Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai has spent over 5.3 billion yuan on share buybacks to stabilize stock prices and boost market confidence amid a challenging environment for the liquor industry [2][6]. Summary by Sections Share Buyback Details - As of July 2025, Guizhou Moutai has repurchased a total of 3.45 million shares, accounting for 0.2748% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of 5.301 billion yuan [5]. - The highest purchase price during the buyback was 1,639.99 yuan per share, while the lowest was 1,408.29 yuan per share [5]. Market Conditions - The liquor industry is currently facing challenges such as overcapacity, high inventory levels, and price inversions [6]. - The wholesale price of Moutai's Snake Year liquor has returned to 2,000 yuan per bottle, indicating a slight recovery in pricing [4][6]. Industry Outlook - The liquor sector is in a phase of rapid bottoming out, with leading companies expected to adjust channel structures and enhance market development capabilities [8]. - The valuation of the liquor industry is at a ten-year low, with the current valuation for liquor at 11.98 times earnings, which is lower than the overall food and beverage sector valuation of 13.93 times [7][8]. - The industry is undergoing a destocking cycle, with multiple pressures from pricing, demand, and policy affecting liquor companies [8].

Core Viewpoint - Bailong Oriental is gradually emerging from the industry's "de-inventory" shadow, with significant improvements in its financial performance and operational efficiency [1][5]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects a net profit of 350 million to 410 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.21% to 75.97%. The non-net profit is projected to be 323 million to 383 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 201.87% to 257.94% [2][3]. - In 2024, Bailong Oriental achieved an operating income of 7.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.86%, while net profit decreased by 18.62% to 410 million yuan. However, the non-net profit surged by 1128.03% to 220 million yuan [3]. Market and Production Capacity - The company has a strong order backlog in both domestic and overseas markets, leading to improved overall capacity utilization and increased main business profits [2][3]. - Bailong Oriental is a leading producer of colored spun yarn in China, with its Vietnamese subsidiary accounting for approximately 77% of its total production capacity, which has reached 1.26 million spindles [1][6]. Raw Material Dependency and Risk Management - Raw materials constitute about 70% of the company's operating costs, with cotton being the most significant component. The company has adapted its procurement strategy based on domestic and international production layouts [3]. - Bailong Oriental has engaged in futures trading to hedge against raw material price fluctuations, which has led to significant variations in investment income. In 2022, the company earned 777 million yuan from cotton futures, but this dropped to 127 million yuan in 2023 and further decreased to 76.71 million yuan in 2024 [4][5]. International Expansion and Client Base - Since 2013, Bailong Oriental has been expanding its overseas production capacity, focusing on a "small batch, multiple varieties, and quick response" business model. The company serves both domestic brands like Li Ning and international brands such as Nike and Adidas [6][7]. - In 2024, the company reported overseas revenue of 5.425 billion yuan, accounting for 68.32% of total revenue, with the Vietnamese subsidiary achieving a revenue of 5.997 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.03% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark index [5][76]. Core Insights - The report highlights a short-term pressure on pig prices due to weak demand and increased supply, driven by policy measures aimed at reducing inventory and weight in the industry [1][4][23]. - The report suggests that the industry capacity cycle has bottomed out, and after the inventory reduction phase, a long-term profit uptrend is expected [4][73]. - The agricultural sector is experiencing mixed price movements, with corn prices rising while soybean meal and wheat prices are declining [2][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agricultural, forestry, and fishery sector underperformed the market, with the sector index rising by 0.91% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.13% increase [14]. - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with the average price at 14.05 yuan/kg, down 2.90% week-on-week [22][23]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is reported at 129.17 kg, with a slight decrease of 0.01% week-on-week [22][23]. - The average price of white feather broiler chickens is 7.32 yuan/kg, down 0.68% week-on-week, while chick prices are at 2.84 yuan/bird, down 1.05% [33][48]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For the pig farming sector, companies such as Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff are recommended for investment [4][73]. - The report also suggests focusing on companies in the feed and animal health sectors, such as Haida Group and Ruipu Biological, as their performance is expected to improve [4][73]. - In the planting chain, companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang are highlighted as having significant investment opportunities due to the upward trend in grain prices [4][73]. 4. Commodity Prices - Corn prices have increased to 2387.84 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.34% week-on-week, while soybean meal and wheat prices have decreased by 1.50% and 0.86%, respectively [2][48]. - The report notes a decline in natural rubber prices, with futures at 13695 yuan/ton, down 1.05% week-on-week, influenced by supply and demand dynamics [3][63].