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美元信任危机催生史诗级行情 新兴市场债券创16年最强开局!
智通财经网· 2025-07-07 01:29
Group 1 - The performance of emerging market local currency bonds has reached its best first half in 16 years, driven by a decline in confidence in the US dollar, which has fallen nearly 11% this year [1] - The emerging market local currency bond index has returned over 12% in the first half of the year, outperforming hard currency bonds that rose 5.4% during the same period, marking the strongest increase since 2009 [1] - Significant capital inflows into emerging market bond funds have been observed, with over $21 billion attracted year-to-date, and a weekly inflow of $3.1 billion as of July 2 [1] Group 2 - The outlook for further interest rate cuts in developing countries enhances their attractiveness, with expectations that central banks will have more room to lower rates [4] - Latin American economies have provided some of the best returns, with Mexican local currency bonds (Mbonos) rising 22% and certain Brazilian government bonds yielding over 29% [4] - Improvements in the fundamentals of some emerging markets may lead to new issuers, such as Ghana planning to resume domestic bond issuance in the second half of 2025 [4] Group 3 - Investment preferences are shifting towards Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey, indicating a re-evaluation of exposure to the US market [7] - The process of re-learning about local currency bonds is expected to take time for investors who have not engaged with them for a while [7] - Key countries for overweight positions in emerging market local currency bonds include Colombia, the Philippines, and South Africa [7]