Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][36][41] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a net profit growth of 68% year-on-year, despite a decline in revenue [1][3] - The recovery in profitability is attributed to high capacity utilization and a decrease in raw material costs, leading to a substantial recovery in gross margin [3][36] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 57.67% [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.591 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.99% year-on-year, primarily due to cautious ordering from downstream customers influenced by U.S. tariff policies [1] - The gross margin improved by 5.20 percentage points to 15.20%, benefiting from high operating rates in domestic and Vietnamese factories and a decline in raw material costs [1][34] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 390 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.53% [1][3] Market Trends - The second quarter saw a revenue of 1.86 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in orders expected following the implementation of U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese exports [2][3] - The gross margin for the second quarter increased by 2.01 percentage points year-on-year to 15.51%, driven by improved operating rates and lower raw material costs [2] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain high operating rates and benefit from low-cost cotton inventory, leading to sustained high profitability [3][36] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 has been raised to 660 million, 700 million, and 740 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 61.9% in 2025 [3][36][37] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.44 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 [37][38] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 8.383 billion yuan [5][38]

Core Viewpoint - Bailong Oriental is gradually emerging from the industry's "de-inventory" shadow, with significant improvements in its financial performance and operational efficiency [1][5]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects a net profit of 350 million to 410 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.21% to 75.97%. The non-net profit is projected to be 323 million to 383 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 201.87% to 257.94% [2][3]. - In 2024, Bailong Oriental achieved an operating income of 7.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.86%, while net profit decreased by 18.62% to 410 million yuan. However, the non-net profit surged by 1128.03% to 220 million yuan [3]. Market and Production Capacity - The company has a strong order backlog in both domestic and overseas markets, leading to improved overall capacity utilization and increased main business profits [2][3]. - Bailong Oriental is a leading producer of colored spun yarn in China, with its Vietnamese subsidiary accounting for approximately 77% of its total production capacity, which has reached 1.26 million spindles [1][6]. Raw Material Dependency and Risk Management - Raw materials constitute about 70% of the company's operating costs, with cotton being the most significant component. The company has adapted its procurement strategy based on domestic and international production layouts [3]. - Bailong Oriental has engaged in futures trading to hedge against raw material price fluctuations, which has led to significant variations in investment income. In 2022, the company earned 777 million yuan from cotton futures, but this dropped to 127 million yuan in 2023 and further decreased to 76.71 million yuan in 2024 [4][5]. International Expansion and Client Base - Since 2013, Bailong Oriental has been expanding its overseas production capacity, focusing on a "small batch, multiple varieties, and quick response" business model. The company serves both domestic brands like Li Ning and international brands such as Nike and Adidas [6][7]. - In 2024, the company reported overseas revenue of 5.425 billion yuan, accounting for 68.32% of total revenue, with the Vietnamese subsidiary achieving a revenue of 5.997 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.03% [7].