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中国圣牧20260626
2025-06-26 15:51
中国圣牧 20260626 摘要 奶牛出清节奏放缓:受稳定销路、成本压力缓解、散奶价格维持高位及 肉牛价格上涨等因素影响,2025 年第二季度奶牛出清速度未及预期, 市场拐点或推迟至 2026 年。 大包粉价格上涨影响有限:国产大包粉价格虽上涨至 2 万元/吨左右,但 与进口粉相比仍有替代空间,且牧场喷粉意愿与直接销售散奶意愿相近, 大幅上涨对生鲜乳市场周期的影响尚不确定。 社会化牧场盈利困难:在当前生鲜乳价格下,社会化牧场若不计算小牛 现金投入,盈亏平衡点约为 3 元/公斤;若计入小牛成本,则普遍亏损, 奶牛结构对养殖成本影响显著。 肉牛价格上涨影响牧场策略:肉牛价格上涨至 19 元/公斤,促使牧场淘 汰低效奶牛,但部分牧场主选择坚持,期待奶价拐点,或转向肉牛养殖, 社会牧场经营策略调整更为灵活。 银行信贷政策收紧:银行对牧场信贷政策较去年更为严格,但对有稳定 销售渠道的牧场可能提供支持,集团化牧场信贷情况良好,未出现收紧。 Q&A 当前生鲜乳收购价格的判断及影响因素有哪些? 2025 年第三季度生鲜乳周期可能不会如市场预期般到来。主要基于以下几点 判断:首先,从需求端来看,与客户对接后发现需求并未明显好转 ...
原奶行业投资框架:2025年国内原奶景气有望反转上行
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-09 13:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the raw milk industry [1] Core Insights - The domestic raw milk market is expected to experience a reversal and upward trend in 2025, driven by a combination of domestic dairy cow culling and rising meat prices, alongside a reduction in imports [5][6] - The industry has faced a cumulative decline in raw milk prices for nearly four years, with significant losses reported [4][6] - The current reliance on imported whole milk powder to supplement domestic raw milk supply indicates a structural gap in production [30][32] Overview of the Industry - Raw milk is the core raw material for the dairy industry, with China being the fourth-largest milk producer globally, yet still dependent on imports to meet demand [3][17] - The domestic raw milk market has been under pressure due to overcapacity and declining prices since mid-2021, leading to significant financial losses for producers [4][59] Historical Review - The domestic raw milk price has experienced two major cycles since 2009, with the latest cycle starting in 2018, characterized by price recovery and capital expansion [4][56] - The current downturn has persisted since mid-2021, with prices dropping to around 3.40 yuan/kg, reflecting a cumulative decline of approximately 22% from the peak [59][63] Future Outlook - By the second half of 2025, raw milk prices are anticipated to rebound due to a reduction in domestic dairy cow numbers and a decrease in imports, as the overseas market has already begun to recover [5][63] - The report forecasts that the number of dairy cows in China will decrease to approximately 13 million by early 2025, returning to levels seen in 2019 [63] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The annual demand for raw milk in China is close to 4.5 million tons, with a supply gap of about 500,000 tons that is primarily filled by imports of whole milk powder [32][30] - The cost structure of raw milk production is heavily influenced by feed prices, which account for approximately 65% of the total production cost [23][24] Industry Structure - The dairy farming sector is capital-intensive, with large-scale operations benefiting from economies of scale and improved production efficiency [25][26] - Major dairy companies are increasingly integrating upstream to secure raw milk supply, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the industry [25][64]