Core Viewpoint - Emerging market bonds and stocks recorded double-digit percentage increases in 2025, with a general positive outlook for 2026 among investors [3][4]. Group 1: Performance of Emerging Markets - Emerging market local currency bonds rose by 18% and stocks increased by 26% in 2025, marking the first time since 2017 that emerging market stocks outperformed U.S. stocks [5]. - The yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to its lowest level in 11 years [5]. - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index achieved a return of 16.71% in 2025, the best since 2009 [5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent survey by Bank of America involving 300 investors showed a lack of pessimism towards emerging markets, with a significant shift in sentiment [6]. - HSBC's December survey indicated that bearish views on emerging market prospects have completely disappeared, reaching a historical high in net bullish sentiment [6]. - U.S. ETFs focused on emerging market stocks attracted nearly $31 billion in 2025, while emerging market bond funds absorbed over $60 billion [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for emerging market assets in 2026, with expectations for high yields and diversification benefits from emerging market bonds [8]. - Focus areas for investment include Central and Eastern Europe, parts of Latin America (like Colombia and Brazil), and Asia (including India, the Philippines, and South Korea) [8]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to see investments in technology sectors and industries with clear advantages, such as the electric vehicle supply chain and renewable energy [8]. Group 4: Economic Context - The global economic growth for developed markets is projected to be around 1% to 1.5%, while emerging markets are expected to show relatively strong growth [10]. - The dollar is anticipated to remain under pressure due to policy divergence and trade tensions, although a short-term rebound is possible [10]. - The investment focus is expected to shift towards global diversification, with emerging markets showing improved fundamentals [10]. Group 5: Currency and Arbitrage Strategies - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial for the sustained strong performance of emerging market currencies [11]. - Investors are advised to consider the potential for continued low volatility in emerging market currencies, which could impact overall returns [13]. - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley predict significant inflows into emerging market bonds due to a weak dollar and the AI investment boom [11].

此外，光大证券国际产品开发及零售研究部分析认为，2026年上半年主要央行将维持宽松政策以稳定经 济。该公司证券策略师伍礼贤表示，恒指明年有机会再次见到30000点以上的水平。 在资金层面，新兴市场也成为全球资金的关注焦点。在美国银行最近在伦敦举行的投资会议上，其新兴 市场固定收益部门主管大卫·豪纳表示，新兴市场的悲观论者已经"绝迹"。摩根大通资产管理公司全球 固定收益主管鲍勃·米歇尔表示，该机构最好的投资策略之一仍然是持有新兴市场本币债券。美国银行 预计，硬通货新兴市场债券将重现2025年的两位数回报。（市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于 第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。） 在政策支持、流动性改善及结构性投资机会的推动下，港股市场将于2025年创下五年最佳年度表现。根 据12月19日的收盘数据，恒生指数全年累计上涨33.25%，收报25690.53点；恒生科技指数累计上涨 25.74%，收报5479.04点。同期，南向资金年内净流入规模已超过1.38万亿港元，创下历史新高。交易 数据显示，南向资金成交额占市场总成交额的比例（12个月平均）从年初的47%升至61%。市场的突出 表现伴随着显著的 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2025年，新兴市场无视关税、贸易战和全球动荡，取得了两位数的亮眼回报，投资 者正期望明年能够再次取得同样的成绩。 多年来，新兴市场各国政府和央行做出了艰难的政策选择，这使得曾经风险较高的新兴市场资产在美国 和欧洲的政治经济阴云以及日益加剧的地缘政治分裂面前显得稳固。 Manulife Investment Management董事总经理Elina Theodorakopoulou表示："今年有很多利好因素可以延 续到明年，尤其是考虑到今年的表现有多么出色和辉煌。"Theodorakopoulou强调了"良好的政策和好运 的结合"。 新的避险天堂? 投资者表示，尽管美联储受到抨击，但新兴市场央行展现出了独立性和稳健的政策制定能力。 M&G新兴市场债务主管Charles de Quinsonas表示："就货币政策而言，新兴市场的信誉度可能达到了前 所未有的高度。实际上，他们甚至比美联储更早降息，但他们并没有过度降息，这有助于货币保持相当 强的韧性。" 审慎的货币政策帮助新兴市场货币跑赢大盘，而美元则持续疲软。这极大地激发了投资者对新兴市场本 币债券的兴趣，今年以来，这类债券的回报率约为18% ...

Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold has surpassed $4160 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.07% [1] Energy and Shipping Futures - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its oil production policy unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 during the upcoming meeting [2] Agricultural Futures - The main contract for coking coal has decreased by 2% today, currently priced at 1053.50 yuan per ton [3] Base Metals Futures - The main contract for glass has increased by 2% today, currently priced at 1062.00 yuan per ton [4] Macro and Market Impact - Major banks on Wall Street maintain an optimistic outlook for emerging markets in 2026, anticipating that a weak dollar and investment boom in artificial intelligence will drive further growth in this asset class, with local currency bond returns potentially reaching 7%, the best performance since 2020; Morgan Stanley notes that further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may support continued gains, recommending to maintain long positions in emerging market local currency bonds, with expected returns of around 8% by mid-2026 [5]

Group 1 - Wall Street maintains an optimistic outlook for emerging markets in 2026, driven by a weak dollar and investment in artificial intelligence, with expected returns of 7% for local currency bonds, the best performance since 2020 [4][5] - Morgan Stanley strategists suggest maintaining long positions in emerging market local currency bonds, predicting returns of around 8% by mid-2026, and high single-digit gains for emerging market dollar bonds over the next 12 months [5] Group 2 - Gold prices have declined from a near two-week high as traders assess the possibility of a U.S. rate cut in December, with spot gold at $4,157.29 per ounce, down 0.2% [7] - UK Bank of England policymaker Green indicated that measures to reduce household energy bills by £150 ($199) annually may help lower inflation expectations, although the policy's impact remains unclear [8][9] Group 3 - Dutch prosecutors have fined Morgan Stanley €101 million ($117.1 million) for dividend tax evasion, separate from tax liabilities to the Dutch tax authority due by the end of 2024 [11] Group 4 - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Ukrainian and U.S. delegations will meet this week to discuss peace and security arrangements following Geneva talks [13][14] Group 5 - OPEC+ is expected to maintain current oil production levels in an upcoming meeting and may agree on a mechanism to assess member countries' maximum production capacity [16]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley recommends maintaining long positions in emerging market local currency bonds, expecting a return of around 8% by mid-2026 due to a potential slowdown in the US economy and further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 1: Emerging Market Bonds - The firm anticipates a "high single-digit" increase in emerging market dollar bonds over the next 12 months [1]. - James Lord, head of emerging market FX strategy at Morgan Stanley, stated that Fed rate cuts will exert downward pressure on the dollar, which will help lower US Treasury yields and create a favorable environment for emerging markets [1].

Core Insights - Emerging markets are experiencing significant concerns among asset managers due to overcrowded trades, particularly in Brazilian real and AI-related stocks, leading to warnings of an inevitable pullback [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has seen a nearly 30% increase this year, marking the longest consecutive monthly rise in over two decades, with potential for the best annual performance since 2017 [2][5] - Historical lessons indicate that after significant gains, such as in 2017, emerging markets can face sharp declines due to factors like hawkish Federal Reserve policies and trade conflicts [5] Market Performance - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen approximately 30% year-to-date, with expectations for the best annual performance since 2017 [2] - A tracking indicator for emerging market local currency bonds is on track for its best returns in six years, with 61% of surveyed investors net overweighting these bonds [5] Investor Sentiment - Investors are showing excessive optimism towards emerging markets, with warnings from analysts that a market correction is likely due to high valuations not reflecting underlying risks [1][5] - A significant portion of investors (61%) are now net overweighting emerging market local currency bonds, a stark contrast to a negative sentiment just a few months prior [5] Regional Insights - Asian technology stocks have faced severe sell-offs, with the Korean Kospi index experiencing a drop of over 6% in a single trading day, highlighting the risks associated with extreme valuations [6][7] - The Brazilian real has seen a return of approximately 30% this year, but concerns about overcrowded positions and fiscal worries are emerging [9][10] Currency and Bond Markets - Currency arbitrage trades, particularly in the Brazilian real, are under pressure as market sentiment shifts towards bearish positions [9] - The Hungarian forint has delivered a 27% return in dollar arbitrage trades, but potential political changes could impact future performance [10] Liquidity Concerns - Frontier markets have benefited from capital outflows from U.S. assets, but warnings are being issued regarding potential liquidity risks in markets like Egypt and Ghana during periods of heightened volatility [10]

Core Insights - Emerging market trades, particularly long positions in Brazilian real and AI-related stocks, are raising concerns due to overcrowding risks [1][3] - Asset management firms are warning that valuations of Latin American currencies have deviated from fundamentals, indicating potential risks [1][6] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has seen a nearly 30% increase this year, marking its best performance since 2017, but past trends suggest a possible significant downturn could follow [3][4] Group 1: Emerging Market Concerns - Many emerging market sectors are showing signs of overheating, driven by factors such as Fed rate cuts and a softening dollar [3] - A recent HSBC survey indicated that 61% of investors are overweight in emerging market local currency bonds, a significant shift from a net underweight in June [3] - The potential for profit-taking as the year ends may lead to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [3][4] Group 2: Specific Market Risks - Asian stock investors experienced risks associated with high valuations and crowded trades, particularly in AI stocks [4] - The Korean Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) saw a significant drop despite a previous surge, highlighting the risks of concentrated positions in AI-related trades [4] - Lazard Asset Management's portfolio manager expressed caution after the tech stock sell-off, noting that low-quality companies have been outperforming high-quality ones, which historically does not last [5] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Dynamics - Brazilian real has been a standout asset for carry trades, but recent indicators suggest a shift towards bearish sentiment [6] - Other Latin American currencies, such as Chilean, Mexican, and Colombian pesos, are also showing signs of overvaluation [6] - Frontier market bonds have benefited from a trend of investors moving away from U.S. assets, but concerns about liquidity in markets like Egypt and Ghana are emerging [7]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in global central bank monetary policies is leading to significant capital flows towards emerging markets, which are seen as having favorable investment opportunities due to lower inflation pressures and resilient economic growth prospects [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is cautiously proceeding with interest rate cuts, while the European Central Bank has paused its actions, and the Bank of Japan is signaling potential rate hikes [2][3]. - Emerging market countries are accelerating their rate cuts, with Mexico and Poland recently lowering their rates to the lowest levels since 2022 [2][4]. - The divergence in monetary policies reflects a broader trend of easing to support economic growth amid weakening inflation expectations [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are benefiting from a larger space for rate cuts, which supports potential returns on local currency bonds and equities [4][5]. - The consumer price index in emerging markets has shown a rare reversal, with an average inflation rate dropping to 2.47% from July to September, compared to 3.32% in developed economies [4][6]. - The overall decline in inflation pressure in emerging markets allows for more supportive monetary policies, enhancing their attractiveness for investment [4][6]. Group 3: Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - The current interest rate differentials are influencing global capital flows, with emerging markets generally offering higher interest rates than developed economies [5][6]. - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to favor emerging market assets, as capital seeks regions with greater potential [6][7]. - Market sentiment is optimistic about the investment potential in emerging markets, particularly in bonds and equities, despite warnings of potential corrections in global stock markets [7][8].

Global Central Bank Policy Divergence - Major developed economies are experiencing varied interest rate policies, with the Federal Reserve cautiously lowering rates, the European Central Bank pausing actions, and the Bank of Japan signaling potential rate hikes [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's future rate cuts remain uncertain due to a lack of key economic data amid a prolonged government shutdown [1][2] - The European Central Bank has maintained its deposit rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, with expectations to keep rates unchanged in December [1][2] Emerging Market Rate Cuts - Several emerging market countries are accelerating their rate cuts, with Mexico's central bank lowering rates by 25 basis points to 7.25%, the lowest since May 2022 [2] - Poland's central bank also announced its fifth rate cut of the year, while other countries like the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia followed suit with similar reductions [2] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with further cuts anticipated by the end of 2026 [2] Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are seen as benefiting from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, with greater room for monetary easing and resilient economic growth prospects [4][6] - The consumer price index in emerging markets has shown a rare reversal, with an average inflation rate dropping to 2.47% from July to September, compared to 3.32% in developed economies [4] - The decline in inflation pressure in emerging markets allows for more supportive monetary policies, enhancing investment opportunities in local currency bonds and equities [4][6] Capital Flows and Dollar Dynamics - The divergence in monetary policy reflects changes in interest rate differentials, influencing global capital flows towards emerging markets [5][6] - Emerging markets generally maintain higher interest rates than developed economies, providing significant potential for economic growth through rate cuts [6] - The weakening dollar is expected to favor emerging market assets, as capital seeks regions with greater potential for returns [6] Future Outlook for Emerging Markets - Market sentiment is optimistic regarding the investment potential in emerging markets, particularly in the bond sector, supported by improving fundamentals and attractive yields [7] - Despite warnings of potential market corrections, structural opportunities in markets like China, Japan, and India are highlighted as key areas for investment [7] - The recent performance of emerging market stocks has been strong, driven by a search for value and safe havens amid global risk asset sell-offs [7]