地球系统预报体系
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顶层设计落地,中国气象局发布未来十年地球系统预报发展战略
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-18 12:00
Core Viewpoint - The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has announced the "Earth System Forecast Development Strategy (2025-2035)" aimed at enhancing weather and climate forecasting capabilities to address climate change and extreme weather events [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Goals - The goal is to establish a self-controlled, internationally advanced Earth system forecasting system by 2035, with a focus on operationalizing a new generation of forecasting models and building a unified framework for meteorological AI models within the next five years [2]. - The strategy will be implemented through two five-year plans, with the first plan focusing on operationalizing new forecasting models and the second plan (2030-2035) aimed at fully establishing a unified Earth system forecasting framework [2]. Group 2: Technical Approach - The strategy proposes an innovative "dual-driven, digital-intelligence integration" development path, combining physical-based numerical forecasting with artificial intelligence to enhance forecasting accuracy and efficiency [2]. - The integration of numerical forecasting and AI will allow for precise simulations of Earth's various layers and the extraction of forecasting patterns from vast meteorological data [2]. Group 3: Key Tasks - The strategy outlines eight key tasks, including the development of multi-layer coupled Earth system models, the creation of AI models for integrated weather and climate forecasting, and the establishment of a seamless intelligent forecasting business system [3][4]. - It emphasizes the importance of high-level services for disaster prevention, climate change adaptation, and socio-economic development, aiming to effectively convert meteorological data into application value [4]. Group 4: Societal Impact - The development of Earth system forecasting capabilities will significantly enhance early warning systems for extreme weather, thereby protecting lives and property [4]. - It will provide precise meteorological support for various sectors, including agriculture, renewable energy, transportation, and finance, while contributing to ecological civilization and climate change goals [4].
中国气象局:到2035年建成自主可控、国际先进的地球系统预报体系
Yang Shi Xin Wen Ke Hu Duan· 2025-12-18 05:55
Core Viewpoint - The China Meteorological Administration has released the "Earth System Forecast Development Strategy (2025-2035)", aiming to establish a comprehensive Earth system forecasting system that integrates various Earth spheres for better disaster prevention, climate change response, and socio-economic development support [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Goals - The goal is to build an autonomous and internationally advanced Earth system forecasting system by 2035, progressing in two phases [2]. - The first phase focuses on operationalizing a new generation of forecasting models and establishing a unified framework for meteorological artificial intelligence models within the next five years [2]. - The second phase, from 2030 to 2035, aims to fully establish a unified Earth system forecasting framework, significantly enhancing the simulation and prediction capabilities of multi-scale and multi-sphere interactions [2]. Group 2: Key Tasks - Develop multi-sphere coupled Earth system models to comprehensively reflect interactions among different Earth spheres [3]. - Focus on the research and development of meteorological artificial intelligence models to create an integrated forecasting system for weather and climate [3]. - Promote deep integration of numerical forecasting and artificial intelligence, developing common technologies and shared platforms [3]. - Build Earth system digital infrastructure to achieve seamless intelligent forecasting capabilities across all time scales, from minutes to decades [3]. - Provide high-level services for disaster prevention, climate change, and socio-economic development, effectively transforming meteorological data into application value [3]. - Strengthen the allocation of scientific and technological innovation resources to create an efficient and collaborative innovation development mechanism for Earth system forecasting [3]. - Advance the construction of a high-level talent team with a complete talent training and evaluation system [3]. - Enhance international cooperation and communication to promote data and technology resource sharing [3].