2026-03-09 行业周报 看好/维持 航空航天与国防Ⅲ 工业资本货物 军工行业周报（2026.03.02-2026.03.08）：2026 年中国国防预算增长 7% 走势比较 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Mar/25 Apr/25 May/25 Jun/25 Jul/25 Aug/25 Sep/25 Oct/25 Nov/25 Dec/25 Jan/26 Feb/26 航空航天与国防 沪深300 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 报告摘要 本周要闻： 风险提示： 军品订单增长不及预期；产品交付进度不及预期；军品采购价格 波动风险等。 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 2026 年中国国防预算增长 7% 据新华社消息，根据 3 月 5 日公布的 2026 年中央和地方财政预 算草案报告，2026 年我国国防支出为 19095.61 亿元人民币，同比增 长 7%，较 2025 年的 7.2%小幅下调。这也是中国国防预算连续 11 年 维持个位数增长。从 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [37]. Core Insights - China's defense budget for 2026 is set at 1,909.561 billion RMB, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase, slightly down from 7.2% in 2025. This marks the 11th consecutive year of single-digit growth in defense spending [3][15]. - The proportion of defense spending to GDP remains below 1.5%, which is lower than the average of major military powers globally. There is significant room for growth in defense spending, potentially exceeding GDP growth by around 2 percentage points in the long term [4][9]. - The structure of defense spending is expected to shift towards new domains and qualities, driven by the evolution of modern warfare towards information and intelligence. The industry is anticipated to enter a rapid development phase supported by both domestic demand and foreign trade [4][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Insights - The defense budget growth has consistently been around 7% in recent years, with a stable proportion of defense spending to GDP. The expectation is for continued growth in defense spending, particularly in areas such as next-generation fighter jets, low-cost munitions, unmanned equipment, low-altitude economy, and commercial aerospace [4][9]. Market Performance - In the recent week, the aerospace and defense index fell by 1.64%, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.41%. However, for the month, the aerospace and defense index saw an increase of 5.60%, compared to a 1.18% rise in the CSI 300 index [10]. Industry News - The recent publication of the 2026 central and local fiscal budget draft indicates a continued commitment to defense spending, emphasizing the need for a strong defense to safeguard national sovereignty and security [15]. - A guideline for the construction of a low-altitude economy standard system has been released, aiming to establish over 300 internationally compatible standards by 2030, which will support the healthy development of the low-altitude economy [17]. Company Tracking - New Light Optoelectronics has received a bid notification for a project worth 45.511 million RMB, which is expected to positively impact future performance [21]. - Jianglong Shipbuilding's major shareholders plan to reduce their holdings, which may affect stock performance [22]. - New Jingang's subsidiary has been re-certified as a high-tech enterprise, indicating ongoing innovation and development [23].

Core Insights - The report highlights the establishment of a national-level merger fund by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which is expected to leverage over 1 trillion yuan in various funds [4] - The People's Bank of China plans to flexibly and efficiently utilize various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, throughout the year [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding high-quality high school education and undergraduate capacity as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" to address the peak of school-age population [4] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will vigorously promote the "AI + manufacturing" initiative, which is expected to catalyze the industrial intelligence sector, with related stocks including Zhongkong Technology (688777) and Dingjie Smart (300378) [5] - The commercialization path for large models is expected to drive sustained demand for computing power, with related stocks such as Henghua Technology (300365) and Hailanxin (300065) [5] - Rapid advancements in AI are driving demand, with institutions predicting that the price increase cycle for MLCC (multi-layer ceramic capacitors) may continue until 2026, involving stocks like Guoci Materials (300285) and Hongda Electronics (300726) [5] Company Focus - Xinguang Optoelectronics (688011) has won a bid for a composite projection and switching optical system project worth 45.51 million yuan [6] - Huicheng Environmental Protection (300779) has developed a proprietary deep catalytic cracking technology for mixed waste plastics, converting them into high-value chemical raw materials [6] - Zhonglun New Materials (301565) has confirmed that its procurement and transportation of electrical-grade polypropylene do not involve the Middle East [6] - Hualian Holdings (000036) has completed its full technology chain layout for high-purity lithium hydroxide through participation in an industrial fund [6] Market Review and Outlook - On March 6, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index opened lower but closed higher, while the ChiNext Index experienced a pullback after a brief surge [7] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 189.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [7] - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in A-shares through 2026, despite potential external conflicts affecting market rhythm [7] - Key investment themes include price increase sectors and technology, with a focus on service consumption opportunities, particularly in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, oil, and coal [7] - The report projects that by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," the core industries of the digital economy will account for 12.5% of GDP, with significant growth expected in AI applications and the new energy sector [7]