Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rebound of the US dollar has led some emerging market investors to believe that the dollar will continue to strengthen in the coming months, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising by 2.7% in July, ending a six-month decline, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell by 1.2% [1] - Barclays advises clients to avoid shorting the dollar against Asian currencies and instead recommends going long on the dollar against certain low-yielding currencies in the region, indicating a cautious stance on betting against the dollar during the summer [1] - Barclays prefers to completely avoid relative value trades involving the dollar, such as betting on the Singapore dollar weakening against the renminbi or shorting the Thai baht against the Korean won [1] Group 2 - Fidelity International suggests that the attractiveness of the dollar as a funding currency for arbitrage trades is declining due to the potential for US interest rates to remain high for an extended period, recommending consideration of lower-cost alternative funding currencies [2] - T. Rowe Price Group favors dollar-denominated emerging market bonds over local currency bonds as a tactical trade, noting that last month, emerging market dollar bonds outperformed local currency bonds with a return of 0.9% compared to -0.9% for local currency bonds [2] - T. Rowe Price's fund manager in Hong Kong expresses a preference for holding dollar-denominated emerging market bonds due to their more attractive yields, while indicating that the dollar may enter a consolidation phase over the next three to six months, posing challenges for local currency bond returns [2]

Group 1 - The performance of emerging market local currency bonds has reached its best first half in 16 years, driven by a decline in confidence in the US dollar, which has fallen nearly 11% this year [1] - The emerging market local currency bond index has returned over 12% in the first half of the year, outperforming hard currency bonds that rose 5.4% during the same period, marking the strongest increase since 2009 [1] - Significant capital inflows into emerging market bond funds have been observed, with over $21 billion attracted year-to-date, and a weekly inflow of $3.1 billion as of July 2 [1] Group 2 - The outlook for further interest rate cuts in developing countries enhances their attractiveness, with expectations that central banks will have more room to lower rates [4] - Latin American economies have provided some of the best returns, with Mexican local currency bonds (Mbonos) rising 22% and certain Brazilian government bonds yielding over 29% [4] - Improvements in the fundamentals of some emerging markets may lead to new issuers, such as Ghana planning to resume domestic bond issuance in the second half of 2025 [4] Group 3 - Investment preferences are shifting towards Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey, indicating a re-evaluation of exposure to the US market [7] - The process of re-learning about local currency bonds is expected to take time for investors who have not engaged with them for a while [7] - Key countries for overweight positions in emerging market local currency bonds include Colombia, the Philippines, and South Africa [7]

资深新兴市场投资者、有"新兴市场教父"之称的麦朴思（Mark Mobius）表示，鉴于贸易相关的不确定 性可能持续长达六个月，他已将其基金的大部分持仓维持在现金中。 麦朴思周三在接受采访时表示："在这个阶段，现金为王。所以我基金里95%的资金都是现金。目前， 我们必须保留现金，并在时机成熟时做好行动准备。" 麦朴思已经投资新兴市场约三十年，他表示，印度等一些新兴市场国家在这种环境下会表现相当不 错，"但我们必须等到这一切稳定下来，看到这种不确定性平息。" 他表示，投资者可能只有在贸易谈判在未来四到六个月内进行后，才能评估市场机会。麦朴思补充说， 他不会持有如此多现金"超过三到四个月"，并将根据机会所在地开始部署部分资金。"如果市场进一步 下跌，我们当然会投入更多资金。" Brandywine的Lye表示，令投资者对新兴市场感到意外的是普遍的说法和预期，即在美国经济衰退即将 来临的情况下，新兴市场"不会挺住"。 她表示："我认为很多人已被证明是错误的，因为它们（新兴市场）正在挺住。"她补充说，其中一些国 家有足够的财政缓冲和货币空间来抵消增长担忧。 目前，投资者已大量涌入新兴市场债券，因为在美国总统特朗普的"对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty caused by "reciprocal tariffs" is leading international asset management institutions to adopt a cautious stance towards sensitive assets, while seeking more stable and attractive investments in other regions like Europe and emerging markets to mitigate the impact of ongoing tariff policy fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is currently in a consolidation phase, with firms like Schroders recommending a gradual reduction in long positions on U.S. financial stocks due to a flatter yield curve [2]. - Allianz Investment suggests a cautious approach to U.S. equities, citing increased uncertainty from tariffs, rising recession risks, and weakening economic growth and inflation outlooks [2]. - Fidelity International notes that the U.S. economy shows signs of weakness, with indicators such as small business metrics and consumer confidence reflecting this trend [2][3]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Market - Fidelity International highlights significant volatility in the U.S. fixed income market, with the MOVE index nearing pandemic-era highs, enhancing the relative attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries [4]. - The current yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is around 4%, while the dividend yield of S&P 500 constituents is approximately 1.4%, making Treasuries a favorable investment option [4]. - Allianz Investment maintains a selective investment strategy in fixed income, expressing caution about the overall outlook for U.S. Treasuries while recognizing potential benefits for European local bonds due to U.S. market instability [5]. Group 3: Global Investment Opportunities - Asset management firms are expanding their investment focus globally, with Fidelity International identifying resilient local demand-driven stocks and emerging market local currency bonds as attractive options [6]. - Schroders advocates for a diversified global investment strategy, shifting focus from U.S. markets to European markets and emerging market equities, while also emphasizing the importance of gold as a strategic diversification tool [8]. - Loomis Sayles expresses optimism for global equities for the remainder of the year, favoring value stocks and small-cap stocks over growth and large-cap stocks, while increasing allocation to Europe and China [7].