 2014 to 29.618 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.11% [32][33]. - The report highlights a trend of consolidation in the dairy supply chain, with larger farms increasingly dominating the market. The number of farms with over 1,000 head of cattle has risen to 12% by 2022 [26][30]. Summary by Sections Dairy Industry Overview - The dairy industry has a long supply chain, including feed, dairy farming, processing, and retail. Major dairy companies are concentrated in regions such as Northwest, North China, and East China, particularly in Inner Mongolia and Zhejiang [3][11][17]. Fresh Milk Price Cycle - The fresh milk price cycle has shown a pattern of peaks and troughs approximately every eight years. The last peak was in February 2014 at 4.27 yuan/kg, followed by a decline that stabilized around 3.4 yuan/kg until 2015. The current cycle began in 2018, peaking in 2021 and declining to 3.04 yuan/kg by July 2025 [21][28][30]. Companies in the Dairy Sector - The report identifies 17 dairy-related companies listed on the New Third Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange. Notable companies include Knight Dairy, Jule Dairy, and Southern Dairy, with Knight Dairy being a listed entity and others in the process of listing [4][35]. - Knight Dairy has shown a steady revenue growth trend, with a revenue of 3.70 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 55.88%. However, its net profit has declined by 38.70% [4][39]. - Jule Dairy, known for its "Suanle Milk" product, reported a revenue of 1.641 billion yuan in 2024, a 5.06% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 232 million yuan, up 18.35% [5][52]. - Southern Dairy, recognized as a key enterprise in Guizhou, achieved a revenue of 1.817 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 0.65% growth, with a net profit of 209 million yuan, up 4.36% [6][59].

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the dairy industry in China, specifically focusing on the company China Shengmu (中国圣牧) and its operations in the dairy farming sector, including milk and beef cattle production. Key Points and Arguments Dairy Cattle Market Dynamics - **Slower Culling Rate**: The culling rate of dairy cows has slowed down due to stable sales channels, alleviated cost pressures, high raw milk prices, and rising beef prices. The market turning point may be delayed until 2026 [2][3][4]. - **Raw Milk Prices**: The price of raw milk is expected to remain low, with some farms potentially opting for quicker culling under current beef prices [5][6]. - **Profitability Challenges for Social Farms**: Social farms face significant profitability challenges, with a breakeven point around 3 RMB/kg for raw milk. Including calf costs leads to widespread losses [2][7][8]. Beef Cattle Market Influence - **Rising Beef Prices**: Beef prices have increased from 14-15 RMB/kg to approximately 19 RMB/kg, prompting some farms to cull inefficient dairy cows. However, some farmers are holding out for a milk price recovery [9][10]. - **Market Strategy Adjustments**: Social farms are adjusting their strategies more flexibly, with some opting to shift towards beef cattle farming due to better market certainty [9][12]. Financial and Credit Environment - **Tightened Bank Credit Policies**: Banks have become stricter with credit policies compared to last year, although support may still be available for farms with stable sales channels [14][15]. - **Feed Supply Issues**: Many social farms faced low feed reserves last year, leading to feed shortages and potential quality issues [16][17]. Market Expectations and Price Fluctuations - **Divergent Expectations on Milk Price Recovery**: There are differing opinions on when milk prices will recover, with some expecting a rise in Q3 or Q4 of 2025, while others believe it may take longer [4][18]. - **Impact of Downstream Dairy Companies**: The strategy of downstream dairy companies regarding milk collection significantly impacts farm cash flow, often more than milk price fluctuations [4][20]. Cost Structures and Profitability - **Cash Cost Composition**: The cash cost of fresh milk is complex, with current costs around 2.3-2.4 RMB/kg excluding calves, and approximately 3 RMB/kg including calves [35][36]. - **Profitability Under Current Prices**: At current milk prices (around 3 RMB/kg), farms are likely operating at a loss, with losses estimated between 0.1 to 0.5 RMB/kg depending on calf numbers [36]. Future Outlook - **Potential for Price Stabilization**: If demand conditions do not change significantly, a clear turning point in the fresh milk market is unlikely in the short term, with potential stabilization only expected in early 2026 [5][23]. - **Beef Price Impact on Industry**: A significant increase in beef prices in 2025 could positively affect the entire industry, while stable prices would maintain market balance [32]. Specialty Milk Products - **Organic and Specialty Milk**: The company has a strong focus on organic milk, with about 75-80% of its products being organic. The company aims to increase the proportion of specialty milk to counteract low ordinary milk prices [42][43]. Other Important Insights - **Market Structure and Trends**: The average dairy cow's production cycle and culling age are around 2.9 lactations and 5 years, respectively, indicating a relatively short production cycle driven by economic factors [40][41]. - **A2 Milk Production**: A2 milk production has lower barriers but currently faces limited market demand, with only one farm producing it [44][45]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and dynamics within the dairy industry, particularly for China Shengmu.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the raw milk industry [1] Core Insights - The domestic raw milk market is expected to experience a reversal and upward trend in 2025, driven by a combination of domestic dairy cow culling and rising meat prices, alongside a reduction in imports [5][6] - The industry has faced a cumulative decline in raw milk prices for nearly four years, with significant losses reported [4][6] - The current reliance on imported whole milk powder to supplement domestic raw milk supply indicates a structural gap in production [30][32] Overview of the Industry - Raw milk is the core raw material for the dairy industry, with China being the fourth-largest milk producer globally, yet still dependent on imports to meet demand [3][17] - The domestic raw milk market has been under pressure due to overcapacity and declining prices since mid-2021, leading to significant financial losses for producers [4][59] Historical Review - The domestic raw milk price has experienced two major cycles since 2009, with the latest cycle starting in 2018, characterized by price recovery and capital expansion [4][56] - The current downturn has persisted since mid-2021, with prices dropping to around 3.40 yuan/kg, reflecting a cumulative decline of approximately 22% from the peak [59][63] Future Outlook - By the second half of 2025, raw milk prices are anticipated to rebound due to a reduction in domestic dairy cow numbers and a decrease in imports, as the overseas market has already begun to recover [5][63] - The report forecasts that the number of dairy cows in China will decrease to approximately 13 million by early 2025, returning to levels seen in 2019 [63] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The annual demand for raw milk in China is close to 4.5 million tons, with a supply gap of about 500,000 tons that is primarily filled by imports of whole milk powder [32][30] - The cost structure of raw milk production is heavily influenced by feed prices, which account for approximately 65% of the total production cost [23][24] Industry Structure - The dairy farming sector is capital-intensive, with large-scale operations benefiting from economies of scale and improved production efficiency [25][26] - Major dairy companies are increasingly integrating upstream to secure raw milk supply, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the industry [25][64]